Vladimir Miklashevsky, Economist at Danske, maintains the outlook for rouble, noting that the currency will remain driven by oil.
Key Quotes
“Before the talks in Minsk began, the rouble market switched from ‘the oil mode’ into a ‘headline driven’ one.”
“After today’s opening the rouble entered the ‘red zone’, with a sharp fall of 3.5% against the USD, but corrected on the first news of the agreement on a ceasefire.”
“Despite much positive news from the negotiations in Minsk, we do not see the new deal as a game changer for the rouble market and Russian assets in the medium term. Autonomy for the Donbass region or Ukraine’s federalisation has not been agreed on (backed by Russia) neither is the situation returning to that pre-crisis (backed by Ukraine).”
“We consider that the geopolitical situation still remains fragile and believe the rouble continues to be mostly oil price driven, returning to 66-67 against the USD at Brent at USD56/bl.”
“Thus, we keep our view on the rouble unchanged, as there is no major support from Russia’s macro figures visible for 2015.”
Key Quotes
“Before the talks in Minsk began, the rouble market switched from ‘the oil mode’ into a ‘headline driven’ one.”
“After today’s opening the rouble entered the ‘red zone’, with a sharp fall of 3.5% against the USD, but corrected on the first news of the agreement on a ceasefire.”
“Despite much positive news from the negotiations in Minsk, we do not see the new deal as a game changer for the rouble market and Russian assets in the medium term. Autonomy for the Donbass region or Ukraine’s federalisation has not been agreed on (backed by Russia) neither is the situation returning to that pre-crisis (backed by Ukraine).”
“We consider that the geopolitical situation still remains fragile and believe the rouble continues to be mostly oil price driven, returning to 66-67 against the USD at Brent at USD56/bl.”
“Thus, we keep our view on the rouble unchanged, as there is no major support from Russia’s macro figures visible for 2015.”
