GOLD (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis 2014, 28.12 - 2015, 04.01: Ranging Bullish

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newdigital, 2014.12.26 19:33

Forex Weekly Outlook Dec 29- Jan 2 ( based on forexcrunch article)

We end 2014 with US CB Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Claims and open 2015 with US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Join our weekly outlook with the main market movers to impact Forex trading. Happy 2015!

Last week, the final revision to US GDP in Q3 came out better than expected, crossing the 4% growth rate for the second consecutive quarter. US economy expanded 5% between July and September, beating the preliminary estimate of 3.9% and the median forecast of 4.3%. The strong expansion indicates the US economy will close 2014 on a strong note. More positive data was released from the US labor market with a continued decline in the number of initial unemployment claims, noting the US job market continues to improve with increased hiring and fewer dismissals. Will the US economy continue to expand in 2015?

1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence declined in November to a five month low of 88.7 after posting 94.5 in October. Consumer’s confidence regarding current-business conditions and short-term outlook dropped considerably. Analysts expected confidence to rise to 95.9. Economists expect consumer sentiment will reach 94.6 in December.
2. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits declined last week to its lowest level since early November, indicating the job market continues to demonstrate strength. Initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000. Economists expected claims to reach 290,000. The less volatile four-week moving average fell 8,500 to 290,250 indicating companies seek to hold on to their workers and hire new ones. The number of weekly claims is expected to reach 287,000 this week.
3. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. The U.S. manufacturing sector lost momentum in November, reaching 58.7 after a 59 points reading in the prior month. Economists expected a lower figure of 57.9. New Orders Index increased to 66, from October’s reading of 65.8; the Production Index reached 64.4%, down from the previous reading of 64.8; and the Employment Index declined to 54.9, compared to the precious reading of 55.5. Lower energy prices gave a boost to the manufacturing sector, increasing consumer’s demand and the continued strength of the Us labor market also contributes to growth. Manufacturing PMI is forested to reach 57.6 this time.

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newdigital, 2014.12.27 11:59

Gold Price 2015: Forecasts And Predictions

The key theme on the gold price chart are the two trading ranges since gold’s all time highs. One trading range started end of 2011 and lasted till early 2013, the second one is still in play. In technical terms, both trading ranges took the form of a descending triangle.



Earlier this year, gold analyst Ronald-Peter Stoeferle released its gold price model for 2015 and beyond. Based on weighted probabilities, his model shows a long-term gold price of USD 1,515 per ounce. The distribution of gold price expectations remains positively skewed as evidenced by the following chart. Therefore, should there be a deviation from the currently widely expected path towards stabilization of the central banks’ balance sheet, significant upside potential for the gold price would result.

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newdigital, 2014.12.27 12:03

Gold rebound coming in 2015: George Gero during a CNBC interview for “Futures Now” (based on cnbc article)

According to George Gero of RBC Capital Markets, gold is set to reverse its trend in 2015. During a CNBC interview for “Futures Now” he observed: “The decline from the $1,900s down to the $1,150s is a major decline, and it was reflected by all the funds fleeing gold and running into better-performing assets, whether it’s equities or debt, and that’s been continuing. In 2014, gold hasn’t been helped by the dollar’s rally. The greenback has shown serious strength against other currencies, which has reduced gold’s attractiveness. After all, since gold is priced in dollars, an increase in the value of a dollar means a decrease in the value of an ounce of gold. Additionally, since people buy gold to hedge against potential inflation, ebbing inflation fears dull gold’s appeal.”

Gero acknowledges that the sell off in crude is anti-inflationary—so the people that have been looking for inflation haven’t really found it. But he adds that “now you’re going to see some changes based on all the stimulus in Europe, in China and in Japan.

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newdigital, 2014.12.27 12:12

Gold: The Year Ahead (based on goldseek artricle)

• U.S. economic performance and monetary policy is key – but under almost any economic scenario, I see gold appreciating.
• Despite a few recent positive indicators – and the benefit of lower energy costs – I see the macro economy stumbling in the months ahead.  This past year, the gold price has been negatively impacted by expectations the Fed will begin raising interest rates and shifting monetary policy away from accommodation.  
• Just as the market’s expectations of higher interest rates have been a negative for gold, a reversal in interest-rate expectations will be a plus for gold in the coming year.
• Over the past three years, Wall Street’s booming stock and bond markets have been tough competitors to gold. 
• During this time, institutional investors and traders have shunned gold, preferring to put their money into ordinary stocks and bonds where high returns have seemed assured.  One indicator has been the fire-sale of hundreds of tons of metal by exchange-traded funds.  These sales have now slowed to a trickle – and much of the metal previously in weak hands has now moved to long-term gold bulls in Asia.   
• We expect a dose of realism and a substantial correction (or worse) on Wall Street will reverse the flow of investment and speculative funds away from stocks and bonds back into gold. 
• Even if I’m wrong and the U.S. economy continues to gather momentum, gold’s long-term prospects still look bright. 
• Under this rosy scenario, renewed Federal Reserve monetary restraint along with higher-than-expected interest rates would scuttle the advance in equity and bond prices, sending a growing number of investors back to gold. 
• Don’t forget the insatiable appetite for gold in China, India, and other East Asian markets.  Investors in this region will continue buying gold however their economies perform.  This year, India and China, the world’s largest gold markets, will have bought over 2000 tons – and this is likely to rise in the year ahead thanks to a relaxation of import restrictions in India and a flight from equity and real-estate investment in China as the economy slips into a lower growth trajectory. 
• Last but not least, a growing number of central banks will continue buying gold to diversify their official monetary reserves away from excessive U.S. dollar exposure.  Importantly, these are long-term acquisitions and most of this metal will not come back to the market anytime soon, possibly for decades or longer. 

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newdigital, 2014.12.28 09:55

Gold Prices Likely To Start 2015 Weak, But Rise Into Year End (based on kitco article)

Gold prices could be under some pressure in the first half of 2015 as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but once the Fed moves, the yellow metal may be able to end the year on firmer footing. Market watchers said once the Fed starts the cycle of interest rate increases, the market can focus on how high the rates may rise, which will be less of a weight since the expectation is that rates won’t rise very much. Higher interest rates are bearish for gold because they give investors a reason to move money into investment vehicles that produce a yield. Gold has no yield.

“Looming Federal Reserve interest rate increases in the second half of 2015 and the stronger U.S. dollar will keep pressure on gold prices through the year. The gold market could see rallies if demand improves for physical gold, but weaker growth in much of the world will temper such prospects,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist, U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

Erica Rannestad, senior analyst, precious metals demand, Thomson Reuters GFMS, agreed that gold prices will likely be lower in the first half of the year because of the Fed’s expected action, which she called “the top driver” for gold-price direction.

She said gold prices will likely consolidate next year, and lists and a 2015 average price $1,175, with prices trending higher in the second half of the year.

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newdigital, 2014.12.28 10:07

JP Morgan lowers gold, silver forecasts on slack buying interest (based on bulliondesk article)

JP Morgan has lowered its 2015 and 2016 average gold and silver price forecasts on reduced demand from investors and consumers.

The broker reduced its 2014 gold forecast by two percent to $1,275 per ounce because these key supportive factors have been underperforming throughout the year.

“While seasonal, physical buying emerged in Asian markets in September after a drop in price, many headwinds strengthened at the same time,” it said.

“The Asian gold consumer – a major supportive factor last year – proved to be very price sensitive and has been unwilling to step into the market at prices above $1,260,” it added. “Gold investors, in both Western and Asian countries, have also been largely absent from the market for the majority of this year.”

The bank also revised its forecast for 2015 four percent lower to $1,220 per ounce, citing lower inflation, reduced inflation expectations, higher US interest rates and a stronger US dollar.

The spot gold price was last at $1,146.50/1,147.30 per ounce, up $3.30 on Wednesday’s close, with the dollar at a near-two-year high against the euro at 1.2422.

The bank also downgraded its silver price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 – it now sees silver averaging $19.56 per ounce this year, down five percent on the previous forecast of $20.52. It also forecast silver to average $18.25 in 2015, down 12 percent on its previous prediction of $20.75.

Silver bottomed out at $15.39/15.43 per ounce earlier, just above the low of $15.15 it hit yesterday, which was the lowest since February 2010.

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newdigital, 2014.12.28 18:12

Risk Of Russian Gold Selling? (based on binaryoptionevolution article)

"The situation in Russia raises concerns within the precious metals market that the central bank might sell its holdings of gold and palladium. The amount of palladium holdings is unknown, but for gold, the Central Bank of Russia is currently the sixth largest holder of the metal at 1,168.7 tonnes, after having built up its gold reserves over the last several years. The CBR's gold holdings make up about 10.2% of total reserves.

...Russia's gold reserves are worth about $45bn around current price levels. To put this into context, the CBR's currency intervention year-to-date has been more than $80bn. Even if the entire gold position was liquidated, it would clearly not be enough to defend the rouble

Although the possibility cannot be ruled out with certainty, we think the risk that Russia will sell its precious metals holdings is probably small."

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newdigital, 2014.12.28 18:20

Gold Near Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Trading Week (adapted from Forbes article)

Gold prices are trading not far from unchanged in quieter dealings early U.S. trading Monday. The Christmas holiday on Thursday is making for thin volumes as many players are already off for the week. February Comex gold was last up $0.20 at $1,195.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last up $1.30 at $1,196.00. March Comex silver last traded down $0.01 at $16.02 an ounce.

Trading activity could briefly pick up Tuesday. The main U.S. economic report on tap this week will be the third-quarter gross domestic product report on Tuesday. GDP is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus the previous reading of up 3.9%. Tuesday could be the busiest trading day of the week as there are also several other key U.S. economic reports due out. Look for trading activity to then quickly fade ahead of the Christmas holiday Thursday, and to remain light until the new year begins.

European and Asian markets were also quieter overnight. The feature in Europe was the Italian 10-year bond yield fell to a record low of 1.68%, reports said. Ironically, EU country bond yields are falling when anxiety about the health of the European Union is rising. A main reason for this paradox is that there are also heavy odds in favor of the European Central Bank initiating quantitative easing of its monetary policy next year. That prospect is leading investors to put their likely deflating Euros into even shaky EU governments’ debt.

The Russian ruble is stable Monday, following last week’s turmoil. Last week the ruble fell to 80 versus the U.S. dollar and was trading at 57 to the greenback on Monday.

Crude oil prices are also stable Monday following the big plunge in recent months that saw prices last week hit a five-year low. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said in reports Monday that crude oil prices may never reach the $100 mark again.

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newdigital, 2014.12.29 19:21

Gold Lower as Markets Digest Greek Vote (based on foxbusiness article)

Gold edged lower on Monday, giving up some of the previous session's sharp short-covering gains, but uncertainty over the prospect of fresh elections in Greece kept the metal underpinned near $1,200 an ounce.

European shares and periphery euro zone bonds tumbled after the Greek parliament rejected the government's presidential candidate, setting the stage for an election that the anti bailout Syriza could win.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,192.50 an ounce by 1415 GMT, after a gain of 1.8 percent on Friday, when it had touched $1,199, its highest since Dec. 22 and its biggest one-day jump in 2-1/2 weeks.

Bullion's rise came in thin market conditions due to the Christmas and year-end holidays and it was unclear whether the last session's gains would be maintained when trading picked up again.

"Friday's sharp move was a typical non liquidity move, so naturally enough it gives back a bit today," Saxo Bank's head of commodity research Ole Hansen said. "We are less than 1 percent away from where we finished a year ago, and I do not think we will sway much away from current prices."

"(The news from Athens) raises the risk of Grexit (Greek euro exit) once again - not the best climate for Europe to begin the new year," he added. "That could provide some support, although we need traders willing to put on risk and they are currently missing."

U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down $2.20 an ounce at $1,193.10.

Bearish sentiment in the bullion market was evident in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. The fund's holdings fell 0.08 percent to 712.30 tonnes on Friday, a six-year low.

Demand for the metal was soft overnight in Asia, the primary market for physical gold dealing.

"The premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was rather uninspiring, trading between par and $1 above spot for most of the day," MKS said in a note.

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newdigital, 2014.12.30 06:12

Gold and Silver Prices in 2015 (based on moneymorning article)

Precious metals haven't grabbed dramatic headlines like oil and gas have.

But their story is no less exiting. And the metals remain a fundamentally critical part of the global economic and strategic landscape.

Indeed, gold and silver took roller coaster-like rides throughout the year, both screeching towards their respective price lows before bouncing, albeit cautiously, ahead.

With the benefit of hindsight and the value of foresight, it's time to look at how gold and silver acted in 2014, and what we can do to profit in 2015.

As you follow along with the graph, note that gold started out with a bang, bottoming around $1,195 December 19, 2013, then surging upward 12% to $1,390 by mid-March. It then headed back to the $1,300 level, and meandered sideways between $1,250 and $1,350 until mid-year.

The U.S. dollar began a strong climb from July onwards, likely in anticipation of the Fed ending its asset purchase program in October, as it ultimately did.

By November the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the largest gold ETF, saw its gold holdings at six-year lows. Gold had become almost universally hated, which may well have marked the bottom.

And then it embarked on a new rise…

One of the biggest positives is how gold held up over the recent months: as oil prices plunged 27% from early November into mid-December, gold climbed by 7%.

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newdigital, 2014.12.31 05:47

Gold Climbs Above $1,200; Silver Rises (based on blogs.barrons article)

Gold finished higher Tuesday after notching small losses the day before.

Gold for February delivery rose 1.6% to $1,200.40. Silver for March delivery rose 3.2% to $16.28.

Concerns about Greece’s fast-approaching elections amid a looming deadline related to the country’s debt bailout were helping gold, along with weakness in the U.S. dollar.

However, while gold is up for the week, it will still need to rise at least 0.2% tomorrow to not end 2014 in the red.

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newdigital, 2014.12.31 22:52

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newdigital, 2015.01.02 10:06

Gold continues to shine as the best safe haven (based on smh.com.au article)

Gold has retained its status as a safe-haven investment, despite the rising strength of the US dollar and turmoil elsewhere in commodity markets.

The price has remained stable in 2014 and what's more, experts believe that the long-term outlook for the precious metal is well supported over the coming year. The price of gold ended 2014 almost unchanged on 12 months ago, closing on Wednesday at around $US1,184 ($1,449.48) an ounce after starting the year at $US1,205. Fears of a crash in the price were overblown.

Goldman Sachs has now set its long-term forecast for the price of the yellow metal at $US1,200 an ounce for the next three years.

The investment bank estimates that this is the break-even price for the majority of gold miners once all costs such as exploration, management and mine repairs are included.

As such, the price of gold may well fall below $US1,200 in the year ahead, but lower prices would force loss-making miners out of business and reduce supply, helping prices to recover eventually.

Mark Bristow, chief executive of FTSE 100 miner Randgold Resources, has said: "The [gold-mining] industry is clearly stuffed at $US1,140 and it will be a bloodbath at $US1,000."

Hunter Hillcoat, from broker Investec's natural resources team, has set a price forecast of $US1,150 an ounce for next year. The Investec team sees a resurgence in the US dollar, rising interest rates and falling inflation as challenges for the year ahead.

The price of gold has an inverse relationship with the world's reserve currency, the US dollar. A fundamental shift in American monetary policy last year has removed the main driving factor behind the price of gold during the past decade.

As the price of gold has fallen from a peak of $US1,900 in May 2011, investors have reduced their exposure. Holdings in gold exchange-traded funds, which allow investors to buy shares in a fund that tracks the gold price, have fallen in the past 12 months.

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newdigital, 2015.01.03 11:07

Gold forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

Gold markets did very little during the course of the week, essentially bouncing around just below the $1200 handle. Because of this, it appears of the market is ready to go sideways in the near term, although there is still a bit more of a negative bias at the moment. If we managed to get above the $1250 level, at that point time we would be comfortable with longer-term buying opportunities. Ultimately though, we feel that this market really doesn’t have a lot of momentum one way or the other, so therefore we are on the sidelines as far as long-term trades are concerned.