Gold Climbs Above $1,200; Silver Rises (based on blogs.barrons article)
Gold finished higher Tuesday after notching small losses the day before.
Gold for February delivery rose 1.6% to $1,200.40. Silver for March delivery rose 3.2% to $16.28.
Concerns about Greece’s fast-approaching elections amid a looming deadline related to the country’s debt bailout were helping gold, along with weakness in the U.S. dollar.
However, while gold is up for the week, it will still need to rise at least 0.2% tomorrow to not end 2014 in the red.
Gold continues to shine as the best safe haven (based on smh.com.au article)
Gold has retained its status as a safe-haven investment, despite the
rising strength of the US dollar and turmoil elsewhere in commodity
The price has remained stable in 2014 and what's more,
experts believe that the long-term outlook for the precious metal is
well supported over the coming year. The price of gold ended 2014 almost
unchanged on 12 months ago, closing on Wednesday at around $US1,184
($1,449.48) an ounce after starting the year at $US1,205. Fears of a
crash in the price were overblown.
Goldman Sachs has now set its long-term forecast for the
price of the yellow metal at $US1,200 an ounce for the next three years.
The investment bank estimates that this is the break-even
price for the majority of gold miners once all costs such as
exploration, management and mine repairs are included.
As such, the price of gold may well fall below $US1,200 in the year
ahead, but lower prices would force loss-making miners out of business
and reduce supply, helping prices to recover eventually.
Mark Bristow, chief executive of FTSE 100 miner Randgold
Resources, has said: "The [gold-mining] industry is clearly stuffed at
$US1,140 and it will be a bloodbath at $US1,000."
Hunter Hillcoat, from broker Investec's natural resources
team, has set a price forecast of $US1,150 an ounce for next year. The
Investec team sees a resurgence in the US dollar, rising interest rates
and falling inflation as challenges for the year ahead.
The price of gold has an inverse relationship with the
world's reserve currency, the US dollar. A fundamental shift in American
monetary policy last year has removed the main driving factor behind
the price of gold during the past decade.
As the price of gold has fallen from a peak of $US1,900 in
May 2011, investors have reduced their exposure. Holdings in gold
exchange-traded funds, which allow investors to buy shares in a fund
that tracks the gold price, have fallen in the past 12 months.
Trading Video: A Big Picture Technical Look at FX and Capital Markets for 2015 (based on dailyfx article)
Whether you are a short-term scalper or a more patient swing trader, taking a step back to look at the 'bigger picture' can help your trading. We have these past weeks looked at the bigger picture for fundamentals and general market conditions. So, to start off the New Year, we will look at the alluring big-picture technical patterns that have taken shape across the FX and capital markets. Incredible runs like that from USDollar, tentative massive breakouts from EURUSD and EURGBP, and the specter of reversal from the likes of USDJPY and EURJPY offer incredible potential for 2015. Combine the fundamental and market conditions views for the New Year with today's Trading Video technical overview to find your favorite setups.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video January 2015
newdigital, 2015.01.03 07:47
Jim Rogers 2015 Forecast Buy Gold , Bull Market will come
AUD/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2015 (based on fxempire article)
The AUD/USD starts out 2015 in a position to decline further after a
weak close in December. Last month, the Forex pair reaffirmed its
downtrend on the monthly chart with its sustained move under the
previous main bottom at .8659 and the major 50% level at .8545. Both of
these prices are resistance in January. Additional resistance angles
come in at .8544 and .8556. The best area to sell on a retracement is
the resistance cluster at .8544 and .8545.
The main range was formed by the July 2008 bottom at .6008 and the
July 2011 top at 1.1080. Its retracement zone at .8545 to .7945 is
currently being tested. Last month’s sharp decline through the upper or
50% level at .8545 means the selling pressure is real which makes the
Fibonacci level at .7945 the primary downside target in January. Trader
reaction to this price will set the tone for the month.
If the selling pressure is strong enough to take out .7945 with
conviction then look for the break to extend into the next uptrending
Gann angle at .7508.
Oversold conditions could produce periodic short-covering rallies,
but these rallies are likely to set up fresh shorting opportunities.
Bearish traders should continue to press the market unless .8544 is
taken out and this seems pretty remote given the fundamentals.
Fundamentally, the combination of a weak Australian economy and the
impending Fed interest rate hike sometime between April and June should
be the forces driving the AUD/USD lower in 2015. Low iron ore prices and
a weakening economy in China are two forces weighing on the Australian
economy. The interest rate differential is favoring the U.S. at this
time. This should be the key fundamental factor to focus on this year.
EUR/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2015 (based on fxempire article)
The new year begins with the interest rate differential strongly
favoring the U.S. Dollar over the Euro. Simply stated, the U.S. Federal
Reserve is getting ready to raise interest rates in 2015 while the
European Central Bank is gearing up for a fresh round of quantitative
easing (QE). Rates should rise in the U.S. and should fall in Europe,
increasing demand for the Greenback.
The key factor that will determine the ECB’s decision on quantitative
easing will be inflation. The central bank is trying desperately to
prevent deflation from creeping into the economy. Inflationary spikes
can be tolerated because the central banks have aggressive tools to
fight this. However, deflation is a difficult challenge because central
bank weapons are limited.
The ECB will start to get important inflationary data early in the
month which should cause a volatile reaction from traders in either
direction. The first key date to watch is January 7. On this date,
traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest CPI Flash
Estimate and Core CPI Flash Estimate. These reports should determine
what the ECB will do about QE at its monetary policy meeting on January
Oversold conditions could produce periodic short-covering rallies
throughout the month, but these rallies are likely to set up fresh
shorting opportunities. The monthly chart indicates that the
fundamentals are bearish and even if they did begin to change, it would
take several months to clear out the shorts and form a bottom.
The key number to watch early in the month is the July 2012 bottom at
1.2042. This is the first major downside target so traders may try to
take care of this price early in the month. If the selling pressure
persists then look for the downside momentum to continue down to the
June 2010 bottom at 1.1876.
The 1.2042 price level may be treated like a pivot throughout the
month. A sustained move above it may even trigger a rally back to
1.2341, but this is unlikely to occur unless the ECB backs away from
implementing QE this month.
The initial reaction to QE should be bearish for the Euro. The size
of the break will be determined by the size and length of the program.
Some optimistic investors feel the EUR/USD will decline during the first
quarter of 2015, but will strengthen throughout the year because the QE
will start to help stimulate the Euro Zone economy. Others feel that
the U.S. faces too much exposure to China and this could derail its
GBP/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2015 (based on fxempire article)
The GBP/USD opens up the new year in a weak position. 2015 begins
with the interest rate differential in favor of the U.S. Dollar. This is
180 degrees from last December when investors were making powerful bets
that the Bank of England would raise interest rates before the U.S.
The British Pound topped in July 2014 when it started to become clear
to traders that the BoE didn’t have the all clear signal from the
economy to begin hiking rates. Like many of the major economies, the
U.K. is battling to keep inflation above its benchmark 2 percent level.
This is the story that will concern investors throughout the new year.
Since the U.S. Fed appears to be on a path toward an interest rate
hike sometime between April and June, the first quarter and perhaps the
second quarter will have to be conceded to the U.S. Dollar. This means
the GBP/USD will continue to trade sideways to lower at least during the
first half of the year.
The year ended with the Forex pair trading on the bearish side of a
major retracement zone at 1.5720 to 1.6001. This levels are key
resistance in January.
December’s close at 1.5580 has created some interesting set ups for
the month. The first thing traders should note is that the close is on
the strong side of the angle that guided the market lower for 5 months.
This angle is at 1.5270. Crossing to the bearish side of this angle will
put the market in a weak position.
The nearest angle to watch is an uptrending angle at 1.5532. This
angle held as support last month so buyers do recognize it. Holding this
angle could lead to an early short-covering rally and a slight upside
The tone of the market will be determined by trader reaction to
1.5532. Holding this angle could create enough upside momentum to
trigger a short-covering rally into 1.5720.
A failure to hold 1.5532 will mean that sellers have a firm grip on
the market and are likely to try to press it into at least 1.5270 in
The new year starts with the U.S. Federal Reserve on a path toward
raising interest rates sometime between April and June. The Bank of
Japan is committed to keeping interest rates low in order to weaken the
Yen and attract fresh export business. On paper, there doesn’t appear to
be anything in the works that could derail the USD/JPY rally.
The strength of the U.S. Dollar over the Japanese Yen should continue
throughout 2015 simply because the interest rate differential favors
the Greenback. Overbought conditions could trigger profit-taking breaks,
but for the most part, the pressure should be to the upside.
Any surprises with the U.S. economy that could encourage the Fed to
back away from or delay an interest rate hike could also lead to
weakness. However, this is likely to show up in the U.S. economic
reports especially the labor market statistics and inflation data. As
long as the U.S. continues to add jobs each month, the Fed should remain
on a path toward an interest rate like by mid-year or even sooner.
A stock market sell-off could also encourage Japanese investors to
repatriate their money. This may also cause a minor glitch in the solid
uptrend, but at this time, the trend doesn’t appear to be in any danger
of changing. In addition, if the market gets “too” bullish or gets hit
with periods of excessive volatility, the BoJ may intervene to calm
things down, but the chances of this occurring are pretty remote at this
Technically, the USD/JPY closed the year in an uptrend and straddling
a major Fibonacci level at 120.11. Overtaking this level with
conviction and sustaining the move could lead to a test of the June 2007
top at 124.13 this month.
A failure to overtake 120.11 will indicate investor indecision which
could trigger a break back to the nearest uptrending support angle at
The tone of the market this month will be determined by trader
reaction to 120.11. The tone of the market for 2015 will be determined
by investor reaction to 119.825. Keep this price on your charts all
Gold forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
Gold markets did
very little during the course of the week, essentially bouncing around
just below the $1200 handle. Because of this, it appears of the market
is ready to go sideways in the near term, although there is still a bit
more of a negative bias at the moment. If we managed to get above the
$1250 level, at that point time we would be comfortable with longer-term
buying opportunities. Ultimately though, we feel that this market
really doesn’t have a lot of momentum one way or the other, so therefore
we are on the sidelines as far as long-term trades are concerned.