Press review - page 262

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support below the 120 level to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. The hammer of course is a positive sign, and as a result we feel that this market will continue the uptrend that we have seen for some time now. On top of that, the US Dollar Index of course went higher as well, so it does suggest that overall the US dollar will continue to be the favored currency in the Forex markets. With that, we are buyers of dips in this particular currency pair.

Ultimately, we believe that the US dollar will continue to be bought in favor of the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan continues to work against the value of its own currency by stepping into the bond markets and purchasing Japanese Government Bonds, essentially quantitative easing such as the Federal Reserve has done.

Look at the shape of the candle, it suggests that the markets review the 120 level as a bit of a “line in the sand”, but we believe that there is even more support down at the 115 handle than they are, so really at this point time this is a market that looks like it should continue to have buyers step into it again and again.

Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has stepped away from the bond markets, essentially ending the quantitative easing game. With that, the US dollar will continue to strengthen overall, and with the Bank of Japan doing the exact opposite it makes quite a bit of sense that this market would continue to go higher given enough time and as a result every time it dips I will that the buyers will step in as it makes sense to think of the US dollar as being “on sale” against the Japanese yen every time we fall. In fact, at this point in time we have no scenario in which we are willing to sell this market.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The USD/CAD pair fell initially during the week, but then shot higher in order to break out. We closed towards the top of the range, and it now appears that we are heading to the 1.18 handle in very short order. Pullbacks at this point time offer buying opportunities just as they always have, as the US dollar is without a doubt the favored currency around the world. We believe that there is essentially a “floor” in this market at the 1.12 level. We have no interest in selling at the moment.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but you can see that the area above the 0.78 level offered way too much in the way of resistance. With that, it appears of the market is ready to go lower, so we are sellers overall. However, we would have to break down below the 0.76 handle in order to find enough downward pressure in order to drop to the 0.75 handle, and then of course the 0.70 handle as the Royal Bank of New Zealand continues to jawbone the value of the Kiwi dollar down.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  
GBP/USD forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The GBP/USD pair broke down below the 1.55 level at the end of the week, essentially “opening the floodgates” to the 1.50 handle. With that, we have plenty of reasons to sell this market and absolutely no interest in buying it. At this point in time, the 1.55 level now looks as if it’s resistance, mainly because it was previously support. The market looks as if it’s ready to continue to grind lower because of that, so we are simply waiting for resistant candle in order to push the value of the British pound down.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Silver forecast for the week of January 5, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

Silver markets didn’t do much during the course of the week as we continue to hang about in a small range, but at this point time we recognize of the $15 level is massively supportive. Nonetheless, we see a massive amount of resistance at $17 as well, so at this point time it’s difficult to imagine placing any type of longer-term trade at this point in time. However, we recognize the longer-term charts might offer those signals, but we don’t have it yet so we believe that short-term trades will be about as good as it gets.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Forecast: new 4-year lows (based on fxstreet article)

The EUR/USD pair extended its latest decline in this first working day of 2015 to levels not seen since June 2010. Europe started the day with the wrong foot, as data shows Markit Manufacturing readings missed expectations in the EZ and most of it members, exception made by Germany, where PMI meet expectations of 51.2.

From a technical perspective, the bearish bias remains intact, as the 4 hours chart shows price declined further below its 20 SMA whilst RSI turned lower despite in oversold territory. The immediate bearish target comes at the 1.2000 figure, and it won’t be easy to break on a first attempt; but if it’s tested and the bounce from it remains limited, chances are of a break lower, with the selloff most likely extending down to 1.19.

The 1.2070 level comes as the immediate intraday resistance, with a recovery above it probably triggering an upward corrective movement towards the 1.2120 price zone.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD: January 2015 Forecast (based on dailyforex article)

The EUR/USD pair has been in a massive decline for some time now, but when I look at this chart I recognize that we may be reaching the end of the downtrend, at least for a while. After all, the 1.20 level below is a massive support barrier that we have seen come into play a couple of different times over the last five years. With that being the case, and the fact that we have sold off so viciously, I believe that we are reaching the end of the downtrend, at least for the short-term.

With a short-term, I mean possibly several months. Yes, I recognize that the Euro has a lot of issues and could continue to have those issues for some time. Ultimately though, there comes a point in time where there is almost nobody left to continue selling. With that, it’s very likely that the bounce that has been needed for some time is coming.

Is the trend changing?

When I look at the downtrend, I recognize that there is a significant amount of bearish pressure, but at the same time the rate of descent has slowed drastically. I believe that we are at a very important juncture, simply because the pair has been sold off so viciously and so overdone in that time. Ultimately, if there’s any hint whatsoever at the possibility of the Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy again, this pair will skyrocket to the upside.

Because of this, I feel that the market will more than likely look for reasons assert going higher, because quite frankly even in this environment, the 1.20 level is a bit on the cheap side as far as the Euro is concerned. If the European Central Bank suddenly looks less likely to loosen its monetary policy, that’s reason enough for this pair to go higher as well. In other words, I think now the upside risk is a lot higher than the downside risk. We have simply gone too far to the downside to justify selling at this point in time. I think that we will see a little bit of weakness in the beginning of the month, but eventually sometime during the month of January, we will see the buyers return.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Forex - Weekly outlook: January 5 - 9

The euro fell to four-and-a-half year lows against the dollar on Friday, and the greenback rose to parity against the Swiss franc after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that the likelihood of quantitative easing has increased.

In an interview with German financial newspaper Handelsblatt Draghi said the risk of the ECB not fulfilling its mandate of price stability is higher now than six months ago. The remarks indicated that the central bank is moving closer to implementing quantitative easing measures in order to spur growth and inflation.

The annual rate of euro zone inflation was just 0.3% in November, well below the ECB’s target of close to but just below 2%.

EUR/USD was down 0.85% to 1.2002 in late trade, the weakest level since early June 2010.

The single currency was also pressured lower after data showed that manufacturing activity in the euro area grew at a slower rate than initially estimated in December, adding to concerns over the outlook for fourth quarter growth.

The dollar rose to parity against the Swiss franc for the first time since December 2010, as weakness in the euro added to pressure on the Swiss National Bank to defend its 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor. USD/CHF was up 0.83% to 1.0014 in late trade.

The SNB eased monetary policy in December, when it imposed negative interest rates on commercial bank deposits.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, advanced 0.91% to nine-year peaks of 91.47. The index rallied 12% in 2014, boosted by the diverging policy outlook between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

Elsewhere, sterling fell to 17-month lows after data showed that U.K. manufacturing growth slowed in December.

GBP/USD was off 1.61% at 1.5326 late Friday after a report showed that the U.K. manufacturing index unexpectedly slid to a three-month low in December.

The dollar was also higher against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.62% to 120.49 in late trade.

USD/CAD hit five-and-a-half year highs, rallying 1.44% to 1.1784 late Friday as lower oil prices continued to pressure the commodity-exposed loonie lower.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be also closely watched, while the euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer prices.

Monday, January 5

  • In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while Spain is to report on the change in the number of people employed.
  • The U.K. is to release data on construction sector activity.

Tuesday, January 6

  • Australia is to produce data on the trade balance.
  • Elsewhere, China is to publish its HSBC service sector index.
  • The U.K. is to publish a report on service sector activity.
  • Later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on non-manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, January 7

  • Germany is to publish data on retail sales, as well as a report on the change in the number of people employed. The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the unemployment rate.
  • The SNB is to publish a report on foreign currency reserves.
  • The U.S. is to release a report on ADP nonfarm payrolls, in addition to data on the trade balance.
  • Canada is also to report on its trade balance and publish its Ivey PMI.
  • Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent meeting.

Thursday, January 8

  • Australia is to release data on building approvals.
  • The euro zone is to publish a report on retail sales.
  • The Bank of England is to announce its monetary policy decision.
  • The U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
  • New Zealand is to publish data on building consents.

Friday, January 9

  • Australia is to publish data on retail sales.
  • China is to release data on consumer price inflation.
  • The U.K. is to produce a report on industrial and manufacturing production, as well as data on the trade balance.
  • Canada is to report on building permits and the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, and data on wage growth.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD weekly outlook: January 5 - 9

The euro fell to four-and-a-half year lows against the dollar on Friday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled that it would implement quantitative easing measures early this year.

EUR/USD was down 0.85% to 1.2002 in late trade, the weakest level since early June 2010.

In an interview with German financial newspaper Handelsblatt Draghi said the risk of the ECB not fulfilling its mandate of price stability is higher now than six months ago. The remarks indicated that the central will expand its asset-purchase program to include government debt in order to spur growth and inflation.

The annual rate of euro zone inflation was just 0.3% in November, well below the ECB’s target of close to but just below 2%.

The single currency was also pressured lower after data showed that manufacturing activity in the euro area grew at a slower rate than initially estimated in December, adding to concerns over the outlook for fourth quarter growth.

The dollar rose to parity against the Swiss franc for the first time since December 2010, as weakness in the euro added to pressure on the Swiss National Bank to defend its 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor. USD/CHF was up 0.83% to 1.0014 in late trade.

Switzerland’s central bank imposed the exchange rate floor in September 2011 to head off the threat of deflation and protect the country's exporters from a rapidly rising currency.

The SNB eased monetary policy in December, when it imposed negative interest rates on commercial bank deposits, in a bid to prevent the continued appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.

EUR/CHF was almost unchanged at 1.2019 in late trade.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, advanced 0.91% to nine-year peaks of 91.47. The index rallied 12% in 2014, boosted by the diverging policy outlook between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be also closely watched, while the euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer inflation.

Monday, January 5

  • In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while Spain is to report on the change in the number of people employed.

Tuesday, January 6

  • In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on non-manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, January 7

  • Germany is to publish data on retail sales, as well as a report on the change in the number of people employed. The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the unemployment rate.
  • The U.S. is to release a report on ADP nonfarm payrolls, in addition to data on the trade balance. Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent meeting.

Thursday, January 8

  • The euro zone is to publish a report on retail sales.
  • The U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 9

  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, and data on wage growth.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

S&P 500 Index forecast for the week of January 5 2015, Technical Analysis (based on forextv article)