Gold rebound coming in 2015: George Gero during a CNBC interview for “Futures Now” (based on cnbc article)
According to George Gero of RBC Capital Markets, gold is set to
reverse its trend in 2015. During a CNBC interview for “Futures Now” he
observed: “The decline from the $1,900s down to the $1,150s is a major
decline, and it was reflected by all the funds fleeing gold and running
into better-performing assets, whether it’s equities or debt, and that’s
been continuing. In 2014, gold hasn’t been helped by the dollar’s
rally. The greenback has shown serious strength against other
currencies, which has reduced gold’s attractiveness. After all, since
gold is priced in dollars, an increase in the value of a dollar means a
decrease in the value of an ounce of gold. Additionally, since people
buy gold to hedge against potential inflation, ebbing inflation fears
dull gold’s appeal.”
Gold: The Year Ahead (based on goldseek artricle)
Trading Video: Short Term Euro and Yen Setups the Order for Next Week (based on dailyfx article)
There are more than a few great technical and fundamental setups tempting FX traders. Yet, many of these high-profile opportunities
call for dramatic breaks, reversals or trend upgrades which requires
deep market liquidity. Similar to this past week's Christmas drain, the
New Year's holiday in the week ahead will create another whirlpool. As
the big setups gestate, we should turn our focus to the many short-term
setups that have formed in the market. Many of the majors and crosses
present the proper technical patterns to trigger breakouts, but certain
pairs offer different circumstances. With a Greek Parliament election on
Monday; EURUSD, EURGBP and EURJPY, are fundamentally loaded. Conversely, pairs like GBPJPY, GBPNZD and GBPAUD are naturally more volatile. We discuss next week's trading landscape in the weekend Trading Video.
Gold Prices Likely To Start 2015 Weak, But Rise Into Year End (based on kitco article)
Gold prices could be under some pressure in the first half of 2015
as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve raising interest rates,
but once the Fed moves, the yellow metal may be able to end the year on
Market watchers said once the Fed starts the
cycle of interest rate increases, the market can focus on how high the
rates may rise, which will be less of a weight since the expectation is
that rates won’t rise very much. Higher interest rates are bearish for
gold because they give investors a reason to move money into
investment vehicles that produce a yield. Gold has no yield.
“Looming Federal Reserve interest rate increases in the second half
of 2015 and the stronger U.S. dollar will keep pressure on gold prices
through the year. The gold market could see rallies if demand improves
for physical gold, but weaker growth in much of the world will temper
such prospects,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist, U.S.
Bank Wealth Management.
Erica Rannestad, senior analyst, precious
metals demand, Thomson Reuters GFMS, agreed that gold prices will
likely be lower in the first half of the year because of the Fed’s
expected action, which she called “the top driver” for gold-price
She said gold prices will likely consolidate
next year, and lists and a 2015 average price $1,175, with prices
trending higher in the second half of the year.
JP Morgan lowers gold, silver forecasts on slack buying interest (based on bulliondesk article)
JP Morgan has lowered its 2015 and 2016 average gold and silver price forecasts on reduced demand from investors and consumers.
The broker reduced its 2014 gold forecast by two percent to $1,275
per ounce because these key supportive factors have been underperforming
throughout the year.
“While seasonal, physical buying emerged in Asian markets in
September after a drop in price, many headwinds strengthened at the same
time,” it said.
“The Asian gold consumer – a major supportive factor last year –
proved to be very price sensitive and has been unwilling to step into
the market at prices above $1,260,” it added. “Gold investors, in both
Western and Asian countries, have also been largely absent from the
market for the majority of this year.”
The bank also revised its forecast for 2015 four percent lower to
$1,220 per ounce, citing lower inflation, reduced inflation
expectations, higher US interest rates and a stronger US dollar.
The spot gold price was last at $1,146.50/1,147.30 per ounce, up
$3.30 on Wednesday’s close, with the dollar at a near-two-year high
against the euro at 1.2422.
The bank also downgraded its silver price forecasts for both 2014 and
2015 – it now sees silver averaging $19.56 per ounce this year, down
five percent on the previous forecast of $20.52. It also forecast silver
to average $18.25 in 2015, down 12 percent on its previous prediction
Silver bottomed out at $15.39/15.43 per ounce earlier, just above the
low of $15.15 it hit yesterday, which was the lowest since February
Risk Of Russian Gold Selling? (based on binaryoptionevolution article)
"The situation in Russia raises concerns within the precious
metals market that the central bank might sell its holdings of gold and
palladium. The amount of palladium holdings is unknown, but for
gold, the Central Bank of Russia is currently the sixth largest holder
of the metal at 1,168.7 tonnes, after having built up its gold reserves
over the last several years. The CBR's gold holdings make up about 10.2%
of total reserves.
reserves are worth about $45bn around current price levels. To put this
into context, the CBR's currency intervention year-to-date has been more
than $80bn. Even if the entire gold position was liquidated, it would clearly not be enough to defend the rouble
Although the possibility cannot be ruled out with certainty, we
think the risk that Russia will sell its precious metals holdings is
Gold Near Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Trading Week (adapted from Forbes article)
Gold prices are trading not far from unchanged in
quieter dealings early U.S. trading Monday. The Christmas holiday on
Thursday is making for thin volumes as many players are already off for
the week. February Comex gold was last up $0.20 at $1,195.80 an ounce.
Spot gold was last up $1.30 at $1,196.00. March Comex silver last traded
down $0.01 at $16.02 an ounce.
Trading activity could briefly pick up Tuesday. The main U.S.
economic report on tap this week will be the third-quarter gross
domestic product report on Tuesday. GDP is expected to be up 4.3%,
year-on-year, versus the previous reading of up 3.9%. Tuesday could be
the busiest trading day of the week as there are also several other key
U.S. economic reports due out. Look for trading activity to then quickly
fade ahead of the Christmas holiday Thursday, and to remain light until
the new year begins.
European and Asian markets were also quieter overnight. The feature
in Europe was the Italian 10-year bond yield fell to a record low of
1.68%, reports said. Ironically, EU country bond yields are falling when
anxiety about the health of the European Union is rising. A main reason
for this paradox is that there are also heavy odds in favor of the
European Central Bank initiating quantitative easing of its monetary
policy next year. That prospect is leading investors to put their likely
deflating Euros into even shaky EU governments’ debt.
The Russian ruble is stable Monday, following last week’s turmoil.
Last week the ruble fell to 80 versus the U.S. dollar and was trading at
57 to the greenback on Monday.
Crude oil prices are also stable Monday following the big plunge in
recent months that saw prices last week hit a five-year low. Saudi
Arabia’s oil minister said in reports Monday that crude oil prices may
never reach the $100 mark again.
Oil, the Dollar, Supply $ Demand, Market Timing and the importance of Risk Managment (based on fxstreet article)
An Integral Part of the XLT program, Brandon Tristan joins Merlin
for a look back at 2014. The dou talk about Oil, the Dollar, Supply $
Demand, Market Timing and the importance of Risk Managment. They also
discuss the Aussie Japanese Yen Currency Pair per a listener request.
Brandon also offers some insights into what he will be doing different
Gold Lower as Markets Digest Greek Vote (based on foxbusiness article)
Gold edged lower on Monday, giving up some of the previous session's
sharp short-covering gains, but uncertainty over the prospect of fresh
elections in Greece kept the metal underpinned near $1,200 an ounce.
European shares and periphery euro zone bonds tumbled after the Greek
parliament rejected the government's presidential candidate, setting
the stage for an election that the anti bailout Syriza could win.
Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,192.50 an ounce by 1415 GMT,
after a gain of 1.8 percent on Friday, when it had touched $1,199, its
highest since Dec. 22 and its biggest one-day jump in 2-1/2 weeks.
Bullion's rise came in thin market conditions due to the Christmas
and year-end holidays and it was unclear whether the last session's
gains would be maintained when trading picked up again.
"Friday's sharp move was a typical non liquidity move, so naturally
enough it gives back a bit today," Saxo Bank's head of commodity
research Ole Hansen said. "We are less than 1 percent away from where we
finished a year ago, and I do not think we will sway much away from
"(The news from Athens) raises the risk of Grexit (Greek euro exit)
once again - not the best climate for Europe to begin the new year," he
added. "That could provide some support, although we need traders
willing to put on risk and they are currently missing."
U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down $2.20 an ounce at $1,193.10.
Bearish sentiment in the bullion market was evident in SPDR Gold
Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. The fund's
holdings fell 0.08 percent to 712.30 tonnes on Friday, a six-year low.
Demand for the metal was soft overnight in Asia, the primary market for physical gold dealing.
"The premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was rather uninspiring,
trading between par and $1 above spot for most of the day," MKS said in a
Gold and Silver Prices in 2015 (based on moneymorning article)
Precious metals haven't grabbed dramatic headlines like oil and gas have.
But their story is no less exiting. And the metals remain a
fundamentally critical part of the global economic and strategic
Indeed, gold and silver took roller coaster-like rides throughout the
year, both screeching towards their respective price lows before
bouncing, albeit cautiously, ahead.
With the benefit of hindsight and the value of foresight, it's time
to look at how gold and silver acted in 2014, and what we can do to
profit in 2015.
As you follow along with the graph, note that gold started out with a
bang, bottoming around $1,195 December 19, 2013, then surging upward
12% to $1,390 by mid-March. It then headed back to the $1,300 level, and
meandered sideways between $1,250 and $1,350 until mid-year.
The U.S. dollar
began a strong climb from July onwards, likely in anticipation of the
Fed ending its asset purchase program in October, as it ultimately did.
By November the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the largest gold ETF, saw its gold holdings at six-year lows. Gold had become almost universally hated, which may well have marked the bottom.
And then it embarked on a new rise…
One of the biggest positives is how gold held up over the recent months: as oil prices plunged 27% from early November into mid-December, gold climbed by 7%.