Press review - page 106

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-03-11 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

U.K. Industrial Output Growth Slows More Than Forecast

U.K. industrial production growth slowed more than expected in January, while manufacturing output growth remained stable compared to December, official data showed Tuesday.

Industrial output edged up 0.1 percent from December, the Office for National Statistics reported. Output was forecast to expand 0.2 percent, following December's 0.5 percent rise.

Manufacturing output grew 0.4 percent as seen in December and stayed above the 0.3 percent rise forecast by economists.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-03-11 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-03-12 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Home Loans]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Home Loans Flat In January

The total number of home loans in Australia was roughly unchanged on month in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, standing at 51,054.

That was shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent following the downwardly revised 3.3 percent contraction in December (originally down 1.9 percent).

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Global Stock Markets Resume Selloff (based on forexminute article)

The shaky risk sentiment in the markets forced US equities to decline in recent trading, a sign that global stock markets might be ready to resume their selloff sooner or later. The conflict in Ukraine is still present while authorities are still investigating the missing Malaysia Airlines plane's disappearance, lending more uncertainty in the forex market.

In the New York trading session, the S&P 500 ended the day lower by 9.55 points and marked a 0.51% loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) chalked up a 0.41% loss of 67.3 points while the Nasdaq Composite index marked a 0.63% decline for the trading day.

The lack of major reports from the US economy was one factor in the equities selloff. Apart from the non-farm payrolls release last Friday, there have been no top-tier catalysts for the US dollar and US stock market for the past few trading days, leaving equities to trade mostly on market sentiment.

Global Stock Markets Outlook

With that, today's trading sessions might mark another losing day for global stock markets as risk appetite is starting to wane. Downbeat comments from BOE officials, who pointed out that the tightening cycle isn't bound to start anytime soon and that further GBP rallies might hurt the economy, led to weakness for most European stocks.

Equity analysts are also calling the shots on a longer-term reversal for stock market gains. After all, the stock market has been very volatile recently, chalking up significant gains on any improvement in risk sentiment while marking consecutive losses when the upbeat effects fade.

Another reason is the ongoing slowdown in the economy. While the recent NFP showed a pick up in employment change, underlying labor components still point at prevailing weaknesses. For one, the participation rate hasn't been improving much as it held steady at 63% based on the past jobs report. Unless recent global conflicts reach a resolution soon, traders don't foresee strong and sustained gains for stock markets worldwide.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trendless Markets: 3 Common Mistakes and How to Correct Them (based on dailyfx article)

Inconsistent trading due to range bound markets could be a result of several factors. Here are 3 common mistakes made:

  • Trend following strategy used in a trendless market
  • Stop loss is too close
  • Emotionally impatient with trades

Error #1 - Using the wrong type of strategy
Correction – Match the strategy to the current market condition

One of the most overlooked elements in creating a trading plan is matching your strategy to the current market environment. Once we find a strategy that ‘works’, we tend to stick with that strategy. There is nothing wrong with that. However, we need to realize and remember that our strategy is NOT designed to well all of the time. There are times our strategy will be out of favor with the market conditions. It is recognizing those situations and taking appropriate action which we typically miss.

Error #2 – Stop Loss is too close
Correction – Give your trade room to breathe for the life of the trade

Another common mistake that traders make is assuming their risk is relegated to the distance of their stop loss to their entry. The truth is the risk to your account is how much currency you stand to lose if the trade does not work out!

Error #3 – Getting impatient and closing trades before the stop or target is reached
Correction – Remember that trendless markets generally take longer to reach support or resistance levels

Frustration for lack of movement is a big reason traders get impatient. We live in a culture of fast food and 15 minute oil changes. We want it and we want it now! The same applies in trading.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Forex rigging claims could prove to be bigger scandal than Libor, says Carney



Bank of England chief defends governance structure and speed with which Bank reacted to claims during questioning by MPs

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Stocks in 'euphoria mode': Citi strategist

The stock market entered "euphoria mode" late last year and has remained there, except for a week in February, as "speculative froth" bubbles around the market's hottest sectors, Citi's chief equity strategist told CNBC on Tuesday.

Tobias Levkovich said he remains generally bullish on 2014, which he thinks has a 90 percent chance of ending positive.

But he sees worrisome signs in Citi's "Panic-Euphoria" model, which crossed into "euphoria mode" in November and December. He said that indicates a high probability of markets swinging downward.

"You worry about social media. You worry about biotech. You worry about some of these fuel-cells stocks where there is some speculative froth going on," Levkovich said on "Squawk on the Street."

Squawk on the Street: Major Market News from the New York Stock Exchange - CNBC
Squawk on the Street: Major Market News from the New York Stock Exchange - CNBC
  • www.cnbc.com
Squawk on the Street" is the only show headquartered live on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. We are there when the all-important opening bell rings every day. With our exclusive "Eye on the Floor" wireless cameras at the NYSE we take the viewer onto the floor of the exchange, right to the posts where the biggest companies in the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand to Raise Rates for First Time Since 2010
  • Markets Pricing 98% Chance for 25bp Rate Hike According to OIS

According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 15 economists polled see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising the benchmark interest rate by 25bp in March, and the central bank may look to normalize monetary policy throughout 2014 as the pickup in economic activity raises the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 03/12/2014 20:00 GMT, 16:00 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: NZD/USD
Expected: 2.75%
Previous: 2.50%
Forecast: 2.75%

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler may sound a more hawkish this time around amid the ongoing threat of an asset-bubble, and interest rate decision may spur fresh highs in the New Zealand dollar should the central bank show a greater willingness to implement a series of rate hike over the coming months.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish NZD Trade: RBNZ Raises Rates & Pledges to Normalize Further in 2014

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a hawkish statement to consider a long NZDUSD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long trade, buy NZDUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
Bearish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Disappoints & Preserves Current Policy
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZD/USD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in opposite direction 

January 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision :


Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

  • Stuck in Wedge/Triangle Formation From 2011; Bullish Breakout on Tap?
  • Relative Strength Index Preserves Bearish Trend Dating Back to November
  • Interim resistance: 0.8540-50 (50.0% expansion)
  • Interim support: 0.8220 (38.2% retracement) to 0.8230 (38.2% retracement)
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-03-13 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Unemployment Rate Steady At 6.0%

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.0 percent in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the January reading.

The Australian economy gained 47,300 jobs in February to 11,530,800 - blowing away expectations for a gain of 15,000 following the loss of 3,700 jobs in the previous month.

Full-time employment increased by 80,500 to 8,049,900 and part-time employment decreased by 33,300 to 3,480,900.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: U.S. Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Retail Sales to Increase for First Time in Three-Months
  • Household Spending Rose 10 Months in 2013

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 03/13/2014 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.2%
Previous: -0.4%
Forecast: -0.2% to 0.4%

Why Is This Event Important:

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely expected to discuss another $10B taper at the March 19 meeting, a pickup in private sector consumption may put increased pressure on the central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but we may see Fed Chair Janet Yellen preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of time in an effort to curtail the ongoing slack in the real economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Household Spending Increases 0.2% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Retail Sales Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Remains Upward Trending Channel While Preserving March Opening Range (1.3914)
  • Bullish RSI Momentum Continues to Favor Further Advances
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0% expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3460 (50.0% expansion)

January 2014 U.S. Retail Sales :