Press review - page 104

[Sergey Golubev]

AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

• Upbeat Jobs Data May Reinforce Positive Shift in the RBA Policy Outlook
• Fading Doubts About Fed “Taper” Continuity May Undermine the Aussie

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

• Gold Rally Vulnerable Sub $1361- March Opening Range, NFPs in Focus
• Crude Oil and Gold Bounce With NFP Data To Offer Further Guidance

[Sergey Golubev]

GBPUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bullish

• Cable in Consolidation Mode
• British Pound Bypasses BoE, Moves on to Inflation Forecast Update

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Fundamentals - Weekly Outlook Mar. 10-14 

The US dollar and the Japanese yen were sold off as the market mood improved. Will we see more falls? Rate decisions in Japan and New Zealand, US employment and retail figures as well as PPI and Consumer confidence are the major events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.

1. Japanese rate decision: Tuesday. Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in February, stating that the economy was moving in line with the central bank’s projections, indicating monetary stimulus will not get bigger. However in case of downside risks, the BOJ will act and adjust its policy. The GDP release showed external demand has weakened in emerging market economies affecting growth, but domestic demand has remained strong. The bank also forecasts that the current account balance will also improve once exports strengthen alongside global recovery.
2. US Federal Budget Balance: Wednesday, 18:00. The U.S. government’s deficit continued to decline in January reaching $10.4 billion. The ongoing reduction totaled 36.6% in the first four months from a year ago, signaling further improvement in the nation’s economic condition. The Congressional Budget Office expect deficit to reach $514 billion in the current budget year while last year deficit reached $680.2 billion. The US Senate passed legislation to suspend the debt ceiling until March 16, 2015 eliminating more risk for budget wars. U.S. government’s deficit is expected to reach $223.2 billion.
3. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. New Zealand’s central bank kept rates unchanged in February but gave a strong hint for a rate hike this month. While inflation has been moderate, inflationary pressures are predicted to rise over the next two years. The RBNZ’s decision followed strong data indicating the economy is growing faster than the central bank had projected, while inflation got closer to the RBNZ’s 2% target. A rate hike to 2.75% is expected this time.
4. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment rate worsened in January increasing to 6.0% its highest level in a decade. The Australian economy shed 3,700 jobs due to a turbulent transition away from mining and the jobless rate increased from 5.8% in December, mainly full time positions. Australia is facing an economic transition following the termination of the mining boom, reflected by a big drop in mining related investment. Other sectors in the economy will have to fill in the gap and start contributing to growth. Australia’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6% while the Australian economy is predicted to add 15,300 new jobs.
5. US retail sales: Thursday, 12:30. US retail sales edged down in January, amid cold weather Americans spent less on automobiles and clothes following the rise in the end of 2013. Retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% after a 0.1 percent drop in December. However, economic slowdowns caused by winter weather are usually transformed to stronger growth once temperatures rise again. Nevertheless economic growth in the first quarter is expected to be well below 2% annual rate compared to the 3.2% rate in the final quarter of 2013. Meanwhile Core retail sales excluding volatile spending on autos, gas and building supplies, remained flat compared with December with a drop in purchases of clothing and furniture because of rising prices. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.3%, while core sales are forecasted to rise 0.2%.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans queuing for unemployment benefits fell to a three-month low last week, indicating the US labor market has recuperated from the severe weather. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, better than the 326,000 projected by analysts. The continuing claims have stayed at higher levels in recent weeks, due to the cold weather preventing some recipients from going out to search for work and causing companies to delay hiring. A rise to 334,000 is expected this time.
7. US PPI: Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices increased in January, but did not reflect broader price pressures in the economy. The producer price index for finished goods edged up 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.4% increase in December. PPI was revised and now includes the wholesale cost of goods and adds services, construction, government purchases and exports for the first time. It now includes a new index that tracks prices of goods and services meant to be sold to consumers. The index, known as personal consumption, rose 0.3%. It’s expected to give a heads up if consumer inflation is about to begin a sharp move up or down. The rise in prices does not indicate any major shift in inflation. Meantime, PPI, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, edged up 0.2%. Producer prices are expected to gain 0.2%.
8. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. Consumer confidence in the US remained unchanged at 81.2 points in February, indicating shoppers remained dormant last month. However economists expected the index to decline to 80.6. However, the figure indicated a worsening mood after December’ release showed a three-year high on a monthly basis. Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 81.9.

[Sergey Golubev]

Moody's raised the credit rating outlook for the Netherlands and Belgium to stable from negative, on Friday.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-03-08 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 31.9B
• forecast data is 14.5B
• actual data is -23.0B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

==========

China February Exports Plunge; Import Growth Accelerates

Chinese exports declined unexpectedly, while growth in imports accelerated in February, taking the trade balance surprisingly to a negative zone.

Exports declined sharply by 18.1 percent, reversing the 10.6 percent increase in January, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Saturday. The decline was in contrast to a 7.5 percent rise forecast by economists.

On the other hand, imports grew 10.1 percent, when growth was forecast to slow to 7.6 percent from 10 percent.

Consequently, the trade balance showed a deficit of $22.98 billion compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion seen in January. Economists were expecting a surplus of $14.5 billion.

The trade figures for January and February are usually distorted by long Lunar New Year holiday.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Fundamentals - Weekly outlook: March 10 - 14

The dollar rose to six-week highs against the yen on Friday and pulled back from two-and-a-half year lows against the euro after data showed that the U.S. jobs report for February came in ahead of expectations.

Monday, March 10

• Japan is to release data on the current account, as well as revised data on fourth quarter economic growth.
• In the euro zone, France is to produce data on industrial production.
• Switzerland is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, March 11

• Australia is to produce private sector data on business confidence.
• The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
• In the euro zone, Germany is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• The U.K. is to publish data on manufacturing production. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and several monetary policy committee members are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

Wednesday, March 12

• Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on home loans.
• Japan is to publish its BSI manufacturing index and a report on tertiary industry activity.
• The U.K. is to produce data on the trade balance.
• The euro zone is to release data on industrial production.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Thursday, March 13

• Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders. Elsewhere, China is to produce data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.
• Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation expectations.
• RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is to testify before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee, in Wellington.
• The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which looks at current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices, in addition to the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 14

• The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.
• Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 10 - 14

The dollar rose to its highest level against the yen in six-weeks on Friday after the U.S. employment report for February came in ahead of expectations.

Monday, March 10

• Japan is to release data on the current account, as well as revised data on fourth quarter economic growth.

Tuesday, March 11

• The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Wednesday, March 12

• Japan is to publish its BSI manufacturing index and a report on tertiary industry activity.

Thursday, March 13

• Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders.
• The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices, in addition to the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 14

• The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CHF Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 10 - 14

The dollar trimmed back losses against the Swiss franc on Friday after data showed that U.S. jobs growth exceeded forecasts in February, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to unwind its economic stimulus program.

Monday, March 10

• Switzerland is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Thursday, March 13

• The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices, in addition to the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 14

• Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 10 - 14

The U.S. dollar jumped higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday after the U.S. jobs report for February came in ahead of expectations while Canada’s jobs report was unexpectedly weak.

Monday, March 10

• Canada is to release data on building starts.

Thursday, March 13

• Canada is to release data on new house price inflation.
• The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices, in addition to the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 14

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.