newdigital, 2013.06.25 13:34
We are going to have the following 2 high impacted news events:
2013-06-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]
I will tell later about Durable Goods Orders but now - we will discuss Consumer Confidence which will be at 14:00 GMT or at 16:00 MQ server time. This is the usual formula to trade/watch this news event: actual > forecast = good for currency (currency is USD in our case). Past data is 76.2 (according to official press release here), forecasting is 75.6, and actual data will be at 14:00 GMT. Just to remind that this is high impacted news event.
U.S. Consumer Confidence – Current & Historical Data
Upcoming Release Commentary:
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
jumped 7.2 points in May to its highest level in more than five years.
April figure was also revised upward to 69.0. The assessment of current
economic conditions went up nearly 6 points from April to 66.7. The
assessment of expectations gained 8.1 points to 82.4 in May.
For the current month, analysts expect a small
pullback in consumer confidence to 75.6. The decline may be partly
attributed to the recent equity market volatility and rise in mortgage
interest rates. But despite expectations for a pullback, consumer
optimism is likely to record modest gains as we go through the year.
Market Impact Scenarios:
The Consumer Confidence Index released by the Conference Board is a
leading indicator of consumer spending. Since consumption and spending
account for a majority of the overall U.S. economic activity, a high
degree of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion, while a low
level is typically associated with decreased consumer demand, which
leads to an economic downturn. Importantly, some analysts criticize the
Consumer Confidence figure for its volatility, and only consider index
changes of at least five points to be significant.
About USD - Consumer Confidence which we had 6 minutes ago - it was high impacted news event, and I opened sell stop/buy stop orders for USDJPY, USDCHF and EURUSD 2 minutes before actual data release. So, we can see the results :
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.25
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
And this is the results :
Just to remind :
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.03.20 10:40
Market Condition Evaluation
story/thread was started from here/different thread
more to follow ...
We are going to have the following news event at 14:30 MQ server MT5 time :
2013-06-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]
We are using same formula for trading/estimate the direction : if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case). Past data is 2.4% (according to the latest release); forecast data is 2.4%
Speeches ... we did not speak about speeches.
Example: ECB Draghi Speaks at 07:48 GMT (or 09:48 MQ terminal time) - see press release here : Mario Draghi:
Introductory remarks at the French Assemblée Nationale, Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Paris, 26 June 2013
And you can see about the price ... 3 pips only :)
EURUSD, M1, 2013.06.26
Next example - BOE Speaks (BoE is Bank of England - just for information). It was at 09:30 GMT (or at 11:30 MQ metatrader time). And you can see :
GBPUSD, M1, 2013.06.26
gbpusd 15 pips
USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.26
usdchf 12 pips
The results with recent USD GBP :
Totally : +125 pips
newdigital, 2013.06.26 10:43
Actual data is 1.8% (forecast is 2.4%).
EURUSD, M5, 2013.06.26
USDCHF, M5, 2013.06.26
usdchf 25 pips
GBPUSD, M5, 2013.06.26
gbpusd 33 pips
USDJPY, M5, 2013.06.26
usdjpy 37 pips
Some people may ask - why I too care about fundamental news events? Because the price ... price is moved a lot on some cases.
I traded news events for the many years and I can tell you that it is really difficult to do. It is not "just to place buy stop and sell stop orders". we need to read press releases, other informational websites and so on. And we need to understand - which news event is low impacted, and which one can be high impacted and when and why.
Most of news events are monthly ones (ones per month). There are some news events which are released in weekly way. And some of them are reported once per 3 months. So, I will continue with news events evaluation and after that - we will trade it - I will explain about how to trade and we will do it together for example. So, this is a plan.
That's all news.
NZD - Trade Balance - with first try and second try : +12 pips in profit totally:
NZDUSD, M1, 2013.06.27
newdigital, 2013.06.27 08:11
We had the following news event at night:
2013-06-26 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]
This is high or medium impacted news event. We are using same formula for trading or to estimate possible direction of the trend : actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case):
New Zealand May Trade Surplus NZ$71 Million
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$71 million in
May, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday, worth 1.7 percent of
exports. The headline figure was well shy of forecasts for a
surplus of NZ$427 billion following the upwardly revised surplus of
NZ$174 million in April (originally NZ$157 million).