Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 51

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.06.25 13:34

We are going to have the following 2 high impacted news events:

2013-06-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

I will tell later about Durable Goods Orders but now - we will discuss Consumer Confidence which will be at 14:00 GMT or at 16:00 MQ server time. This is the usual formula to trade/watch this news event: actual > forecast = good for currency (currency is USD in our case). Past data is 76.2 (according to official press release here), forecasting is 75.6, and actual data will be at 14:00 GMT. Just to remind that this is high impacted news event.

============

U.S. Consumer Confidence – Current & Historical Data


Upcoming Release Commentary:

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped 7.2 points in May to its highest level in more than five years. April figure was also revised upward to 69.0. The assessment of current economic conditions went up nearly 6 points from April to 66.7. The assessment of expectations gained 8.1 points to 82.4 in May.

For the current month, analysts expect a small pullback in consumer confidence to 75.6. The decline may be partly attributed to the recent equity market volatility and rise in mortgage interest rates. But despite expectations for a pullback, consumer optimism is likely to record modest gains as we go through the year.


Market Impact Scenarios:

The Consumer Confidence Index released by the Conference Board is a leading indicator of consumer spending. Since consumption and spending account for a majority of the overall U.S. economic activity, a high degree of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion, while a low level is typically associated with decreased consumer demand, which leads to an economic downturn. Importantly, some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatility, and only consider index changes of at least five points to be significant.


About USD - Consumer Confidence which we had 6 minutes ago - it was high impacted news event, and I opened sell stop/buy stop orders for USDJPY, USDCHF and EURUSD 2 minutes before actual data release. So, we can see the results :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.25

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

confidence

USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.25, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

And this is the results :


Files:
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Just to remind :

Forum

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.03.20 10:40

Market Condition Evaluation

story/thread was started from here/different thread

================================

Market condition

  • the theory with examples (primary trend, secondary trend) - read staring from this post till this one
  • Summary about market condition theory is on this post 

================================ 

3 Stoch MaFibo trading system for M5 and M1 timeframe 

================================  

PriceChannel ColorPar Ichi system.

 

================================ 

MaksiGen trading system 

================================ 

 Merrill's patterns are on this page.

 

================================

Divergence - how to use, explanation and where to read about.

  

================================

Scalp_net trading system

  • template/indicators and how to use are on this comment.

  • scalp_net_v132_tf EA is on this post with optimization results/settings for EURUSD M5 timeframe
     
  • possible settings #1 for this EA for EURUSD M5 timeframe with backtesting results is on this post.
     

================================  

MTF systems 

more to follow ... 


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

We are going to have the following news event at 14:30 MQ server MT5 time :

2013-06-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

We are using same formula for trading/estimate the direction : if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case). Past data is 2.4% (according to the latest release); forecast data is 2.4%

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Speeches ... we did not speak about speeches.

Example: ECB Draghi Speaks at 07:48 GMT (or 09:48 MQ terminal time) - see press release here : Mario Draghi:  Introductory remarks at the French Assemblée Nationale, Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Paris, 26 June 2013

And you can see about the price ... 3 pips only :)

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M1, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

3 pips

EURUSD, M1, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


ECB: President
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
Mario Draghi:  Interview with Der Spiegel,  de .  en Interview with Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 30 December 2013 Mario Draghi:  Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament,  en Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Brussels, 16 December 2013 Mario...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Next example - BOE Speaks (BoE is Bank of England - just for information). It was at 09:30 GMT (or at 11:30 MQ metatrader time). And you can see :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M1, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

gbpusd 15 pips

GBPUSD, M1, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

usdchf 12 pips

USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M1, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd m15

EURUSD, M1, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  
So, do not ignore speeches in trading. may be ... one day - we will speak about speeches :)
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

The results with recent USD GBP :

  • GBPUSD +33 pips
  • EURUSD +30 pips
  • USDCHF +25 pips
  • USDJPY +37 pips

Totally : +125 pips

===============

Forum

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.06.26 10:43

We are going to have the following news event at 14:30 MQ server MT5 time :

2013-06-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

We are using same formula for trading/estimate the direction : if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case). Past data is 2.4% (according to the latest release); forecast data is 2.4%

Actual data is 1.8% (forecast is 2.4%).

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd gdp

EURUSD, M5, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCHF, M5, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

usdchf 25 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

gbpusd 33 pips

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDJPY, M5, 2013.06.26

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

usdjpy 37 pips

USDJPY, M5, 2013.06.26, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Some people may ask - why I too care about fundamental news events? Because the price ... price is moved a lot on some cases.

I traded news events for the many years and I can tell you that it is really difficult to do. It is not "just to place buy stop and sell stop orders". we need to read press releases, other informational websites and so on. And we need to understand - which news event is low impacted, and which one can be high impacted and when and why.

Most of news events are monthly ones (ones per month). There are some news events which are released in weekly way. And some of them are reported once per 3 months. So, I will continue with news events evaluation and after that - we will trade it - I will explain about how to trade and we will do it together for example. So, this is a plan.

That's all news.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

NZD - Trade Balance - with first try and second try : +12 pips in profit totally:

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

NZDUSD, M1, 2013.06.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

12 pips

NZDUSD, M1, 2013.06.27, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.06.27 08:11

We had the following news event at night:

2013-06-26 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

This is high or medium impacted news event. We are using same formula for trading or to estimate possible direction of the trend : actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case):

===============

New Zealand May Trade Surplus NZ$71 Million

New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$71 million in May, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday, worth 1.7 percent of exports. The headline figure was well shy of forecasts for a surplus of NZ$427 billion following the upwardly revised surplus of NZ$174 million in April (originally NZ$157 million).