GBP CPI : movement by +56 pips
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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.16
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
gbpusd cpi 56 pips
newdigital, 2013.07.16 11:21
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
U.K. Inflation Accelerates In June :
U.K. inflation rose to 2.9 percent in June on higher motor fuel and
clothing and footwear charges, data from the Office for National
Statistics showed Tuesday. It was the fastest since April 2012.
the rate exceeded the 2.7 percent seen in May, it stayed marginally
below the expected rate of 3 percent. Month-on-month, consumer prices
fell 0.2 percent, offsetting the 0.2 percent increase in the prior
CPIH, the new measure of consumer price inflation including
owner occupiers' housing costs, grew 2.7 percent in June, up from 2.5
percent in May.
Consumer prices excluding energy, food, alcoholic
beverages and tobacco, rose 2.3 percent, in line with forecast, but
slightly faster than the 2.2 percent increase registered in May.
price inflation also increased in June, to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent
in the previous month. On a monthly basis, it was down 0.2 percent.
EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.16
eurusd 19 pips
newdigital, 2013.07.16 20:13
2013-07-16 14:00 GMT | [USD - NAHB Housing Market Index]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Seven-Year High :
Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly improved in the
month of July, according to a report released by the National
Association of Home Builders on Tuesday, with the reading on homebuilder
confidence reaching its highest level in well over seven years.
The report showed that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 57 in July from a downwardly revised 51 in June.
Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 52 originally reported for the previous month.
With the unexpected increase, the housing market index rose to its highest level since a matching reading in January of 2006.
Chief Economist David Crowe said, "Builders are seeing more motivated
buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for
sale continues to tighten."
"Meanwhile, as the infrastructure
that supplies home building returns, some previously skyrocketing
building material costs have begun to soften," he added.
unexpected increase by the housing market index reflected increases by
all three of the components that make up the headline index.
The component gauging current sales conditions rose to 60 in July from 55 in June, reaching its highest level since early 2006.
the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months jumped
to 67 in July from 60 in June, while the component gauging traffic of
prospective buyers climbed to 45 from 40. Both readings were at their
highest level since late 2005.
The report also showed increases by
the housing market indexes for all four regions of the country. The
index for the West showed a substantial increase, surging up by to 62 in
July from 50 in June.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department is
scheduled to release its report on new residential construction in the
month of June. Economists expect housing starts to climb to an annual
rate of 951,000.
I am uploading some articles and trades etc related to fundamental news events (economic calendar for example) because I think that technical analysis is nothing without fundamental one. Some people asked about economic calendar - "where can we see it in MT5?".
So, I am posting this reminder:
All about Calendar tab and Macro Economic Events.
angevoyageur, 2013.03.17 16:54
It moved as expected: +122 pips !
GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.17
gbpusd 122 pips
newdigital, 2013.07.17 14:19
2013-07-17 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Bank of England Minutes]
U.K. Policymakers Unite On QE Under New Chief :
At the first rate-setting meeting of Mark Carney as Governor, Bank
of England policymakers united on both quantitative easing and interest
rate, the minutes showed Wednesday.
Carney got the support of
members on issuing forward guidance as well as consensus on stimulus
after Paul Fisher and David Miles dropped their call for more stimulus.
Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to maintain the asset purchase
programme at GBP 375 billion. Also, the MPC unanimously decided to
retain the bank rate at 0.50 percent.
"For most members, the
current policy setting was appropriate and the onus on policy at this
juncture was to reinforce the recovery by ensuring that stimulus was not
withdrawn prematurely, subject to keeping inflation on track to hit the
2 percent," the minutes said.
They made it clear that any
tightening of monetary policy is long way off. A minority assessed the
merit in pursuing a "mixed strategy" with regards to the different
policy instruments at the MPC's disposal.
The committee's August
response to the requirement in its remit to assess the merits of forward
guidance and intermediate thresholds would shed light on both the
quantum of additional stimulus required and the form it should take, the
Although asset purchases remained an effective tool
with which to inject more stimulus, some members said an expansion in
the purchase programme was not warranted at this meeting. They pointed
out that benefits of further asset purchases were likely to be small
relative to their potential costs.
"Further purchases could
complicate the transition to a more normal monetary policy stance at
some point in the future," the minutes said.
More QE will occur should the economy
suffer a marked relapse over the coming months, IHS Global Insight's
Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said. More stimulus could also occur
if gilt yields rise further, he added.
The bank said any
announcement regarding the implementation of thresholds and forward
guidance will be made on August 7 alongside the release of the Inflation
Report, rather than immediately after the next policy meeting on August
So it looks as though next month's MPC meeting will be another
non-event, with any excitement coming the week after, said Vicky
Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics. She expects the MPC to
commit to keep interest rates low until some sort of unemployment
threshold is reached.
Data released by the Office for National
Statistics today showed that the number of Britons claiming the job
seekers' allowance recorded the steepest decline in three years in June,
in a sign that the economic recovery is gaining strength.
claimant count fell 21,200 from May to 1.48 million in June. The
International Labor Organization's measure of unemployment was 7.8
percent in the March to May period.
According to the Agents' summary of business
conditions, employment intentions had edged higher in recent months,
but were flat for consumer services. Further, investment intentions
continued to be largely aimed at raising efficiency, it showed.
newdigital, 2013.07.17 14:51
2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]
2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Housing Starts]
U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Show Steep Drop In June :
Housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in
the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce
Department on Wednesday.
The report showed that housing starts
tumbled 9.9 percent to an annual rate of 836,000 in June from the
revised May estimate of 928,000.
The steep drop came as a surprise
to economists, who had expected housing starts to climb to an annual
rate of 951,000 from the 914,000 originally reported for the previous
The Commerce Department also said building permits fell 7.5
percent to an annual rate of 911,000 in June from the revised May rate
Building permits, an indicator of future housing
demand, had been expected to rise to an annual rate of 990,000 from the
974,000 originally reported for May.
EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.17
eurusd 50 pips
newdigital, 2013.07.17 17:45
2013-07-17 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - BOC Interest Rate Decision]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 1 percent :
Canada's central bank is maintaining its trendsetting policy rate at
the low level of one percent and declaring the monetary stimulus will
remain until conditions improve.
The Bank of Canada's new
governor, Stephen Poloz, said Wednesday that while real gross domestic
product growth in the first quarter of 2013 was stronger than expected,
the bank foresees a somewhat more challenging external environment over
the projection horizon than previously anticipated.
The bank sees
some hope for a pickup in Canadian growth starting in the second half of
this year as the U.S. economic recovery firms and helps boost Canadian
The bank expects economy to expand at a rate of 2.7
percent in 2014 and 2015, little change from the April forecast of 2.8
and 2.7 growth in the two years.
Just look at the chart about how the price was moved :)
USDCAD, M5, 2013.07.17
usd cad interest rate
newdigital, 2013.07.18 11:48
2013-07-18 08:30 GMT (or 10:300 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]
U.K. Retail Sales Increase as Discounts Spur Consumer Demand :
U.K. retail sales rose for a second
month in June as discounts at department stores drove demand for
clothes and electrical products.
Sales including fuel rose 0.2 percent from May, when they
surged 2.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics said
today in London. That’s the first consecutive increase since
July 2012. The median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg
News survey was for a 0.3 percent gain. From a year earlier,
sales increased 2.2 percent.
The report adds to signs that Britain’s economy is
recovering after surveys of services, manufacturing and
construction all strengthened last month. At the same time,
consumer confidence is rising and unemployment data yesterday
showed jobless claims fell the most in three years in June.
“This rise in retail sales probably has some legs,” said
David Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London and a
former central bank official. “Consumer spending broadly can
help the current run-rate of GDP growth move higher.”
The pound pared its decline against the dollar after the
data and was trading at $1.5198 as of 10:30 a.m. London time,
down 0.1 percent from yesterday. The yield on the 10-year U.K.
government bond fell 3 basis points to 2.26 percent.
GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.18
gbpusd 39 pips
newdigital, 2013.07.18 16:27
2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Index]
Philly Fed Index Shows Unexpected Increase In July :
Philadelphia-area manufacturers reported increased business
activity in the month of July, according to a report released by the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, with the index of
regional manufacturing activity reaching a two-year high.
Philly Fed said its diffusion index of current activity surged up to
19.8 in July from 12.5 in June, with a positive reading indicating an
increase in regional manufacturing activity. The increase came as a
surprise to economists, who had expected the index to drop to a reading
With the unexpected increase, the Philly Fed index reached its highest level since jumping to 36.1 in March of 2011.
EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.18
eurusd 16 pips
be careful guys to trade on Friday - I lost 170 pips today on CAD CPI :( why? look at this chart :
USDCAD, M5, 2013.07.19
CAD CPI ranging
newdigital, 2013.07.19 16:17
Canada June Consumer Price Index Report :
The following is the text of
Canada’s consumer price index report for June released
by Statistics Canada.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% in the 12 months
to June, following a 0.7% increase in May. This 0.5 percentage
point gain in the CPI was led by transportation prices, which
rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in June after falling 0.5%
The acceleration in the transportation index was mostly
attributable to prices for gasoline and for the purchase of
passenger vehicles, both of which rose in the 12 months to June
after declining in May.
Compared with June last year, gasoline prices were up 4.6%.
This followed a 1.5% decrease in May. Gasoline prices increased
in the 12 months to June in all provinces, with Manitoba and
Alberta posting the largest gains.
Prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles rose 2.0% in
the 12 months to June, after declining 0.5% in May. The year-over-year increase in June was mainly attributable to smaller
monthly price declines in June 2013 compared with the same month
Consumer prices rose in six of the eight major components
in the 12 months to June. The exceptions were health and
personal care as well as recreation, education and reading. In
addition to transportation, the shelter and food components led
the increase in the CPI in June.
Shelter costs rose 1.2% in the 12 months to June, after
increasing 1.3% in May. Natural gas prices and rent increased on
a year-over-year basis in June, while mortgage interest cost
Food prices increased 1.2% year over year in June,
following a 1.3% rise in May. Compared with June 2012, consumers
paid 1.3% more for food purchased from stores, as prices rose
for fresh vegetables (+5.1%) and meat (+2.2%). In contrast,
prices for sugar and confectionery declined 4.3%.
Consumers also paid 1.1% more for food purchased from
Consumer prices rose in nine provinces in the 12 months to
June, with the largest increase occurring in Manitoba. The
exception was British Columbia, where prices declined on a year-over-year basis.
In Manitoba, consumer prices increased 2.7% year over year
in June, following a 1.8% gain in May. Gasoline prices rose
10.7% in the 12 months to June, after advancing 0.9% in May.
Among the provinces, Manitoba posted the largest year-over-year
price increase for cigarettes and for passenger vehicle
Alberta’s CPI rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in June,
matching the increase in May. Gasoline prices advanced at a
faster rate in the 12 months to June (+9.2%) compared with May
(+1.6%). Conversely, smaller year-over-year price increases were
observed for natural gas in June relative to May.
Prices in British Columbia fell 0.5% in the 12 months to
June, after declining 0.6% in May. The province posted year-over-year price decreases for food purchased from restaurants
and homeowners’ replacement cost, while at the national level
these indexes increased. Additionally, gasoline prices rose 3.2%
year over year in June, after increasing 1.4% in May, a smaller
acceleration than at the national level.
On a seasonally adjusted
monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in June, after rising 0.2%
The seasonally adjusted indexes for six of the eight major
components increased in June. The two exceptions were alcoholic
beverages and tobacco products, which declined 0.1%, and
clothing and footwear, which posted no change. The
transportation index rose 1.6% in June, following a 0.2%
increase in May.
The Bank of Canada’s core index
(http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/62-001-x/2013006/technote-notetech2-eng.htm) rose 1.3% in the 12 months to June, following
a 1.1% increase in May.
On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index
increased 0.2% in June, after posting no change in May.
A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal
movements have been eliminated. Users employing CPI data for
indexation purposes are advised to use the unadjusted indexes.
For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonal
adjustment and identifying economic trends
2013-07-22 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]
And this is my trade for EURUSD - I was trading exact this news event :
EURUSD, M1, 2013.07.22