Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 57

Sergey Golubev
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GBP CPI : movement by +56 pips

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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.16

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gbpusd cpi 56 pips

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2013.07.16 11:21

2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

=========

U.K. Inflation Accelerates In June :

U.K. inflation rose to 2.9 percent in June on higher motor fuel and clothing and footwear charges, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday. It was the fastest since April 2012.

Although the rate exceeded the 2.7 percent seen in May, it stayed marginally below the expected rate of 3 percent. Month-on-month, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, offsetting the 0.2 percent increase in the prior month.

CPIH, the new measure of consumer price inflation including owner occupiers' housing costs, grew 2.7 percent in June, up from 2.5 percent in May.

Consumer prices excluding energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, rose 2.3 percent, in line with forecast, but slightly faster than the 2.2 percent increase registered in May.

Retail price inflation also increased in June, to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in the previous month. On a monthly basis, it was down 0.2 percent.


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.16

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eurusd 19 pips

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2013.07.16 20:13

2013-07-16 14:00 GMT | [USD - NAHB Housing Market Index]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Seven-Year High :

Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly improved in the month of July, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday, with the reading on homebuilder confidence reaching its highest level in well over seven years.

The report showed that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 57 in July from a downwardly revised 51 in June.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 52 originally reported for the previous month.

With the unexpected increase, the housing market index rose to its highest level since a matching reading in January of 2006.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, "Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten."

"Meanwhile, as the infrastructure that supplies home building returns, some previously skyrocketing building material costs have begun to soften," he added.

The unexpected increase by the housing market index reflected increases by all three of the components that make up the headline index.

The component gauging current sales conditions rose to 60 in July from 55 in June, reaching its highest level since early 2006.

Additionally, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months jumped to 67 in July from 60 in June, while the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers climbed to 45 from 40. Both readings were at their highest level since late 2005.

The report also showed increases by the housing market indexes for all four regions of the country. The index for the West showed a substantial increase, surging up by to 62 in July from 50 in June.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release its report on new residential construction in the month of June. Economists expect housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 951,000.


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

I am uploading some articles and trades etc related to fundamental news events (economic calendar for example) because I think that technical analysis is nothing without fundamental one. Some people asked about economic calendar - "where can we see it in MT5?".

So, I am posting this reminder:

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All about Calendar tab and Macro Economic Events.

angevoyageur, 2013.03.17 16:54

For traders

MT5 user interface

  • If you can't view the calendar tab, probably it's a choice a your broker :

Analysis

For developers

So, using MT5 Calendar tab in your Metatrader 5 - we can see the calendar and can upload the events on the chart. And reading those small pages - we can know the meaning of some news events.
Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

It moved as expected: +122 pips !

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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.17

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gbpusd 122 pips

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2013.07.17 14:19

2013-07-17 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Bank of England Minutes]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

U.K. Policymakers Unite On QE Under New Chief :

At the first rate-setting meeting of Mark Carney as Governor, Bank of England policymakers united on both quantitative easing and interest rate, the minutes showed Wednesday.

Carney got the support of members on issuing forward guidance as well as consensus on stimulus after Paul Fisher and David Miles dropped their call for more stimulus.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to maintain the asset purchase programme at GBP 375 billion. Also, the MPC unanimously decided to retain the bank rate at 0.50 percent.

"For most members, the current policy setting was appropriate and the onus on policy at this juncture was to reinforce the recovery by ensuring that stimulus was not withdrawn prematurely, subject to keeping inflation on track to hit the 2 percent," the minutes said.

They made it clear that any tightening of monetary policy is long way off. A minority assessed the merit in pursuing a "mixed strategy" with regards to the different policy instruments at the MPC's disposal.

The committee's August response to the requirement in its remit to assess the merits of forward guidance and intermediate thresholds would shed light on both the quantum of additional stimulus required and the form it should take, the minutes said.

Although asset purchases remained an effective tool with which to inject more stimulus, some members said an expansion in the purchase programme was not warranted at this meeting. They pointed out that benefits of further asset purchases were likely to be small relative to their potential costs.

"Further purchases could complicate the transition to a more normal monetary policy stance at some point in the future," the minutes said.


More QE will occur should the economy suffer a marked relapse over the coming months, IHS Global Insight's Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said. More stimulus could also occur if gilt yields rise further, he added.

The bank said any announcement regarding the implementation of thresholds and forward guidance will be made on August 7 alongside the release of the Inflation Report, rather than immediately after the next policy meeting on August 1.

So it looks as though next month's MPC meeting will be another non-event, with any excitement coming the week after, said Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics. She expects the MPC to commit to keep interest rates low until some sort of unemployment threshold is reached.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics today showed that the number of Britons claiming the job seekers' allowance recorded the steepest decline in three years in June, in a sign that the economic recovery is gaining strength.

The claimant count fell 21,200 from May to 1.48 million in June. The International Labor Organization's measure of unemployment was 7.8 percent in the March to May period.

According to the Agents' summary of business conditions, employment intentions had edged higher in recent months, but were flat for consumer services. Further, investment intentions continued to be largely aimed at raising efficiency, it showed.



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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2013.07.17 14:51

2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Housing Starts]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Show Steep Drop In June :

Housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

The report showed that housing starts tumbled 9.9 percent to an annual rate of 836,000 in June from the revised May estimate of 928,000.

The steep drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 951,000 from the 914,000 originally reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department also said building permits fell 7.5 percent to an annual rate of 911,000 in June from the revised May rate of 985,000.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to rise to an annual rate of 990,000 from the 974,000 originally reported for May.


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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.17

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eurusd 50 pips

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2013.07.17 17:45

2013-07-17 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - BOC Interest Rate Decision]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

=========

Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 1 percent :

Canada's central bank is maintaining its trendsetting policy rate at the low level of one percent and declaring the monetary stimulus will remain until conditions improve.

The Bank of Canada's new governor, Stephen Poloz, said Wednesday that while real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2013 was stronger than expected, the bank foresees a somewhat more challenging external environment over the projection horizon than previously anticipated.

The bank sees some hope for a pickup in Canadian growth starting in the second half of this year as the U.S. economic recovery firms and helps boost Canadian exports.

The bank expects economy to expand at a rate of 2.7 percent in 2014 and 2015, little change from the April forecast of 2.8 and 2.7 growth in the two years.

:

Just look at the chart about how the price was moved :)

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USDCAD, M5, 2013.07.17

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usd cad interest rate

USDCAD, M5, 2013.07.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2013.07.18 11:48

2013-07-18 08:30 GMT (or 10:300 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 2.1% monthly or 2.1% yearly
  • forecast data is 0.2% or 1.7% yearly
  • actual data is 0.2% or 2.2% yearly according to the latest press release

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

=========

U.K. Retail Sales Increase as Discounts Spur Consumer Demand :

U.K. retail sales rose for a second month in June as discounts at department stores drove demand for clothes and electrical products.

Sales including fuel rose 0.2 percent from May, when they surged 2.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That’s the first consecutive increase since July 2012. The median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.3 percent gain. From a year earlier, sales increased 2.2 percent.

The report adds to signs that Britain’s economy is recovering after surveys of services, manufacturing and construction all strengthened last month. At the same time, consumer confidence is rising and unemployment data yesterday showed jobless claims fell the most in three years in June.

“This rise in retail sales probably has some legs,” said David Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London and a former central bank official. “Consumer spending broadly can help the current run-rate of GDP growth move higher.”

The pound pared its decline against the dollar after the data and was trading at $1.5198 as of 10:30 a.m. London time, down 0.1 percent from yesterday. The yield on the 10-year U.K. government bond fell 3 basis points to 2.26 percent.


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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.18

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gbpusd 39 pips

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2013.07.18 16:27

2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Index]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

===========

Philly Fed Index Shows Unexpected Increase In July :

Philadelphia-area manufacturers reported increased business activity in the month of July, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, with the index of regional manufacturing activity reaching a two-year high.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index of current activity surged up to 19.8 in July from 12.5 in June, with a positive reading indicating an increase in regional manufacturing activity. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to drop to a reading of 9.0.

With the unexpected increase, the Philly Fed index reached its highest level since jumping to 36.1 in March of 2011.


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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.18

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eurusd 16 pips

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

be careful guys to trade on Friday - I lost 170 pips today on CAD CPI :( why? look at this chart :

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USDCAD, M5, 2013.07.19

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CAD CPI ranging

USDCAD, M5, 2013.07.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2013.07.19 16:17

2013-07-19 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

============

Canada June Consumer Price Index Report :

The following is the text of Canada’s consumer price index report for June released by Statistics Canada.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% in the 12 months to June, following a 0.7% increase in May. This 0.5 percentage point gain in the CPI was led by transportation prices, which rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in June after falling 0.5% in May.

The acceleration in the transportation index was mostly attributable to prices for gasoline and for the purchase of passenger vehicles, both of which rose in the 12 months to June after declining in May.

Compared with June last year, gasoline prices were up 4.6%. This followed a 1.5% decrease in May. Gasoline prices increased in the 12 months to June in all provinces, with Manitoba and Alberta posting the largest gains.

Prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles rose 2.0% in the 12 months to June, after declining 0.5% in May. The year-over-year increase in June was mainly attributable to smaller monthly price declines in June 2013 compared with the same month last year.

12-month change in the major components

Consumer prices rose in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to June. The exceptions were health and personal care as well as recreation, education and reading. In addition to transportation, the shelter and food components led the increase in the CPI in June.

Shelter costs rose 1.2% in the 12 months to June, after increasing 1.3% in May. Natural gas prices and rent increased on a year-over-year basis in June, while mortgage interest cost decreased 3.8%.

Food prices increased 1.2% year over year in June, following a 1.3% rise in May. Compared with June 2012, consumers paid 1.3% more for food purchased from stores, as prices rose for fresh vegetables (+5.1%) and meat (+2.2%). In contrast, prices for sugar and confectionery declined 4.3%.

Consumers also paid 1.1% more for food purchased from restaurants.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in nine provinces in the 12 months to June, with the largest increase occurring in Manitoba. The exception was British Columbia, where prices declined on a year-over-year basis.

In Manitoba, consumer prices increased 2.7% year over year in June, following a 1.8% gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 10.7% in the 12 months to June, after advancing 0.9% in May. Among the provinces, Manitoba posted the largest year-over-year price increase for cigarettes and for passenger vehicle registration fees.

Alberta’s CPI rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in June, matching the increase in May. Gasoline prices advanced at a faster rate in the 12 months to June (+9.2%) compared with May (+1.6%). Conversely, smaller year-over-year price increases were observed for natural gas in June relative to May.

Prices in British Columbia fell 0.5% in the 12 months to June, after declining 0.6% in May. The province posted year-over-year price decreases for food purchased from restaurants and homeowners’ replacement cost, while at the national level these indexes increased. Additionally, gasoline prices rose 3.2% year over year in June, after increasing 1.4% in May, a smaller acceleration than at the national level.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a seasonally adjusted (http://www23.statcan.gc.ca:81/imdb/p2SV_e.pl?Function=getSurvey &SDDS=2301&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2#b10) monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in June, after rising 0.2% in May.

The seasonally adjusted indexes for six of the eight major components increased in June. The two exceptions were alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, which declined 0.1%, and clothing and footwear, which posted no change. The transportation index rose 1.6% in June, following a 0.2% increase in May.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/62-001-x/2013006/technote-notetech2-eng.htm) rose 1.3% in the 12 months to June, following a 1.1% increase in May.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.2% in June, after posting no change in May.

Note to readers

A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Users employing CPI data for indexation purposes are advised to use the unadjusted indexes. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonal adjustment and identifying economic trends (http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/colc-cel?catno=11-010-X201000311141&lang=eng) .

The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the CPI’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components

Sergey Golubev
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2013-07-22 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

And this is my trade for EURUSD - I was trading exact this news event :

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EURUSD, M1, 2013.07.22

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eurusd m1

EURUSD, M1, 2013.07.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo