Press review - page 7

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Sergey Golubev
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113455
Sergey Golubev  

And as a result - just read this small article : German June Ifo Business Confidence Rises Marginally

Germany's business confidence improved slightly to 105.9 in June from 105.7 in May, reports said citing a survey from the Ifo institute on Monday. The reading came in line with economists' expectations.

The assessment of current conditions, meanwhile, fell to 109.4 from an originally estimated level of 110 a month ago. It was forecast to drop to 109.7.

The expectations index rose more-than-expected to 102.5 from 101.6 in May. The reading was seen at 102.

German June Ifo Business Confidence Rises Marginally
German June Ifo Business Confidence Rises Marginally
  • www.rttnews.com
Germany's confidence improved slightly to 105.9 in June from 105.7 in May, reports said citing a survey from the Ifo institute on Monday. The reading came in line with economists' expectations. The assessment of current conditions, meanwhile, fell to 109.4 from an originally...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  
Data to be released this week :


German Ifo business climate, current assessment, Italy consumer confidence, U.S. Chicago Fed index on Monday.

France business climate, US. Durable goods, retail sales, house price index, consumer confidence, new home sales on Tuesday.

Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France GDP, U.K. CBI distributives trades, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE core on Wednesday.

New Zealand, trade balance, import, export, Japan all industry index, France consumer confidence, U.K. current account, GDP, EU economic sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE index, PCE core, jobless claims, pending home sales on Thursday.

Japan unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. consumer confidence, France PPI, Italy, HICP, PPI, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada GDP, PPI, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
Dollar rises on QE withdrawal expectation : June 24, 2013
Dollar rises on QE withdrawal expectation : June 24, 2013
  • www.fxstreet.com
Market Review - 22/06/2013 00:44GMT Dollar rises on QE withdrawal expectation The greenback strengthened broadly on Friday due to expectation that the Federal Reserve will reduce its monetary easing by the end of this year. The single currency came under further pressure on renewed political uncertainty in Greece as Greece's small Democratic...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

We had CSPI news event for USDJPY/ What is CSPI? This is the following:

2013-06-24 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI]

This is not high/medium impacted news event. I am sorry - but it is low impacted one in most of the cases. Anyway - the price may go to some direction slowly anyway and that is why we should consider this news event as important one.

As in most of the news event - we are having the following formula to trade : if actual > forecast = good for currency (JPY in our case). Past figure was -0.3%, forecast was 0.1% and actual data was 0.3% (according to the latest release).

Just something about forecast data ... I think - you know that past data and time for news event to be released are published in the latest release (means: in original web sources) so if someone is making his own economic calendar - it will not be very difficult to do. What is most difficult in this case? The most difficult things while you are making your own calendar or trading news events (or using news events for your own technical analysis) are the following:

  • making the rating for every news event - low impact, medium impact or high impoact. It may be easy in case you are doing technical analysis (because mostr news events are already sorted by this rating) but it is not easy in case you are using news events for trading.
  • forecasting data. As we know - some of forecasting data are public one and it may be published obn some press releases etc. But if there is no consensus about forecast so this data/field may be empty - we do not have forecastibng data for some medium/low impacted news events. So, what to do? In this case - we should use the following formula actual > past = good for currency. Or we can find our own forecasting data (based on our experience for example) for our consideration.

Many traders (incl myself) were/are trading high impacted news events (nfp for example). Why? because the price is moved immediatly after news event is released. But the price may move very slowly in case of medium/low impacted news events and that is why it is difficult to trade them.

It was not article : It was my thinking in the morning :)

================

As to the article so - Japan Corporate Service Prices Rise 0.3% In May :

6/24/2013 8:15 PM ET

An index measuring corporate service prices was up 0.3 percent on year in May, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, standing at 96.3.

The headline figure topped expectations for a flat reading following the revised 0.3 percent contraction in the previous month (originally -0.4 percent).

On a monthly basis, prices added 0.1 percent after dipping a revised 0.2 percent in April.

Among the individual components of the survey, prices were up for advertising, transportation, communications and real estate.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

We are going to have the following 2 high impacted news events:

2013-06-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

I will tell later about Durable Goods Orders but now - we will discuss Consumer Confidence which will be at 14:00 GMT or at 16:00 MQ server time. This is the usual formula to trade/watch this news event: actual > forecast = good for currency (currency is USD in our case). Past data is 76.2 (according to official press release here), forecasting is 75.6, and actual data will be at 14:00 GMT. Just to remind that this is high impacted news event.

============

U.S. Consumer Confidence – Current & Historical Data

Previous Reading: 76.2

Analysts Expect: 75.6

Next Release: Tuesday, June 25, 14:00 GMT (Released Monthly, on the last Tuesday of the recorded month)

Source of Report: The Conference Board Inc.

Release URL: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm


Upcoming Release Commentary:

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped 7.2 points in May to its highest level in more than five years. April figure was also revised upward to 69.0. The assessment of current economic conditions went up nearly 6 points from April to 66.7. The assessment of expectations gained 8.1 points to 82.4 in May.

For the current month, analysts expect a small pullback in consumer confidence to 75.6. The decline may be partly attributed to the recent equity market volatility and rise in mortgage interest rates. But despite expectations for a pullback, consumer optimism is likely to record modest gains as we go through the year.


Market Impact Scenarios:

The Consumer Confidence Index released by the Conference Board is a leading indicator of consumer spending. Since consumption and spending account for a majority of the overall U.S. economic activity, a high degree of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion, while a low level is typically associated with decreased consumer demand, which leads to an economic downturn. Importantly, some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatility, and only consider index changes of at least five points to be significant.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

This USD Consumer Confidence news event is high impacted one by definition but some analytics are placing this news event in medium impact just based on the siotuation on the market.

We will have the other news event on the same time with Consumer Confidence - this news event is the following:

2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

New Home Sales is low impacted news event by definition but some analytics are placing it to be a medium or high impacted based on the situation for example.

Which news event is high impacted one irrespective of the opinion/desire of the analytics? NFP. But it is the other story ...

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

2013-06-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders] for now:

  • past data is 3.5%
  • forecasting 3.0%
  • actual data 3.6%

Just to remind the following : actual > forecast = good for currency (currency is USD in our case).

==========

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise More Than Expected In May:


With orders for transportation equipment showing a significant increase, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing that new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods rose by more than expected in the month of May.

The report said durable goods orders surged up by 3.6 percent in May following a matching increase in April. Economists had been expecting orders to increase by about 3 percent.

Excluding the 10.2 percent jump in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders increased by a more modest 0.7 percent in May compared to a 1.7 percent increase in the previous month.

However, the increase in ex-transportation orders came as a surprise to economists, who had been expecting a 0.1 percent decrease.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.06.25 13:44

This USD Consumer Confidence news event is high impacted one by definition but some analytics are placing this news event in medium impact just based on the siotuation on the market.

We will have the other news event on the same time with Consumer Confidence - this news event is the following:

2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

New Home Sales is low impacted news event by definition but some analytics are placing it to be a medium or high impacted based on the situation for example.

Which news event is high impacted one irrespective of the opinion/desire of the analytics? NFP. But it is the other story ...



U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Five-Year High In June

Consumer confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly seen a substantial improvement in the month of June, according to a report release by the Conference Board on Tuesday, with the group's consumer confidence index jumping to a five-year high.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index surged up to 81.4 in June from a downwardly revised 74.3 in May. Economists had been expecting the index to dip to 75.0 from the 76.2 originally reported for the previous month.


The Conference Board said the outlook for the labor market was also more optimistic, with consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead improving to 19.6 percent from 16.3 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs dropped to 16.1 percent from 20.0 percent.


Forum

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.06.25 16:08


About USD - Consumer Confidence which we had 6 minutes ago - it was high impacted news event, and I opened sell stop/buy stop orders for USDJPY, USDCHF and EURUSD 2 minutes before actual data release. So, we can see the results :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.25

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

confidence

USDCHF, M1, 2013.06.25, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Five-Year High In June
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Five-Year High In June
  • www.rttnews.com
Consumer confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly seen a substantial improvement in the month of June, according to a report release by the Conference Board on Tuesday, with the group's consumer confidence index jumping to a five-year high. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index surged up to 81.4 in June from a downwardly...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

From Forbes :

China Can Bail Out All Of Its Banks, But Can It Stomach A Major Bankruptcy?


China was once again in the eye of the storm on Tuesday as the Shanghai Composite fell as much as 5.8% in early trading after the People’s Bank of China refused to inject liquidity into the financial system for the fourth consecutive week.  Despite mounting fears over the state of the world’s second largest economy, the reality is that China’s state banking system can be easily bailed out by the government, which counts with more than $3.4 trillion in foreign reserves, owns the land and several major companies.

Still, with local governments sitting on more than $3 trillion in debt and a massive shadow banking system, high-profile defaults are set to come soon, testing the resolve of the newly minted administration of Li Keqiang.

“There is no chance of a [Lehman-style] banking crisis,” explained Duncan Innes-Ker, senior economist for the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding, “don’t assume a collapse scenario.”  Over the past several trading sessions, Chinese markets have been under intense stress as interbank lending rates jumped to record highs, reminding investors of the perils of short-term financing.


As China moves to curb reckless credit growth and improve transparency in order to tackle the labyrinth of bad debts that the shadow banking system has become, it will need to discipline the market through a true threat, Innes-Ker believes.  To eliminate moral hazard, they will have to swallow a big bankruptcy of a trust entity (one of the major shadow banking system vehicles), he adds.  Nomura’s research team agrees, and notes corporate defaults should begin in the second half of the year, adding the probability for GDP growth to dip below 7% has risen to 30% now.

China Can Bail Out All Of Its Banks, But Can It Stomach A Major Bankruptcy?
China Can Bail Out All Of Its Banks, But Can It Stomach A Major Bankruptcy?
  • Agustino Fontevecchia
  • www.forbes.com
China has been under intense scrutiny after a credit crunch but the stability of its banking sector in question, yet experts agree China has the firepower to bail out its whole financial system, but in order to do so, it will have to deal with a major bankruptcy to eliminate moral hazard.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.06.26 10:43

We are going to have the following news event at 14:30 MQ server MT5 time :

2013-06-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

We are using same formula for trading/estimate the direction : if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case). Past data is 2.4% (according to the latest release); forecast data is 2.4%



Market Preview: German GfK consumer confidence and US GDP eyed :


The EUR is trading lower against its major peers this morning. Markets are expected to keep a tab on German Gfk consumer confidence data slated for release later today which is expected to remain stable for July. Additionally, the revised US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter of 2013 is expected to grab market focus in today’s trading session for hints on the direction of the future monetary policy stance. At 5 am GMT, the EUR has declined 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent versus the USD and the GBP to trade at USD 1.3063 and GBP 0.8473, respectively.

Market Preview: German GfK consumer confidence and US GDP eyed
Market Preview: German GfK consumer confidence and US GDP eyed
  • www.tradingfloor.com
European markets are expected to open higher Wednesday. Traders await today's German GfK consumer confidence survey for July for growth cues. Also, today’s revised US first quarter GDP will be in focus which is likely to match the earlier estimate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

The Speeches ... as a continuation of this post and this one.

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Reuters : Dollar rises versus euro on U.S. recovery prospects, Draghi

  • Strong U.S. data lifts dollar to 3-week high versus euro
  • Dovish comments from ECB's Draghi also weigh on euro
  • Dollar falls versus safe-haven yen on China concerns

===================

Bloomberg : U.K. Gilts Climb as BOE’s Miles Says Focus Should Be on Stimulus

U.K. government bonds rose for the first time in five days after Bank of England policy maker David Miles said officials shouldn’t focus too much on the exit from stimulus as economies may still need more support.

Benchmark 10-year gilt yields fell from near the highest level in almost 20 months after BOE Governor Mervyn King said yesterday that tighter monetary policy is still some way off. The London-based central bank will publish its Financial Stability Report today. The pound weakened against the dollar and euro as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne prepared to present a spending review to parliament.

“There are signs of stabilization, markets are trying to form a base,” said John Wraith, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London. “Central bankers are keen to talk rates down again. It’s way too premature for the U.K. recovery to be confronted with tighter monetary conditions.”


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Myself : some people are permanent asking the question "what are the names of the guys who are moving the price on our metatrader terminals" ... so ...


FOREX-Dollar rises versus euro on U.S. recovery prospects, Draghi
  • www.reuters.com
* Strong U.S. data lifts dollar to 3-week high versus euro* Dovish comments from ECB's Draghi also weigh on euro* Dollar falls versus safe-haven yen on China concernsBy Jessica MortimerLONDON, June
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