Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 56

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Just about this news event :

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Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.11 15:05

2013-07-09 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ Metatrader 5 time) | [USD - Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 344K
  • forecast data is 340K
  • actual data is 360K according to the latest release

If actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Show Unexpected Increase :

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended July 6th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 360,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000.

The increase surprised economists, who had been expecting jobless claims to dip to 340,000 from the 343,000 originally reported for the previous week.


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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.11

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eurusd 24 pips

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.11

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usdchf 21 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.11

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gbpusd 33 pips

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDJPY, M5, 2013.07.11

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usdjpy 30 pips

USDJPY, M5, 2013.07.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

And some comments ... some questions ...

=========

Why this Jobless Claims is high impacted news event for some economic calendar, and some calendar is having it as low impacted? Because initially - this news event is low impacted by definition (if we are talking about how this news event should move the price by itself ony). But as this news event (value of it) is connected with the other news so the people/traders/market understands this event as high impacted from time to time.

As to the calendars so there are 2 kinds of economic calendar:

  • calendar which is used for analytical purposes only (discussion, technical analysis, "do not trade during the news" etc)
  • calendar which is used to trade news events (impacting of news events are fully related to "forecasting" the movement of the price, means: "we are expecting the price to be moved a lot during this event today so what is why this news event is high impacted in our economic calendar"

Metatrader 5 calendar is analytical calendar as I understand it.

=========

Forecasting data ... why is it so different from one calendar to an other one, but some of forecasting data are the same ones? because some forecasting data are announced in almost official way so that is why those data may be same value for any calendar for any website. But most of forecasting data values are not announced - they are just discussed before news events on different way. So, analytists are placing his own forecasting data based on something. By the way, forecasting data is not very different one from one calendar to the other one.

Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

Just about USD PPI :

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Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.12 14:55

2013-07-12 12:30 GMT | [USD - PPI core]

past data is 0.5% (monthly data)

forecast data is 0.5% (monthly)

actual data is 0.8% (mom) according to latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

===========

U.S. Producer Prices Rise More Than Expected In June :

With energy prices showing a substantial increase, the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing that U.S. producer prices rose by more than expected in the month of June.

The Labor Department said its producer price index rose by 0.8 percent in June following a 0.5 percent increase in May. Economists had been expecting the price growth to match the increase seen in the previous month.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices edged up by 0.2 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. The increase in core prices matched economist estimates.

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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.12

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eurusd 12 pips

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.12, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.12

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usdchf 13 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.12, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.12

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gbpusd 14 pips

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.12, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDJPY, M5, 2013.07.12

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usdjpy 19 pips

USDJPY, M5, 2013.07.12, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 

========

2013-07-12 13:55 GMT | [USD - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index] :

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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.12

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.12, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

Just some technical analysis from the other website (from specialized web resource).

=========

GBP/USD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The dollar was higher against the pound on Friday, as the greenback recovered following a selloff earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy still required monetary stimulus.

GBP/USD hit session lows of 1.5076 before settling at 1.5107, down 0.51% for the day, paring back the week’s gains to 1.61%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.4996, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.5220, Thursday’s high.

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after Bernanke said the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

Sterling fell to three-year lows against the dollar early in the week after the Bank of England indicated at its July meeting that interest rates are likely to remain at record low levels, given weakness in the U.K.’s economic recovery.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity. U.K. data on unemployment will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 15

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, as well as reports on producer price inflation and retail price inflation.

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

The U.K. is to publish government data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, July 19

The U.K. is to round up the week with government data on public sector net borrowing.

Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19
Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19
  • Investing.com
  • www.investing.com
Investing.com - The dollar was higher against the pound on Friday, as the greenback recovered following a selloff earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy still required monetary stimulus. GBP/USD hit session lows of 1.5076 before settling at 1.5107, down 0.51% for the day, paring back the week’s...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday as the greenback regained ground following a selloff earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy still required monetary stimulus.

USD/CAD hit session highs of 1.0405, before settling at 1.0397, up 0.28% for the day and paring the week’s losses to 1.57%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0324, Thursday’s low and a three-week low and resistance at 1.0470, Thursday’s high.

The dollar fell sharply after Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity for indications that the U.S. recovery is on track.

Market participants will also be closely watching the outcome of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy meeting, the first under the leadership of new Governor Stephen Poltz, who took over from Mark Carney in June.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 15

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

Canada is to publish official data on manufacturing sales, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

Canada is to release government data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, July 19

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation.

Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19
Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19
  • Investing.com
  • www.investing.com
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday as the greenback regained ground following a selloff earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy still required monetary stimulus. USD/CAD hit session highs of 1.0405, before settling at 1.0397, up 0.28% for the day and...
Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.15 09:34

2013-07-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

  • past data is 7.7%
  • forecast data is 7.5%
  • actual data is 7.5% according to the latest press release

If actual > forecast = good for currency

=========

China GDP Up 7.5% On Year In Q2 :

China's gross domestic product expanded 7.5 percent on year in the second quarter of 2013, the government said on Monday - matching forecasts and slowing from 7.7 in the previous quarter.

On a quarterly basis, GDP added 1.7 percent - missing expectations for 1.8 percent but up from 1.6 percent in Q1.

Also, industrial production was up 8.9 percent on year in June, shy of forecasts for 9.1 percent and down from 9.2 percent in May.

Retail sales jumped an annual 13.3 percent, beating expectations for a 12.9 percent increase - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

Fixed-asset investment for the period of January to June was up 20.3 percent on year versus expectations for 20.2 percent and down from 20.4 percent in the month prior.

=========

Aussie dollar edges up after China GDP meets expectations :

The Australian dollar clawed higher on Monday after China's second-quarter economic growth matched market expectations, easing worries that the world's second-largest economy could be slowing faster than expected.

The Aussie dollar touched an intraday high of $0.9110 after the release of China's second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, and last stood at $0.9097, up 0.5 percent from late U.S. trade on Friday.

"The Australian dollar rose since there had been fears that the number might come in lower. But at the same time, the data wasn't spectacularly good either," said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) in Singapore.

China's annual economic growth slowed to 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2013 from 7.7 percent - the second straight quarter of slower growth, official data showed on Monday.

Other Chinese economic indicators released along with the GDP were mixed, with retail sales exceeding expectations but industrial output and fixed-asset investment coming in below market forecasts.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2013.07.15

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audusd 39 pips

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.07.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.15 15:10

2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.8%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Retail Sales Rise Much Less Than Expected In June :

Retail sales in the U.S. rose by much less than anticipated in the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday.

The report said retail sales increased by 0.4 percent in June compared to a downwardly revised 0.5 percent increase in May.

Economists had been expecting retail sales to jump by 0.8 percent compared to the 0.6 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a notable increase in auto sales, retail sales came in unchanged in June versus economist estimates for a 0.5 percent increase.


Trading Retail Sales :

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GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.15

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gbpusd retail sales

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.07.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.15

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eurusd retail sales

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.15

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eurusd gbpusd usdchf retail sales

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  
newdigital:

Trading Retail Sales :




And this is the result of the trading of this enws event : +869 dollars in profit


Files:
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

NZDUSD CPI with 23 pips movement :

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NZDUSD, M5, 2013.07.16

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nzdusd cpi

NZDUSD, M5, 2013.07.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.16 08:44

This is CPI day today - We had CPI for NZD, we will hace CPI for GBP and we will have CPI for USD. So, Happy CPI Day!

=======

2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

=========

New Zealand CPI Rises 0.7% On Year In Q2 :

Consumer prices in New Zealand gained 0.7 percent on year in the second quarter of 2013, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - touching a 14-year low.

The headline figure missed forecasts for an increase of 0.8 percent and eased from the 0.9 percent gain in the previous quarter.

"This annual increase is the lowest since 1999, and the fourth annual increase in a row below 1 percent," prices manager Chris Pike said.

Moving higher were prices for cigarettes and tobacco (up 12 percent), reflecting a rise in excise duty. Housing rentals (up 2.1 percent) and purchase of newly built houses (up 4.1 percent) were influenced by price rises in the South Island, particularly Canterbury, the bureau said. Electricity (up 3.4 percent) and local authority rates (4.3 percent) also increased in the year to the June 2013 quarter.

These increases were partly offset by decreases for petrol (down 2.8 percent), telecommunication services (down 4.9 percent), domestic air fares (down 12 percent), and audio-visual equipment (down 14 percent).

On a quarterly basis, consumer prices were up 0.2 percent versus forecasts for 0.3 percent after showing 0.4 percent in the first quarter.

"There were increases in electricity and housing-related prices, countered by lower petrol and motor car prices," Pike said.

In the quarter, electricity prices rose 2.6 percent. Vegetable prices (up 7.0 percent) were influenced by seasonal price rises for tomatoes and lettuce. The purchase of newly built houses (up 1.7 percent) and housing rentals (up 0.4 percent) were influenced by rises in both the North and South islands, the bureau said.

The strongest of these housing-related price rises were in Canterbury, with purchase of newly built houses up 2.9 percent and housing rentals up 1.1 percent. Dwelling insurance (up 9.9 percent) also rose.

Countering these rises, petrol prices fell 2.5 percent in the quarter, and were at their lowest level since the September 2011 quarter. Fruit prices fell 4.5 percent, influenced by seasonally lower prices for apples and kiwifruit. Both second-hand car prices (down 1.9 percent) and new car prices (down 1.0 percent) also fell.