price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal in the end of October this year, and the price is on testing 1.3551 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3588 level as the nearest bullish weekly target.
price is located within the following support/resistance levels:
If W1 price breaks 1.3155
support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.If weekly price breaks 1.3551
resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 1.3588 target to re-enter.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 12:18
Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 27 - December 04 (based on the article)
The US dollar reached new highs against the euro and the yen, but some profit taking was seen amid the Thanksgiving vaction. We are not back to full business: GDP data in the US and Canada, US consumer confidence and a full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls stand out.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 09:04
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech and 34 pips price movement
2016-11-29 00:45 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]
[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech titled "The Role of Services in Canada’s Economy" at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, in Toronto.
From official report:
USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 15:06
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product2016-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
From official release:
EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
USD/CAD M5: 33 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 15:07
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 36 pips range price movement
2016-11-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.==========
From official report:
USD/CAD M5: 36 pips range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 16:25
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: ISM Purchasing Managers' Index2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
"The November PMI® registered 53.2
percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading
of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase
of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The
Production Index registered 56 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher
than the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index
registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the
October reading of 52.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered
49 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the October
reading of 47.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in
November, the same reading as in October, indicating higher raw
materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the
panel cite increasing demand, some tightness in the labor market and
plans to reduce inventory by the end of the year."
EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
USD/CAD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
USD/JPY M5: 25 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 14:55
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls2016-12-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
"The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."
EUR/USD M5: 33 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
S&P 500 M5: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 14:57
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and 46 pips range price movement
2016-12-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]
[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.==========
"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, following a 1.5% gain in October."
USD/CAD M5: 46 pips range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 14:47
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 38 pips range price movement
2016-12-23 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.24 05:30
What can we expect in 2017? Interview with FXStreet (based on the article)
What emerging trends or issues should traders prepare for in 2017?
"The easy answer is growing impact from politics: Trump’s first year in office, as well as elections in France and later Germany, will keep us busy. This makes central bankers somewhat less important than they used to be. They will no longer be “the only game in town” but will not disappear in the shadows either. In Europe, some fiscal stimulus could replace austerity on an election year and in line with other countries. Britain could also join in. This could be the year when we talk about “inflation lifting its ugly head” more often than worries about deflation which have dominated beforehand. Inflation could come from China rather than from the US."
Which will be the best and worst performing currencies in 2017 and why?
"The US dollar could reverse its gains as the dust settles in after Trump’s inauguration. Like with many politicians, promises are meant to be broken and a Republican Congress is where the buck could stop. The pound could extend its falls as Brexit reality bites in, something that has not happened so far. The winners could be the euro, that may fall early in the year but recover on fiscal stimulus and more mainstream election results. Another winner could be the Australian dollar, which could enjoy Chinese efforts to maintain its growth."
Which under-the-radar currency pair do you expect to make a big move in 2017?
"USD/CAD could make a big move to the upside due to two reasons. The first is oil prices unable to rise and this could weigh on the loonie. Another reason is a lack of US demand due to less stimulus. Both factors could trigger a rate cut. The BOC has already told us that the lower end for rates is -0.50%, a full percentage point under the current level. The Canadian dollar has scope for falls, something that may eventually help the Canadian economy, but not in 2017."
What will you be focused on next year?
"I will be focused on politics and their impact on markets. Central bankers are still important but have somewhat less influence, and they are less exciting than the impact of politics on currencies. This is not limited to the elections but also to policy, which could certainly be on the move."