is on located to be below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the bearish breakdown will be continuing for the week in the secondary ranging way - price is breaking 1.0911 support level to below for 1.0814 bearish daily target.
Chinkou Span line is located below
the price for the bearish breakdown, and Absolute
Strength indicator is evaluating the
trend as a ranging bearish market condition in the near future.
If D1 price breaks 1.0968
on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.If D1 price breaks 1.1141
on close bar from below to above so we may wee the reversal of the daily price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition.If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : breakdown
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.23 12:29
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 23 - October 30 (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.24 07:13
EUR: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
H4 price is continuing with the bearish breakdown by 1.0858 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be resumed while Morgan Stanley is suggesting for the traders to be in neutral with this pair for the week:
"The latest ECB meeting did not reveal any new information and put all
attention on the December meeting instead. EURUSD break below the Jun
low of 1.0913 could open downside to the February/March low of around
1.0820. On the crosses, however, EUR is likely to remain supported.
Should global and EMU inflation continue rising, ECB tapering talk could
come back into focus and the current rate cut priced by the markets may
be reduced, supporting the currency. In this scenario, global yield
curves may also continue steepening, which could hit risk appetite,
providing further support for EUR crosses."
Anyway, if H4 intra-day price breaks 1.0858 support to below on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing, otherwise the price will be on bearish reanging within narrow s/r levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 15:30
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 20 pips range price movement
2016-10-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.
From official report:
EUR/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 19:20
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/JPY : The Conference Board Consumer Confidence2016-10-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
"Consumer confidence retreated in October, after back-to-back monthly
gains,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The
Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and
employment conditions softened, while optimism regarding the short-term
outlook retreated somewhat. However, consumers’ expectations regarding
their income prospects in the coming months were relatively unchanged.
Overall, sentiment is that the economy will continue to expand in the
near-term, but at a moderate pace."
EUR/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events
USD/JPY M5: 74 pips range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.26 16:33
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Home Sales and 14 pips range price movement
2016-10-26 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]
[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.
From market watch article: New-home sales run at annual 593,000 rate in September as market grinds slowly higher
EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by New Home Sales news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.27 14:58
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH : Durable Goods Orders2016-10-27 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders soften in September
EUR/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
USD/CNH M5: 28 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
Something Interesting in Financial Video October 2016
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 08:36
How to Trade the GDP Number
A lesson on what traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets look
for when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Number is released.
As we have learned in previous lessons there are many components of the
US Economy which can affect overall economic growth and inflation
expectations. Some of the major examples here are how many people are
employed in the economy vs. unemployed, how much the housing market is
growing in different parts of the country, and at what rate the prices
for different products in the economy are seeing increases.
As all of these things are so important to the economy and therefore to
the markets, there are no shortage of economic reports which are
released to try and help people gauge how things are going with
different pieces of the economy. It is important for us as traders to
understand the major reports here as even if we are trading off of
technicals, understanding what is happening in the market from a
fundamental standpoint can help establish a longer term bias for
trading. In the short term an understanding of these numbers will also
help to assess the erratic and sometimes extreme movements which can
occur after economic releases.
The granddaddy of all economic reports is the release of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) number for the economy. The Gross Domestic
Product for the US or any other country is the final value of all the
goods and services produced in that economy. Essentially what you get
after calculating GDP by adding up the value of all goods and services
produced in the economy is a measure of the size of the overall economy.
It is for this reason that market participants will watch the GDP
number closely as the rate of growth in this number represents the rate
of growth in the overall economy.
As a side note here, GDP also allows a comparison to be made of the
sizes of different economies from around the world, as well as their
growth rates. To give you an idea of just how large the US Economy is,
2007 GDP for the United States was estimated at 13.7 Trillion dollars.
This is in comparison to the next largest economy in the world, Japan
which has a GDP of under 5 Trillion Dollars.
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released each month with Advance
Estimates which are incomplete and subject to further revision being
released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter
being reported. In the second month after the end of the quarter being
reported preliminary numbers (which basically means more accurate than
advanced) normally are released and then finally the final GDP number is
released at the end of the 3rd month after the end of the quarter being
Traders are going to focus heavily on the growth rate released in the
Advanced number and markets will also move on any significant revisions
made in the preliminary and final GDP numbers.
GBPUSD M5: 59 pips range price movement by USD - GDP news event:
EURUSD M5: 42 pips rangeprice movement by USD - GDP news event:
USDCAD M5: 83 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 08:59
In addition to looking at the growth or lack thereof in the overall GDP
number, traders will also look at the growth or lack there of in the
different components that make up the number. As GDP represents the
value of everything in an Economy you can imagine the amount of data
that goes into compiling the number, much of which is published for
market participants to view. By looking at the different pieces which
make up GDP we can get a good picture of what is happening not only with
the overall economy but with all the different components of the
economy which are reported on to come up with the final number.
EURUSD M5: 33 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:
What the GDP number is going to give you a feel for is how much each of
the above grew for the quarter and what their overall contribution to
the economy was. The above numbers will then be broken down into more
detailed numbers which go into compiling the final number for the above 4
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 11:16
Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (adapted from the article)
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Expands Annualized 2.5% or Greater
Daily price is located below 100-day SMA (100 SMA) and 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels: the price is testing 1.0859 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0814 nearest daily target to re-enter. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0859 support level to be crossed for the bearish trend to be resumed.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 14:59
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD : U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)2016-10-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]
[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
EUR/USD M5: 24 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
USD/CAD M5: 39 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events