Press review - page 441

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Home Loans and 50 pips price movement

2016-10-11 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]

• past data is -4.5%
• forecast data is -1.3%
• actual data is -3.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.

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From RTT News article:

• "The total number of home loans issued in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - coming in at 53,109."
• "That missed forecasts for a fall of 1.5 percent following the 4.5 percent decline in July."
• "Investment lending added 0.1 percent to A$11.915 billion following the 0.5 percent gain in the previous month."

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AUD/USD M5: 50 pips range price movement by Australia Home Loans news event

[Sergey Golubev]

So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? (adapted from the article)

"In short, the Yuan weakness gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and export advantage that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy stimulus that would naturally align with the “yield curve control’ announced on September 21."

"On Monday, the Chinese Renminbi (off-short Yuan) fell by its largest amount in four months after China opened following National Day Golden Week holiday. The drop amounted to 0.46% for the Yuan but continues to validate the trend of a stronger USD and weaker CNH. The weakening took the Yuan to its lowest level (6.7501) since September 2010 according to Bloomberg data."

"The weakening aligns with China FX reserves shows a rising amount of capital is leaving. The increase in capital flows could bring volatility to global markets as the world awaits the next move by the Federal Reserve that could bring down the Yuan and is encouraging wealthy citizens of China to move their money overseas in yuan amid Yuan depreciation expectations.
So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? In short, the Yuan weakness gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and export advantage that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy stimulus that would naturally align with the “yield curve control’ announced on September 21."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Race To Debase Resumes In Asia (based on the article)

• "Some traders have looked at the move in USD/JPY post-Brexit as a triangle. That’s a valid view, but a break above 104.32 (September Opening Range High) that would invalidate such a pattern and could add to the building evidence of a pending bullish breakout. A break above 104.32 would then turn Bullish focus to the post-Brexit high of 107.48."
• "Opening Range reversals are commonplace in strong trends and should be indicative of trend continuation. In the case of October, we’d have an opening range reversal if the price of USD/JPY broke below 101.17 (Monday’s low) in the second week of October and continued lower. However, a break above the high of 104.15 on a closing basis would further embolden USD/JPY bulls. Given the significant macro-event risk of the US Presidential Election, the opening range low of 101.17 should remain on watch as an invalidation of the recent excitement."
• "A continuation through the resistance levels mentioned above could see traders start to push the market higher in fear of missing out on the next USD/JPY long trade."
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: NFIB Small Business Index

2016-10-11 10:00 GMT | [USD - NFIB Small Business Index]

• past data is 94.4
• forecast data is 95.2
• actual data is 94.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - NFIB Small Business Index] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.

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From 247 wallst article: Small Business Optimism Slips Again in September

"Clearly the stock market loves the Fed, but bloated stock values are not real productive wealth which is created by real investment in plant, equipment, research and infrastructure, weak in this recovery. Even housing with low mortgage rates has not performed up to expectation based on demographics. It has not occurred to the Fed that what meager growth we have had has occurred in spite of government policy, not because of it. The private sector continues to perform poorly in light of the barriers that governments at all levels throw up in its path."

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EUR/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events

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USD/CAD M5: 29 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech at the Fireside Chat with the Business Council of New York, in Albany.

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New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: "Dudley speaks on the economy. Based on his recent speeches, we think he is now of the view that, from a risk-management perspective, accommodation should be removed cautiously given the lack of scope to lower rates in the event of an economic downturn."

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[Sergey Golubev]

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 13:40 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member George Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member George Speaks] = Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Annual Payments Symposium.

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Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: "George speaks on the economic outlook. She has dissented several times this year. We expect her to maintain her call for a rate hike."

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[Sergey Golubev]

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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FOMC minutes: "Given the three dissents in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting, we expect the minutes to reveal widening divisions within the committee over the appropriate stance of policy. On one side are those who believe a rate hike in September would have been warranted given that the economy is operating near mandate-consistent levels and mediumterm risks are rising. These concerns were expressed by regional Fed presidents Rosengren, Mester, and George in remarks leading up to, and following, the meeting. On the other side are those FOMC members, primarily within the Board, who point to a slower removal of labor market slack, via trends in participation and other variables, and a lack of evidence that inflation or financial instability are rising, as supporting a further delay in policy normalization."

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[Sergey Golubev]

World's 25 Biggest Banks In 2016 (based on the article)

Bank	Headquarters	Assets ($Trillion as of Dec. 31, 2015)	Assets (March 31, 2015)	Rank 2016	Rank 2015
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China	China	3.42	3.45	1	1
China Construction Bank	China	2.83	2.82	2	2
Agricultural Bank of China	China	2.74	2.72	3	3
Bank of China	China	2.59	2.58	4	5
Mitsubishi UFJ	Japan	2.46	2.38	5	8
HSBC Holdings	UK	2.41	2.67	6	4
JPMorgan Chase	US	2.35	2.58	7	6
BNP Paribas	France	2.16	2.57	8	7
Bank of America	US	2.14	2.14	9	9
Credit Agricole	France	1.84	1.94	10	12

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 127 pips price movement

2016-10-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 346B
• forecast data is 365B
• actual data is 278B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From Forex Live article:

• "China continues to face relatively large difficulties."
• "China will implement policies to stabilise foreign trade growth."
• "Leading indicators show that pressure on exports is likely to ease in Q4."

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USD/CNH M5: 127 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging on reversal, daily ranging bullish

2016-09-13 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -3.0M
• forecast data is 0.4M
• actual data is 4.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.9M million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging on reversal. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels for the bearish breakdown, and it was was bounced to above to be crossed 100 SMA/200 SMA back to above for the bullish reversal. For now, the price is on ranging near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA within 52.11 bullish continuation resistance level and 50.90 bearish reversal support level.

If the price breaks 52.11 resistance level on close M5 bar to above so the bullish market condition will be resumed.
If the price breaks 50.90 support level to below on close M5 bar so the price will be fully reversed to the bearish market condition.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging with 53.71/45.07 key levels. The price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish are of the chart: price is testing 53.71 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed; alternative, if the price breaks 49.49 support level on daily close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.

If the price breaks 53.71 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 49.49 support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 42.72 support level on close daily bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.