USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 02.10 - 09.10: ranging bullish to be continuing

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Sergey Golubev
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106803
Sergey Golubev  

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3253 resistance level located in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.2999 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator are evaluating the trend as the primary bullish in the future. Ascending triangle pattern was forme by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be resumed

If D1 price breaks 1.2999 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.3253 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.3280 bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3253 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2999 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.32531.2999
1.32801.2822

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.01 11:58

Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 02 - October 09 (based on the article)

The third quarter ended with mixed moves in currencies. A full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a rate decision in Australia and other figures fill the first week of the last quarter. These are the main events on forex calendar.

  1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Manufacturing PMI  is expected to reach 52.1 in September.
  2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. No change in rates is expected this time. This is the first rate decision made by the new governor Philip Lowe.
  3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP report is expected to show a 166,000 jobs gain in September.
  4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Non-manufacturing activity is expected to reach 53.1 in September.
  5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to register 255,000 jobs gain this week.
  7. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Economists expected a smaller gain of 16,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 6.9%.
  8. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. The number of new jobs in September is expected to be 171,000 while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 4.9%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.2% m/m.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
106803
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.05 17:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-10-05 13:45 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 57.1 percent in September, 5.7 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to 60.3 percent, 8.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 86th consecutive month, at a noticeably faster rate in September. The New Orders Index registered 60 percent, 8.6 percentage points higher than the reading of 51.4 percent in August. The Employment Index increased 6.5 percentage points in September to 57.2 percent from the August reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index increased 2.2 percentage points from the August reading of 51.8 percent to 54 percent, indicating prices increased in September for the sixth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. The comments from the respondents are mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty does exist due to geopolitical conditions coupled with the upcoming U.S. presidential election."

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EUR/USD M5: 27 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/CAD M5: 43 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
106803
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.07 14:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-10-07 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."

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EUR/USD M5: 52 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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USD/CAD M5: 103 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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