Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
forecast on Forex
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 13:02
News is different from forecast, and forecast is different from technical analysis.This is how I understand it:
Forecasts. You are following some system which is 'black box' for you and can not be disclosed in public. You just believe in this unknown system/person/trader/coder which is making forecast for you. Forecasts are made with no any alternatives, for example: "buy EUR/USD at 1.2440 now/tomorrow at 10 am etc."It is similar with weather forecast (no one is responsible for false signal for example). There are free forecasts and commercial forecasts.
Technical analysis. The person is using indicators or/and price action to make a technical analysis describing the market condition in the past together with price movement explanation to the future on alternative ways. For example: "if the price breaks this level to above so ...., alternative - if the price will cross this level to below so ...".In this case - technical analysis is acting as the science which everybody can repeat in MT4/MT5, and you are always having the choice about what to do (to buy, or to sell, or to do nothing).There are free technical analysis and commercial technical analysis.There are some websites and sources which are publishing the articles with the word 'Forecast' (dailyfx.com and investing.com for example) but if you look at those articles so you will understand that it is the technical analysis only.Analysts (the persons who are providing the technical analysis) consider the forecasts/forecasters as the forex scam (so, basicly they do not like each other).We do not have forecasts on this part of the forum because it will be consider as an advertisement with commercial promotion anyway (technical analysis and forecasts can not be on the same subforums because of the differences between them: technical analysis is the science, and forecast is commercial or promotional service.------
Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.20 07:19
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Evans Speaks and range price movement
2017-06-19 23:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks] = Speech about current economic conditions and monetary policy at the New York University Money Marketeers event.
From official report :
EUR/USD M5: range price movement by China Industrial Output news event
Forecast for Q2'17 - levels for Brent Crude Oil
Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.20 16:15
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: 46.62 support broken to below; 43.55 is the weekly bearish reversal level
Weekly price was blouced from 54.64 resistance level to below with 46.62 support level to be broken to below for 43.55 bearish reversal target. The price is within the following support/resistance levels:
Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.23 14:47
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement
2017-06-23 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Official Cash Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 07:53
The Week Ahead: S&P 500 targets (based on the article)
Weekly price for S&P 500 is located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for 2,453 resistance level to bee testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price 2,386 support to below on weekly close bar so the logican correction wilkl be started with 2,354 and 2,312 levels as the targets to re-enter.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 09:02
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement
2017-07-03 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event
By nature market movement is unpredictable and random, in my opinion any indicator or approach may have the same rate of success its the rule in regards to risk reward where the trader set will spell the difference and of course how he implements his trading strategy will also matters a lot.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.06 09:54
US Dollar (USD) to Argentine Peso (ARS): daily bullish breakout; 17.1278 is the key (based on the article)
USD/ARS daily price is on bullish breakout by ascendsing triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 17.1278 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the pruice breaks16.6319 support so the correction will be started, and if the price breaks 15.8342 support level to below on close daily bar so we may see the daily bearish reversal, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.11 16:03
And some comments ... some questions ...
Why this Jobless Claims is high impacted news event for some economic calendar, and some calendar is having it as low impacted? Because initially - this news event is low impacted by definition (if we are talking about how this news event should move the price by itself ony). But as this news event (value of it) is connected with the other news so the people/traders/market understands this event as high impacted from time to time.
As to the calendars so there are 2 kinds of economic calendar:
Metatrader 5 calendar is analytical calendar as I understand it.
Forecasting data ... why is it so different from one calendar to an other one, but some of forecasting data are the same ones? because some forecasting data are announced in almost official way so that is why those data may be same value for any calendar for any website. But most of forecasting data values are not announced - they are just discussed before news events on different way. So, analytists are placing his own forecasting data based on something. By the way, forecasting data is not very different one from one calendar to the other one.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.07 14:55
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls
2017-07-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events