Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 218

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forecast on Forex

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 13:02

News is different from forecast, and forecast is different from technical analysis.
This is how I understand it:

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Forecasts. You are following some system which is 'black box' for you and can not be disclosed in public. You just believe in this unknown system/person/trader/coder which is making forecast for you. Forecasts are made with no any alternatives, for example: "buy EUR/USD at 1.2440 now/tomorrow at 10 am etc."
It is similar with weather forecast (no one is responsible for false signal for example). There are free forecasts and commercial forecasts.

Technical analysis. The person is using indicators or/and price action to make a technical analysis describing the market condition in the past together with price movement explanation to the future on alternative ways. For example: "if the price breaks this level to above so ...., alternative - if the price will cross this level to below so ...".
In this case - technical analysis is acting as the science which everybody can repeat in MT4/MT5, and you are always having the choice about what to do (to buy, or to sell, or to do nothing).
There are free technical analysis and commercial technical analysis.

There are some websites and sources which are publishing the articles with the word 'Forecast' (dailyfx.com and investing.com for example) but if you look at those articles so you will understand that it is the technical analysis only.

Analysts (the persons who are providing the technical analysis) consider the forecasts/forecasters as the forex scam (so, basicly they do not like each other).

We do not have forecasts on this part of the forum because it will be consider as an advertisement with commercial promotion anyway (technical analysis and forecasts can not be on the same subforums because of the differences between them: technical analysis is the science, and forecast is commercial or promotional service.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.20 07:19

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Evans Speaks and range price movement 

2017-06-19 23:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks] = Speech about current economic conditions and monetary policy at the New York University Money Marketeers event.

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From official report :

  • "As you know, the Committee voted to increase the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant thought that appropriate policy would incorporate one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2017—bringing the total for this year to three—and then three more increases in each of 2018 and 2019. And as Chair Yellen stated in her press conference’s opening remarks, the Committee expects to begin gradually reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet sometime this year."
  • "It remains to be seen whether there will be two rate hikes this year, or three, or four—or exactly when we start paring back reinvestments of maturing assets. Regardless, the important feature is that the current environment supports very gradual rate hikes and slow preset reductions in our balance sheet."
  • "And given we may be facing more elevated ZLB risks for some time, risk-management considerations argue for tilting toward accommodative policies that help reduce the risk of returning to the ZLB."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by China Industrial Output news event



 

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Forecast for Q2'17 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.20 16:15

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: 46.62 support broken to below; 43.55 is the weekly bearish reversal level

Weekly price was blouced from 54.64 resistance level to below with 46.62 support level to be broken to below for 43.55 bearish reversal target. The price is within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 54.64 resistance level located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 43.55 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the weekly bearish reversal to be started.


  • If weekly price breaks 54.64 resistance level to above on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 43.55 support to below on close bar so the primary bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for the strong bearish/bullish direction.
Resistance
 Support
54.6443.55
58.35N/A

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.23 14:47

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-06-23 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Official Cash Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in May, following a 1.6% gain in April."
  • "Excluding food and energy, the CPI was up 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, after posting a 1.5% increase in April."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 07:53

The Week Ahead: S&P 500 targets (based on the article)


Weekly price for S&P 500 is located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for 2,453 resistance level to bee testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price 2,386 support to below on weekly close bar so the logican correction wilkl be started with 2,354 and 2,312 levels as the targets to re-enter.

  • "Last week Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist discussed on CNBC his year-end S&P 500 target of 2700. As an investor should this make you nervous?"
  • "If a larger number of analysts start to raise their targets I would become more concerned as typically this occurs before a correction.  Some may remember in early 2016 when crude oil dropped below $40 many lowered their price targets to the $20-$25 area. As it turned out crude oil rallied for the rest of the year to close $20 higher."

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 09:02

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2017-07-03 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 

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From official report :

  • "At 50.4 in June, the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark. This was up from 49.6 and signalled an improvement in the health of the sector after a marginal deterioration in May. Operating conditions have now strengthened in nine of the ten past months, though the latest improvement was only slight."
  • "Relatively subdued customer demand also weighed on optimism towards the 12-month business outlook, with confidence edging down to a six-month low in June."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event



 

By nature market movement is unpredictable and random, in my opinion any indicator or approach may have the same rate of success its the rule in regards to risk reward where the trader set will spell the difference and of course how he implements his trading strategy will also matters a lot.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.06 09:54

US Dollar (USD) to Argentine Peso (ARS): daily bullish breakout; 17.1278 is the key (based on the article)

USD/ARS daily price is on bullish breakout by ascendsing triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 17.1278 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the pruice breaks16.6319 support so the correction will be started, and if the price breaks 15.8342 support level to below on close daily bar so we may see the daily bearish reversal, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "Merval index rose by 0.13%, closing at 22,415.77 points, boosted by the peso devaluation, which increased the demand for companies that rely on exports and have their shares traded on foreign financial markets. Lower oil prices, however, weighed on oil and gas shares and kept the Merval from rising further."
  • "Traders mentioned that the dollar rise reflects political uncertainty before the legislative elections, higher demand by banks and companies to cover short positions and the MSCI's decision to keep Argentina as a frontier market, instead of upgrading the country to the emerging market status."


 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.11 16:03

And some comments ... some questions ...

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Why this Jobless Claims is high impacted news event for some economic calendar, and some calendar is having it as low impacted? Because initially - this news event is low impacted by definition (if we are talking about how this news event should move the price by itself ony). But as this news event (value of it) is connected with the other news so the people/traders/market understands this event as high impacted from time to time.

As to the calendars so there are 2 kinds of economic calendar:

  • calendar which is used for analytical purposes only (discussion, technical analysis, "do not trade during the news" etc)
  • calendar which is used to trade news events (impacting of news events are fully related to "forecasting" the movement of the price, means: "we are expecting the price to be moved a lot during this event today so what is why this news event is high impacted in our economic calendar"

Metatrader 5 calendar is analytical calendar as I understand it.

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Forecasting data ... why is it so different from one calendar to an other one, but some of forecasting data are the same ones? because some forecasting data are announced in almost official way so that is why those data may be same value for any calendar for any website. But most of forecasting data values are not announced - they are just discussed before news events on different way. So, analytists are placing his own forecasting data based on something. By the way, forecasting data is not very different one from one calendar to the other one.



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.07 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-07-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events



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