is breaking 1.3280 resistance level to above for the reversal of the price movement from the bearish to the ranging bullish market condition to be located inside Ichimoku cloud. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above, Absolute
Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bullish condition in the near future, and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku is indicating the good breakout of the price movement with the possible bullish reversal.
If W1 price breaks 1.2763
support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.If W1 price breaks 1.3280
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : rally
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.08 09:07
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 14:36
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: NFIB Small Business Index2016-10-11 10:00 GMT | [USD - NFIB Small Business Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - NFIB Small Business Index] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.
From 247 wallst article: Small Business Optimism Slips Again in September
"Clearly the stock market loves the Fed, but bloated stock values are not
real productive wealth which is created by real investment in plant,
equipment, research and infrastructure, weak in this recovery. Even
housing with low mortgage rates has not performed up to expectation
based on demographics. It has not occurred to the Fed that what meager
growth we have had has occurred in spite of government policy, not
because of it. The private sector continues to perform poorly in light
of the barriers that governments at all levels throw up in its path."
EUR/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events
USD/CAD M5: 29 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:28
Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)
2016-10-12 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech at the Fireside Chat with the Business Council of New York, in Albany.
New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: "Dudley
speaks on the economy. Based on his recent speeches, we think he is now
of the view that, from a risk-management perspective, accommodation
should be removed cautiously given the lack of scope to lower rates in
the event of an economic downturn."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:41
2016-10-12 13:40 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member George Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member George Speaks] = Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Annual Payments Symposium.
Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: "George
speaks on the economic outlook. She has dissented several times this
year. We expect her to maintain her call for a rate hike."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:54
2016-10-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing
in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that
influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
FOMC minutes: "Given the three dissents in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting, we expect the minutes to reveal widening divisions within the committee over the appropriate stance of policy. On one side are
those who believe a rate hike in September would have been warranted
given that the economy is operating near mandate-consistent levels and
mediumterm risks are rising. These concerns were expressed by regional
Fed presidents Rosengren, Mester, and George in remarks leading up to,
and following, the meeting. On the other side are
those FOMC members, primarily within the Board, who point to a slower
removal of labor market slack, via trends in participation and other
variables, and a lack of evidence that inflation or financial
instability are rising, as supporting a further delay in policy
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 15:27
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales2016-10-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
From MarketWatch article: U.S. retail sales snap back in September
"Sales at U.S. retail stores rebounded in September, with auto dealers
and gas stations racking up the biggest gains, in a sign consumers are
still spending fast enough to keep the economy on solid ground. Retail
sales rose 0.6% last month to snap back from a small decline in August
that was the first in five months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch
had forecast a 0.7% increase."
EUR/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events
USD/CAD M5: 23 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events
NZD/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.15 09:46
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 16 - October 23 (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.15 18:26
USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data point this week will
take place on Wednesday, which will be the October 19 Bank of Canada
Policy Rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report.
Traders will be on watch for how the Bank of Canada is seeing
stabilization in the energy sector, whether or not there is a continued
pickup in the non-commodity exports to emerging economies, and how they
see growth in the rest of the economy."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.17 15:00
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's International Transactions in Securities and 27 pips range price movement
2016-10-17 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases] = Total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month.
From official report:
USD/CAD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Canada's International Transactions in Securities news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.19 13:39
Trading News Events: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)
Bullish CAD Trade: BoC Advocates Wait-and-See Approach
is located between 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100
SMA) for the ranging market condition within the narrow support/resistance levels.