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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.23 16:16
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: CB Consumer Confidence and 20 pips price movement
2016-02-23 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®,
which had increased moderately in January, declined in February. The
Index now stands at 92.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in January. The
Present Situation Index declined from 116.6 to 112.1, while the
Expectations Index decreased from 85.3 to 78.9 in February.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®,
based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The
Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information
and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for
the preliminary results was February 11."
“Consumer confidence decreased in February, after posting a modest
gain in January,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at
The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions
weakened, primarily due to a less favorable assessment of business
conditions. Consumers’ short-term outlook grew more pessimistic, with
consumers expressing greater apprehension about business conditions,
their personal financial situation, and to a lesser degree, labor market
prospects. Continued turmoil in the financial markets may be rattling
consumers, but their assessment of current conditions suggests the
economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace in the near-term.”
EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.24 08:02
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.25 11:30
GBPUSD M5: 37 pips range price movement by UK GDP news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.24 10:39
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: Ranging - Daily closing below 1.0989 would shift to bearish.
"EUR edged below 1.0990 (low of 1.0987) but closed higher at 1.1015. Only a daily closing below 1.0990 would indicate further EUR weakness
towards the next support at 1.0850. Overall, this pair is expected to
remain under pressure unless it can reclaim 1.1130 in the next few days."
As we see from the chart above - the daily price broke 200-day SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging around 100-day SMA area. If the price breaks 1.0989 key support level on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing, otherwise - the price will be ranging within 200-SMA/100-SMA levels waiting for direction.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.25 06:43
We expect gold prices to average $980 an ounce this year and $860 in 2017 - BNP Paribas (based on the article)
Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas:
As we see from the image - the XAU/USD weekly price is located between 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the ranging bearish market condition.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.25 14:46
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Durable Goods Orders and 22 pips price movement
2016-02-25 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
EURUSD M5: 22 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.26 10:11
Intra-Day Fundamentals: CNY Swift Global Payments CNY and 72 pips price movement for majors
2016-02-26 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Swift Global Payments]
EURUSD M5: 19 pips price movement by Swift Global Payments CNY news event
USDJPY M5: 33 pips price movement by Swift Global Payments CNY news event
GBPUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by Swift Global Payments CNY news event
USDCHF M5: 9 pips price movement by Swift Global Payments CNY news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.26 10:58
Trading News Events: USD Gross Domestic Product (based on the article)
The preliminary U.S. 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may produce
headwinds for the greenback and spark a near-term a rebound in EUR/USD
should the report highlight a slowing recovery in the world’s largest
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the U.S. approaches ‘full-employment,’ a marked downward
revision in the growth rate may undermine Fed expectations for a
‘consumer-led’ recovery, and the central bank may largely endorse a
wait-and-see approach throughout 2016 in an effort to mitigate the
downside risks surrounding the region.
Nevertheless, the pickup in private-sector consumption may generate a
better-than-expected GDP print as it remains one of the leading drivers
of growth, and signs of a more meaningful recovery may boost the appeal
of the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the Fed to implement
higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: 4Q GDP Slows to Annualized 0.4% or Lower
Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.06 18:38
Monthly price is on breakdown with possible bearish reversal: the price is breaking Ichimoku cloud together with symmetric triangle pattern for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:
Chinkou Span line crossed the price to below for the good breakdown, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the ranging market condition to be started in for the near future.
If monthly price will break 71.28
support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement
from the primary bullish to the primary bearish condition will be
started.If monthly price will break 83.36
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuingIf not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish breakdown
Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.28 11:10
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 28.02 - 06.03: the secondary correction with the possible bearish reversal
Daily price is on primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction to be started in the middle of February this year: the price broke key support level for the local downtrend and stopped near Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.
Span line is located above the price to be ready to crossed to from above for the good possible breakdown, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price
movement as the secondary correction with possible bearish reversal.
If D1 price will break 1.0777
support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.If D1 price will break 1.1192
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : correction