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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 5

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 06.03 - 13.03: secondary rally to possible breakout with bullish reversal

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition with the secondary rally which was started in the end of the February this year. Chinkou Span line is very near to be crossed with the price from below to above for the possible breakout, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary secondary rally with the possible bullish reversal in the near future.

If D1 price will break 1.3835 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.4695 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.4695 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish rally to the bullish reversal
ResistanceSupport
1.46671.3835
1.4695N/A


SUMMARY : bear market rally

TREND : bearish  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.07 08:07

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: Ranging bearish

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4247 resistance and 1.3835 support levels.

  • "We highlighted last Thursday (when spot was at 1.4085) that the corrective rebound could extend to 1.4230. This level was exceeded with a high of 1.4249 on Friday. With no sign of weakness just yet, the current recovery could extend further to 1.4400 (1.4300 is a strong resistance)."
  • "Only a move back below 1.4050 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. Overall, the current movement is reminiscent of the price action in early February where the corrective rebound extended to 1.4672 before topping out."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4247 resistance level on close D1 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42471.3835
1.4667N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4247 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

hmm it may be possible today will break 1.42 but tomorrow bearish trend will start till 1.35 ???

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.08 10:52

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOE Gov Carney Speaks and 24 pips range price movement

2016-03-08 09:15 GMT | [GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks]

[GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks] = the speech is on United Kingdom's European Union membership before the Parliamentary Committee, in London.

==========

  • "The Bank of England will not tell people how to vote in the EU referendum in June, Governor Mark Carney said Tuesday."
  • "The bank will conduct analysis but it should not be considered as recommendations for or against Brexit, he told Treasury Committee."
  • "It will be important for the BoE to retain the flexibility and overall supervisory coherence necessary to meet its financial stability objectives, Carney wrote in a letter to Andrew Tyrie, chairman of Treasury Select Committee."

==========

GBPUSD M5: 24 pips range price movement by BOE Gov Carney Speaks news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.09 11:04

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing Production and 18 pips range price movement

2016-03-09 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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"Total production is estimated to have increased by 0.3% between December 2015 and January 2016. There were increases in 3 of the 4 main sectors, with manufacturing (the largest component of production), having the largest positive contribution, increasing by 0.7%."


==========

GBPUSD M5: 18 pips range price movement by UK Manufacturing Production news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.11 09:21

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: secondary rally to be started by 1.43 resistance level to be broken

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4316 resistance and 1.3835 support levels.

  • "As indicated yesterday, as long as 1.4050 is intact, another attempt higher to test the major 1.4400 resistance cannot be ruled out just yet. GBP dipped to a low of 1.4120 yesterday and the up-move from the low appears to be on track for a move to 1.4400."
  • "Only a move back below 1.4050 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. Overall, the current movement is reminiscent of the price action in early February where the corrective rebound extended to 1.4672 before topping out."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary rally to be started.  

  • If the price will break 1.4316 resistance level on close D1 bar so the secondary rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.43161.3835
1.4667N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4316 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.13 11:40

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, GBP/USD, USDJPY, and GOLD (based on the article)

US Dollar - "The Dollar has dropped ahead of the important meeting deflating some of the hawkish premium, but there is still considerable bullish interest behind the currency considering it a mild pace would still be a severe contrast to its counterparts. Furthermore, we have seen a shift in how the market responds to further drive to the dovish extreme of the policy spectrum. The BoJ adopted negative rates and saw the markets flip against the traditional ‘dovish move equates to bullish capital market, bearish currency’ equation within 24 hours. The ECB’s stimulus bomb this past week broke the function instantly. The market response will likely be a settling of confused speculative interpretations."


GBP/USD - "For the British Pound the big-picture trend remains fairly clear—the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen in 14 out of the past 19 months. The biggest risk remains a British exit (“Brexit”) from the European Union and the uncertainty it represents. Until there is clarity on that front we do not expect a material GBP recovery."


USD/JPY - "The strong JPY year-to-day is likely to have companies expanding more slowly as their goods have become more expensive by nearly 5% on a global scale to where they were at the end of 2015, and at the same time, demand from Asian countries may continue to drop on tightened lending conditions."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold looks to be marking a weekly doji after stretching into a fresh yearly high of 1284. Heading into the FOMC next week, the long-side is vulnerable for a pullback but the broader trade remains constructive while above slope support extending off the July low. Key near-term topside resistance objectives stand at the 2015 high-week close at 1239 backed by the 2014 high-week reversal close at 1334. A break sub-1151/55 would be needed to reassert the broader short-trend in bullion."



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.16 07:34

Trading News Events: U.K. Claimant Count Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Even though the EU referendum clouds the economic outlook for the U.K., a further improvement in labor-market dynamics may spur a split within the Bank of England (BoE) as central bank officials remain upbeat on the economy and see a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, waning confidence along with the slowdown in service-based activity may drag on employment, and a dismal labor report may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as it market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Exceed Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily




  • Long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the pair largely retains the downward trend from August, but there appears to be a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the oscillator carves a higher-low in February and threatens the bearish formation carried over from the previous year.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.16 10:54

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Jobless Claims and 30 pips range price movement

2016-03-16 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

  • past data is -28.4K
  • forecast data is -8.8K
  • actual data is -18.0K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

==========

GBPUSD M5: 30 pips range price movement by UK Jobless Claims news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.17 10:05

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: ranging bullish - 1.4311 resistance to be broken for the strong bullish trend to be continuing

M15 price is located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4311 resistance and S1 Yearly Pivot level at 1.4222.

  • "GBP dropped to a low of 1.4053 but the subsequent sharp rally certainly does not bode well for our bearish view.
  • However, only a move above 1.4305 would indicate that our view is wrong."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4311 resistance level on close bar so the strong bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.4222 support on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.43111.4235
N/A1.4222



  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4222 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4311 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish

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