Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 156

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.08 19:18

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD

EUR/USD: bullish ranging along bearish reversal levels. Intra-day price for this pair was crossed Ichimoku cloud to above for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish condition: price is ranging along Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart; Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging market condition; and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the bullish in the near future.


  • if the price breaks 1.1067 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1.0879 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.1067
1.0939
N/A
1.0879

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.08 21:09

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD: possible correction. Intra-day H4 price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing 1,259.39 support level to below for the secondary correction to be started. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the secondary correction to be started, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the local downtrend to be started within the primary bullish condition.


  • if the price breaks 1,279.71 resistance so the bullish condition will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1,259.39 support level so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1,224.68 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
1,279.711,259.39
N/A
1,224.68

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  
Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.09 11:04

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing Production and 18 pips range price movement

2016-03-09 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

==========

"Total production is estimated to have increased by 0.3% between December 2015 and January 2016. There were increases in 3 of the 4 main sectors, with manufacturing (the largest component of production), having the largest positive contribution, increasing by 0.7%."


==========

GBPUSD M5: 18 pips range price movement by UK Manufacturing Production news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.09 15:19

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: bearish ranging within 1.09/1.10 levels for direction. Intra-day H4 price is located near and below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 23.6% Fibo resistance level at 1.1003 and 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0914.

  • "The outlook is still viewed as neutral and as mentioned in recent updates, only a strong daily closing above 1.1005/10 would indicate that EUR is ready to move higher."
  • "In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to trade sideways with 1.0900 and 1.1100 acting as key levels."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1003 resistance level on close H4 bar so the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bearish to the bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0914 support to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10031.0941
1.10571.0914


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0914 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1003 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.10 06:01

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and 18 pips range price movement

2016-03-10 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

Consumer prices in China were up 2.3 percent on year in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

==========

USDJPY M5: 18 pips range price movement by China CPI news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.10 12:15

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Trade Balance and 13 pips range price movement

2016-03-10 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

"The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 13.6 billion euros in January 2016. In January 2015, the surplus amounted to +15.9 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 18.9 billion euros in January 2016."

==========

EURUSD M5: 13 pips range price movement by German Trade Balance news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.10 14:20

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate and 131 pips price movement

2016-03-10 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

"At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

(1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 16 March 2016.

(2) The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 16 March 2016.

(3) The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.40%, with effect from 16 March 2016."

==========

EURUSD M5: 131 pips price movement by European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate news event :



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.11 07:51

EUR/USD: End Of Week Technicals - Bullish Reversal

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area yesterday for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition:

  • The price crossed 100-day SMA/200-day SMA and was bounced from 1.1217 resistance level.
  • 100 SMA is below 200 SMA for the ranging condition to be started.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend in the near future.

If the price breaks Fibo support level at 1.0821 so the daily bearish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1.1217 to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.1217 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0821 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish


Resistance
 Support
1.12171.0821
1.12171.0821

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.11 08:16

GOLD (XAU/USD): End Of Week Technicals - Ranging Bullish

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area for the bullish market condition with the ranging within key support/resistance levels:

  • The price is ranging within Fibo resistance level at 1,283.35 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 1,227.30.
  • Key support level for the bearish reversal is 61.8% Fibo support level at 1,137.00.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 23.6% Fibo support level at 1,227.30 so the secondary correction will be started.
If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1,283.35 to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1,283.35 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,227.30 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish


Resistance
 Support
1,283.351,227.30
N/A1,137.00

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging