Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 159

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: intra-day breakout. This pair is on bullish intra-day breakout for H4 timeframe: price broke key resistance levels on the way to uptrend and it was bounced from 1.1342 resistance level. Chinkou Span line is located to be above the price indicating the intra-day breakout to be continuing. If the price breaks 1.1342 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be re-started, otherwise - ranging bullish.


  • if the price breaks 1.1342 resistance on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with good breakout possibility and with 1.1376 level as the next bullish target;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel on the ranging bullish market condition.
Resistance
Support
1.1342
1.1241
1.1376
1.0821

GBP/USD: bullish breakout with 1.4481 resistance to be broken for the breakout to be continuing. The intra-day price (H4) for this pair is on very similar situation with EURUSD: intra-day breakout. The price was bounced from 1.4481 level on the way to uptrend. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the breakout to be continuing in the near future.


  • if the price breaks 1.4481 resistance so the bullish intra-day breakout will be continuing with 1.4577 level as the next bullish target;
  • if not so the price will be moved on the ranging bullish within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.4481
1.4115
1.4577
N/A

USD/JPY: ranging bearish. Intra-day price (H4) is located to be below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition: the price is started to be ranging within 110.66 support and 112.22 resistance levels. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating for the bearish trend to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the ranging bearish condition in the near future.


  • if the price breaks 110.66 support level so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing without ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be forming;
  • if not so the price will be moved on the ranging bearish condition within the levels.
Resistance
Support
112.22110.97
113.81110.66
Sergey Golubev
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Crude Oil Long-Term Technical Analysis: ranging within key bearish levels

The price is located below 100 period SMA (100-SMA) and 200 period SMA (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 63.29 resistance level located on 100-SMA and near the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bullish area of the chart, and
  • 27.06 support level located far below 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bearish area.


RSI indicator is estimating the secondary bear market rally to be started.

  • if the price will break 63.29 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
  • if price will break 27.06 support so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • if not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
54.0027.06
63.29N/A
The Long-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 63.29 resistance level for possible buy trade.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.18 06:05

Fundamentals Analysis: UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (adapted from the article)

2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.18 15:19

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UoM Consumer Sentiment and 11 pips range price movement

2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

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Preliminary Results for March 2016

Mar Feb Mar M-M Y-Y

2016 2016 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 90.0 91.7 93.0 -1.9% -3.2%
Current Economic Conditions 105.6 106.8 105.0 -1.1% +0.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations 80.0 81.9 85.3 -2.3% -6.2%
Next data release: April 01, 2016 for Final March data at 10am ET


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EURUSD M5: 11 pips range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news event :



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.18 19:48

GOLD (XAU/USD): End Of Week Technicals - ranging within bullish resistance level and the bearish reversal support level

Daily price is above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area for the bullish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1283.35 resistance located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area in the primary bullish of the chart, and
  • 1144.75 support level located near 100-day SMA/200-day SMA on the border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish trend.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 1144.75 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 1283.35 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1283.35 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1144.75 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish


Resistance
 Support
1283.351225.60
N/A1144.75

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.21 08:14

GOLD (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis 2016, 20.03 - 27.03: ranging to correction

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:

  • 1283.35 key resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1225.60 key support level located above Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bullish and the secondary correction, and
  • 1190.80 key support level located near Senkou Span line on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.

Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below on open daily bar for the possible daily breakdown to be started, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction in the nexr future, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the ranging trend to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1225.60 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1190.80 support level on close bar from above to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish condition with the secondary ranging.
If D1 price will break 1283.35 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1283.35 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1225.60 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1283.351225.60
N/A
1190.80



SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.22 08:38

Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The BoE looks poised to retain its current policy ahead of the U.K. Referendum in June as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remains unanimous in keeping the benchmark interest rate at the record-low, but signs of stronger price growth may encourage Governor Mark Carney to adopt a more hawkish tone over the coming months as the central bank sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with fears surrounding the U.K. Referendum may drag on inflation, and signs of easing price growth may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Meet/Beat Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Report Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily


  • GBP/USD may largely preserve the downward trend carried over from 2015 as the BoE lags behind its U.S. counterpart, but the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may highlight an inverse head-and-shoulders formation in the exchange rate as Governor Carney continues to argue that the next move will be to normalize monetary policy.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.22 10:57

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 42 pips price movement

2016-03-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in the year to February 2016, unchanged from January 2016.
  • This maintains the position seen over the last few months of a rate which is a little above zero.
  • The contributions to change in the CPI rate from the detailed categories were relatively small compared with most months.
  • The largest downward contribution came from the transport sector, from price changes for items such as road passenger transport, second-hand cars and bicycles.
  • Rising food prices, particularly for vegetables, offset this.
  • CPIH (not a National Statistic) grew by 0.6% in the year to February 2016, unchanged from January 2016."

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GBPUSD M5: 42 pips price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event :



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.22 17:57

Quick Technical Overview - Sell GBP: intra-day price is breaking 1.42 support for the bearish reversal

GBP/USD: possible intra-day bearish reversal. H4 price broke Ichimoku cloud and it was stopped by 1.4203 key bearish support level. if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal will be started up to 1.4052 bearish target. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish condition to be started, and Chinkou Span line came to be very close to the price for the good possible breakdown in the near future for example.


There are the following news events which will be affected on GBP/USD price movement for the week:

  • 2016-03-23 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]
  • 2016-03-24 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
  • 2016-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]


Resistance
Support
1.44301.4203
1.4514
1.4052

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.23 07:23

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: ranging bearish within 1.40/1.45 area

Daily price is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.4052 support level and 1.4535 resistance level.

  • "The break below the 1.4350 stop-loss resulted in a sharp drop to a low of 1.4191. The up-move that started from the low of 1.4053 last week has topped out at 1.4514, much sooner than expected and short of our 1.4570 target. Despite the sharp drop, we are not convinced that the current weakness is a resumption of the bearish trend in GBP.
  • The current movement is viewed as part of a broad sideway consolidation range and further choppy can be expected in the next couple of weeks, likely holding between 1.4050 and 1.4400 (bias is for a probe lower towards 1.4050)."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4535 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with the secondary ranging and 1.5160 level as the nexr bullish reversal target.
  • If price will break 1.4052 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.45351.4052
1.51601.3835


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4052 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4535 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish