Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 155

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 16:17

Gold Rallies Despite Stronger-Than-Expected U.S. Jobs Data (based on the article)


  • "Gold prices are moderately higher in morning dealings Friday, despite a just-released U.S. employment report that was stronger than market expectations. “You just can’t keep a good market down,” quipped one gold market watcher. Gold prices pushed to a 13-month high above $1,275.00 in overnight dealings. April Comex gold was last up $10.70 at $1,269.00 an ounce. May Comex silver was last up $0.349 at $15.495 an ounce."
  • "The February U.S. employment report from the Labor Department showed the key non-farm payrolls component of the jobs report at up 242,000. The number was expected to show a rise of around 200,000. This report falls into the camp of the monetary policy hawks who favor the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again, and sooner rather than later. The jobs report did give the U.S. dollar index a modest lift."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.05 19:11

Weekly Fundamentals (adapted from the article)

GBPUSD - "The broader outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the BoE lags behind its U.S. counterpart, and the pair may continue to carve a long-term series of lower highs & lows as the threat of an EU exit dampens the fundamental outlook for the U.K".


USDJPY - "The Bank of Japan will look at market developments with great interest at its March 15 meeting, and much would need to change between now and then to make fresh BoJ policy action likely. It is nonetheless clear that much could change between now and then. Whether or not the Yen resumes its uptrend may very well depend on market reactions to the ECB and other key events in the week ahead."


AUDUSD - "Beijing pre-announced a lower GDP growth target, setting a range of 6.5 to 7 percent as the objective. Premier Li Keqiang likewise offered broad outlines of a broad range of initiatives. The most directly significant items for Australia seem to be efforts to cut over-capacity in coal and steel, both of which are central to the country’s China-oriented mining industry. Details on this and a host of other policy changes will be closely watched for their knock-on effects on Australian growth and, by extension, on RBA policy trends."


NZDUSD - "NZ 10yr Government Yields have declined from 3.617% in mid-December toward 2.901 this week. Given the data, it will be worth watching a move higher in yields that could signal a move of risk-on that may continue to lift up the NZD alongside an increasingly confident and stable RBNZ."


XAUUSD - "The simple removal of a bit of that emergency policy created risk aversion around the world that brought on questions of a globalized-coordinated recession. Sure, stock prices are still elevated, but how confident should one feel being invested in equities right now? Bond yields are pitifully low after six years of ZIRP, and any duration taken on will get absolutely crushed in a rising rate environment. And most Central Banks are actively looking to deflect capital flows. So where is an investor to go."


All the charts were made by using Metatrader 5 with free indicators from CodeBase.


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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.06 14:06

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 06.03 - 13.03: bullish trend near the reversal area to be started

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is located above Ichimoku cloud within the following key reversal support/resistance lines:

  • 1.1067 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0788 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

Chinkou Span line is near and above the price for the bullish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary ranging condition.

If D1 price will break 1.0788 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing with secondary ranging up to 1.0520 level as the next bearish target.
If D1 price will break 1.1067 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1067 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0788 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.10671.0788
1.1067
1.0788


SUMMARY : bullish


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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.06 14:45

GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 06.03 - 13.03: secondary rally to possible breakout with bullish reversal

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition with the secondary rally which was started in the end of the February this year. Chinkou Span line is very near to be crossed with the price from below to above for the possible breakout, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary secondary rally with the possible bullish reversal in the near future.

If D1 price will break 1.3835 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.4695 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.4695 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish rally to the bullish reversal
ResistanceSupport
1.46671.3835
1.4695N/A


SUMMARY : bear market rally

TREND : bearish  

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.06 15:31

GOLD Weekly Technicals - ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA for reversal

Weekly price is on primary bearish market condition with the ranging within 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA area:

  • Bear market rally was started in the beginning of the January this year - price broke 100 period SMA together with key resistance levels.
  • Fibo resistance level at 1279.71 was tested the rice to above for the market rally to be continuing.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was formed the price to be broken to above for the local uptrend as the bear market rally.

If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1279.71 so we may see the local uptrend as the secondary market rally within the primary bearish market condition.
If the price breaks Fibo support level at 1061.28 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1279.71 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1061.28 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish


ResistanceSupport
1279.711163.50
N/A1061.28

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : bear market rally  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.07 07:57

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Ranging on reversal

Daily price is located within 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.

  • "We are sticking to view wherein only a daily closing above 1.1005/10 would shift the current neutral EUR outlook to bullish (closing was 1.1000 last Friday)."
  • "That said, the undertone for this pair is positive and the odds for a sustained up-move in the coming days are rather high especially if we continue to hold above 1.0900."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1067 resistance level on close D1 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0823 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10671.0823
N/A1.0777


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0823 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1067 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.07 08:07

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: Ranging bearish

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4247 resistance and 1.3835 support levels.

  • "We highlighted last Thursday (when spot was at 1.4085) that the corrective rebound could extend to 1.4230. This level was exceeded with a high of 1.4249 on Friday. With no sign of weakness just yet, the current recovery could extend further to 1.4400 (1.4300 is a strong resistance)."
  • "Only a move back below 1.4050 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. Overall, the current movement is reminiscent of the price action in early February where the corrective rebound extended to 1.4672 before topping out."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4247 resistance level on close D1 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42471.3835
1.4667N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4247 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.07 08:07

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: Ranging bearish

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4247 resistance and 1.3835 support levels.

  • "We highlighted last Thursday (when spot was at 1.4085) that the corrective rebound could extend to 1.4230. This level was exceeded with a high of 1.4249 on Friday. With no sign of weakness just yet, the current recovery could extend further to 1.4400 (1.4300 is a strong resistance)."
  • "Only a move back below 1.4050 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. Overall, the current movement is reminiscent of the price action in early February where the corrective rebound extended to 1.4672 before topping out."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4247 resistance level on close D1 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42471.3835
1.4667N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4247 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.08 08:18

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 11 pips range price movement

2016-03-08 02:42 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 63.29B
  • forecast data is 51.00B
  • actual data is 32.59B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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EURUSD M5: 11 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.08 10:52

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOE Gov Carney Speaks and 24 pips range price movement

2016-03-08 09:15 GMT | [GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks]

[GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks] = the speech is on United Kingdom's European Union membership before the Parliamentary Committee, in London.

==========

  • "The Bank of England will not tell people how to vote in the EU referendum in June, Governor Mark Carney said Tuesday."
  • "The bank will conduct analysis but it should not be considered as recommendations for or against Brexit, he told Treasury Committee."
  • "It will be important for the BoE to retain the flexibility and overall supervisory coherence necessary to meet its financial stability objectives, Carney wrote in a letter to Andrew Tyrie, chairman of Treasury Select Committee."

==========

GBPUSD M5: 24 pips range price movement by BOE Gov Carney Speaks news event :