Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 153

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.28 11:53

GOLD (XAU/USD) Long-Term Technical Analysis: watch for psy resistance level to be broken for bullish reversal

Weekly price is located between 100 period SMA (100-SMA) and 200 period SMA (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition: price is on secondary bear market rally since the middle of January this year with 100-SMA to be broken to above for the bearish ranging condition to be started on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price is ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1,300.00 psy resistance level located near and below 200-SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish market condition on the chart, and
  • 1,046.27 support level located far below 100-SMA/200-SMA area in the primary bearish trend on the chart.


RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging market condition.
  • If the price will break 1,300.00 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
  • If price will break 1,046.27 support so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
1,300.001,046.27
1,400.00N/A
The Long-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 1,300.00 resistance level for possible buy trade.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.29 09:45

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Turn to Bearish

Daily price was moved to be below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0911 support level with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for direction.

  • "The neutral phase that has been in place for about 2 weeks ended last Friday. As highlighted in recent updates, a daily closing below the key 1.0990 would indicate the start of a sustained down-move in EUR."
  • "That said, downward momentum is not very strong at this stage and we have a modest target of 1.0810. In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move above 1.1030."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1178 resistance level on close D1 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0911 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11781.0911
1.13761.0788


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0911 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1178 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.29 11:23

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone CPI Flash Estimate and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-29 10:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - CPI Flash Estimate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

"Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.2% in February 2016, down from 0.3% in January, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union."

==========

EURUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by Euro-Zone CPI Flash Estimate news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.29 16:28

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Pending Home Sales and 23 pips price movement

2016-02-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Pending Home Sales] = Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.

==========

"The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.5 percent to 106.0 in January from an upwardly revised 108.7 in December but is still 1.4 percent above January 2015 (104.5). Although the index has increased year-over-year for 17 consecutive months, last month’s annual gain was the second smallest (September 2014 at 1.2 percent) during the timeframe."

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says a myriad of reasons likely contributed to January contract signings subsiding in most of the country. "While January’s blizzard possibly caused some of the pullback in the Northeast, the recent acceleration in home prices and minimal inventory throughout the country appears to be the primary obstacle holding back would-be buyers,” he said. “Additionally, some buyers could be waiting for a hike in listings come springtime."

==========

EURUSD M5: 23 pips price movement by Pending Home Sales news event :



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Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

NZD/USD: bearish reversal. This pair just reversed to the bearish condition by today's daily bar opened below 200-day SMA. The price is testing 50.0% Fibo support level at 0.6561 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • if the price breaks 23.6% Fibo resistance level at 0.6673 to above on daily close bar so the price will be reversed back to the bullish market condition;
  • if the price breaks 50.0% Fibo support level at 0.6561 on close daily bar to below so the primary bearish trendwill be continuing;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
0.66730.6561
0.6773
0.6509

GBP/USD: bearish breakdown. The price was on bearish breakdown with key support resistance levels together with descending triangle patterns to be broken to below. Price was bounced from Fibo support level at 1.3835 and started to be ranging within bearish s/r levels.


  • if the price breaks 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.4249 so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started;
  • if the price breaks Fibo support level at 1.3835 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be forming;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42491.3835
1.4352
N/A

AUD/USD: ranging-to-bearish reversal. Daily price broke 100-day SMA to below to be reversed from the ranging bearish within 200-day SMA/100-day SMA area to the primary bearish area of the chart. RSI indicator is estimating the ranging market condition to be continuing, and the nearest support level for the price on the way to the bearish trend is 38.2% Fibo level at 0.7095. The key reversal bullish level for the price for the bullish reversal to be started is Fibo resistance at 0.7258, and if the price breaks this level from below to above so the bullish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging condition.


  • if the price breaks Fibo resistance at 0.7258 on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 38.2% Fibo level at 0.7095 on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.
Resistance
Support
0.72580.7095
N/A0.7044
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 07:59

Technical Intra-Day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish to 1.0800 psy target

Intra-day price was moved to be below 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0858 support level for the ranging bearish condition to be started.

  • "We just turned bearish EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. As mentioned, we have a modest target of 1.0810 with a stop-loss at 1.1030 even though 1.0965 is already a strong resistance."
  • "Overall, only a move back above 1.0935 would indicate that a temporary low is in place."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1149 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0858 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0800 psy level as the target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11491.0858
N/A1.0800


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0858 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1149 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 07:59

Technical Intra-Day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish to 1.0800 psy target

Intra-day price was moved to be below 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0858 support level for the ranging bearish condition to be started.

  • "We just turned bearish EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. As mentioned, we have a modest target of 1.0810 with a stop-loss at 1.1030 even though 1.0965 is already a strong resistance."
  • "Overall, only a move back above 1.0935 would indicate that a temporary low is in place."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1149 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0858 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0800 psy level as the target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11491.0858
N/A1.0800


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0858 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1149 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook - possible breakout with the daily bullish reversal and 36.94 level as the bullish target to re-enter

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition with the local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally: the price is breaking Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the ranging bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart) for the bullish reversal to be started. The symmetric triangle pattern was crossed to above for the possible breakout, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing.


Resistance
Support
36.9432.33
38.9329.22
  • if weekly price breaks 36.94 resistance so the reversal of the daily price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
  • if weekly price breaks 32.33 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing without ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be forming;
  • if not so the price will be moved inside Ichimoku cloud within the level.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 16:00

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 74 pips price movement

2016-03-01 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

  • past data is 0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

  • "Real gross domestic product grew 0.2% in December, after rising 0.3% in November. Manufacturing and wholesale trade increased in December, while retail trade, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction as well as utilities posted notable declines."
  • "The value added of service industries rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter, while that of goods-producing industries declined 0.9%."

==========

USDCAD M5: 74 pips price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.01 16:21

Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: 1,890 is important (adapted from the article)

H1 price is located to be above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the bullish area of the chart: the secondary correction was started by the price for trying to break 1,928 support level to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1,962 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • If price will break 1,890 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1,9621,928
N/A
1,890


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,890 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1,962 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : correction

TREND : primary bullish