Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 157

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.11 09:21

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: secondary rally to be started by 1.43 resistance level to be broken

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4316 resistance and 1.3835 support levels.

  • "As indicated yesterday, as long as 1.4050 is intact, another attempt higher to test the major 1.4400 resistance cannot be ruled out just yet. GBP dipped to a low of 1.4120 yesterday and the up-move from the low appears to be on track for a move to 1.4400."
  • "Only a move back below 1.4050 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. Overall, the current movement is reminiscent of the price action in early February where the corrective rebound extended to 1.4672 before topping out."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary rally to be started.  

  • If the price will break 1.4316 resistance level on close D1 bar so the secondary rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.43161.3835
1.4667N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4316 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

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USD/CAD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bear market rally near reversal area

M15 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition: price is testing 1.3260 resistance level to above for the secon dary rally to be started.

  • If the price will break 1.3311 resistance level on close M15 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3227 support on close M15 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.33111.3227
N/A
N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3227 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.3311 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: rally

SUMMARY : bear market rally

TREND : bearish on reversal
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.11 14:41

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Employment Change and 37 pips range price movement

2016-03-11 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

"Employment was virtually unchanged in February (-2,300 or 0.0%) as gains in part-time work were offset by losses in full time. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points for the third consecutive month, reaching 7.3% for the first time since March 2013."

==========

USDCAD M5: 37 pips range price movement by CAD Employment Change news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.13 11:40

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, GBP/USD, USDJPY, and GOLD (based on the article)

US Dollar - "The Dollar has dropped ahead of the important meeting deflating some of the hawkish premium, but there is still considerable bullish interest behind the currency considering it a mild pace would still be a severe contrast to its counterparts. Furthermore, we have seen a shift in how the market responds to further drive to the dovish extreme of the policy spectrum. The BoJ adopted negative rates and saw the markets flip against the traditional ‘dovish move equates to bullish capital market, bearish currency’ equation within 24 hours. The ECB’s stimulus bomb this past week broke the function instantly. The market response will likely be a settling of confused speculative interpretations."


GBP/USD - "For the British Pound the big-picture trend remains fairly clear—the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen in 14 out of the past 19 months. The biggest risk remains a British exit (“Brexit”) from the European Union and the uncertainty it represents. Until there is clarity on that front we do not expect a material GBP recovery."


USD/JPY - "The strong JPY year-to-day is likely to have companies expanding more slowly as their goods have become more expensive by nearly 5% on a global scale to where they were at the end of 2015, and at the same time, demand from Asian countries may continue to drop on tightened lending conditions."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold looks to be marking a weekly doji after stretching into a fresh yearly high of 1284. Heading into the FOMC next week, the long-side is vulnerable for a pullback but the broader trade remains constructive while above slope support extending off the July low. Key near-term topside resistance objectives stand at the 2015 high-week close at 1239 backed by the 2014 high-week reversal close at 1334. A break sub-1151/55 would be needed to reassert the broader short-trend in bullion."



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.14 08:20

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Machine Orders and 19 pips range price movement

2016-03-13 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Core Machinery Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Core Machinery Orders] = Change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities.

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USDJPY M5: 19 pips range price movement by Japan Machine Orders news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.14 10:44

EUR/USD: We maintains a long EUR/USD from 1.1140 targeting a move to 1.1370, with a stop at 1.1058 - Credit Suisse (based on the article)


  • "We look for further strength towards gap and 78.6% retracement resistance spanning from 1.1230 to 1.1256/59."
  • "Above here can then target the February high at 1.1376 where we would expect fresh selling to show. Immediate support moves towards 1.1136, with the top of the base at 1.1068/58 ideally holding."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.14 16:31

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone Industrial Production and 14 pips price movement

2016-03-14 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

"In January 2016 compared with December 2015, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 2.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In December 2015 industrial production fell by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6 in the EU28."

==========

EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by Euro-Zone Industrial Production news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.15 07:36

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: bounced from 1.1217 for intra-day correction

H4 price is located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction: the price was bounced from 1.1217 resistance level to start to be ranging above 200 SMA bullish area.

  • "While we turned bullish EUR, the upside potential is likely limited to 1.1245. The current movement is a short-term consolidation and this should lead to an eventual move higher in the next few days."

RSI indicator is estimating the bullish ranging to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1217 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1077 support on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition may be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12171.1077
N/AN/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1077 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1217 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.15 13:54

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Advance Retail Sales and 14 pips range price movement

2016-03-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

EURUSD M5: 14 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.16 07:34

Trading News Events: U.K. Claimant Count Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Even though the EU referendum clouds the economic outlook for the U.K., a further improvement in labor-market dynamics may spur a split within the Bank of England (BoE) as central bank officials remain upbeat on the economy and see a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, waning confidence along with the slowdown in service-based activity may drag on employment, and a dismal labor report may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as it market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Exceed Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily




  • Long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the pair largely retains the downward trend from August, but there appears to be a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the oscillator carves a higher-low in February and threatens the bearish formation carried over from the previous year.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot