Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 219

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.10 09:50

NZD/USD - bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels; 0.7343 and 0.7102 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price broke 200 period SMA to above on the good breakout movement to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is on ranging within 0.7343/0.7101 support/resistance levelfor the bullish trend to be continuing or to the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar is struggling to build downside momentum after seeming breaking the bounds of the upswing launched from mid-May lows. Still, overall positioning suggests that the choppy bearish trend defining price action since early September 2016 may be resuming."
  • "Near-term support is in the 0.7259-63 area (14.6% Fibonacci expansion, former resistance). A break below that on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 0.7208-15 zone (chart inflection point, 23.6% level). Alternatively, a push above the June 30 high at 0.7347 exposes a double top at 0.7382."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.14 09:51

USD/JPY - weekly bullish reversal; 114.17 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price was bounced from 108.81 support level to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition: the price broke Ichimoku cloud together with 'reversal' Senkou Span lines to above with ascending triangle pattern to be testing together with 114.17 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Next nearest bullish targets are 115.50 and 118.65. Bullish breakout target for the long-term bullish trend to be established is 121.69.

Most likely scenario: price crosses 114.17 level to above for the ranging bullish to be started. 


  • "USD/JPY had just forced an upside trendline break and the previous significant high – May 10’s 114.37 – was within striking distance. The Dollar got there alright, breaking in to the 114.40s on July 11, but victory was partial. It only managed to top that summit intraday, still hasn’t managed a higher daily close and has now retreated below. That channel neatly captures all the trading action from June 14’s low to the present day, but it may also offer something of a false positive. After all, the lower bound consists of precisely one intraday low, only about 48 hours old at the time of writing. The amount of reassurance this chart offers bulls must surely be limited."
  • "The trendline below on the other hand passes through three intraday closing levels and two intraday lows. From that point of view, it looks more significant and, as you can see, USD/JPY broke below it this week. The pair is currently very close to support around 113.11. That was July 6’s close and a region around which which had coalesced around for the four previous days. There would also appear to be support around the 111.96 mark."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.18 21:23

Dollar Index - long term breakdown to correction (based on the article)

The price on monthly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend by breaking monthly support level at 95.22 to below together with descending triangle pattern and with the bearish reversal support level at 91.87 as the next monthly target.

Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price to below for the breakdown to be continuing.


  • "From July 2014 to early 2017, the DXY rose ~30% in anticipation of the great divide in monetary policy. However, we now see that economic strength and data surprises are not ‘Made in the USA,' but rather in other economies like the Eurozone, Canada, and China. The lack of US growth could mean that the Fed will no longer be the leading central bank in terms of normalization, but possible honing a mea culpa of normalizing too much too soon."
  • "When looking at the chart, you can see that the Dollar is traveling comfortable in a bearish channel and is working to test an internal Trendline drawn from the 2012 peak and the 2016 low. A break below the internal Trendline on a weekly basis would open up the increasing probability of a move to the 38.2% retracement (labeled long-term support) that aligns with the 2016 low at 92.13. Only a daily close above 95.50 would neutralize the current bearish positioning. However, as the blows to hope keep coming for US inflation (despite base metals rallying), I won’t hold my breath in anticipation that the weak USD finds life."


 

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Simple Ichimoku System - rules for the systems

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.25 07:32

Ichimoku alert indicator with arrows (attached, for MT5): the theory of the signals and how to use 

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Explanation of the settings.

1. Ichimoku settings. As I said - this 9/26/52 is for timeframe started with H1 for example, for lower timeframe - I am suggesting to use 72/144/288

  • Tenkan = 9; // Tenkan-sen
  • Kijun = 26; // Kijun-sen
  • Senkou = 52; // Senkou Span B

2. Arrows on the chart

SignalMode = 4; // Signal Mode: 0-off, 1-Tenkan/Kijun, 2-Chinkou/Cloud, 3-Chinkou/Price, 4-all together

How to know which arrows for which signal? Move mouse on the arrow and you will see the text with description concerning what this arrow is about.

3. Alerts (on close bar)

AlertMode = 4; // Alert Mode: 0-off, 1-Tenkan/Kijun, 2-Chinkou/Cloud, 3-Chinkou/Price, 4-all together

I tested some of those alerts and it works.

4. WarningMode = 1; // Warning Mode: 0-off,1-on

This is alerts on open bar as a warning about 'crossing will be soon'.

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  1. Tenkan Sen - moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 9 trading days
  2. Kijun Sen - moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 26 trading days.
  3. Senkou Span A - the average of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, plotted 26 days ahead. (Tenkan Sen + Kijun Sen) / 2 plotted 26 days ahead
  4. Senkou Span B - the average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 52 days, plotted 26 days ahead. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 52 trading days plotted 26 days ahead.
  5. Chikou Span - the closing price plotted 26 days behind.

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There are 2 kinds of settings:

  • 9/26/52 as default one and/or
  • 72/144/288

Besides, there are many signals of Ichimoku indicator to open the trades. I know about 6 signals (but it is much more signals in combination with each other):

  • Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross - very weak signal but it is coming as the first one ... but it may be a lot of false signals
  • price crossing Kijun Sen - more strong signal
  • price crossing Sinkou Span A line (Kumo Breakout)
  • price crossing Sinkou Span B line (Kumo Breakout)
  • Senkou Span A crossing the Senkou Span B (trend reversal)
  • Chikou Span crossing historical price - it is most strong signal for Ichimoku but it is lagging on timeframes started with H1, and not lagging for lower timeframes.

The combination of all those 6 signals = Ichimoku indicator.

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Files:
IchimokuAlert_v1.mq5  14 kb
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.27 09:27

EUR/USD - breakout with possible long term bullish reversal; 1.1777 is the key (based on the article)

Monthly price is on bear market rally located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.1777 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started with the secondary ranging way.


  • "EUR/USD captured headlines today as it printed a fresh 2.5 year high on the heels of Yellen cautiously looking at inflation. We have been bullish EUR/USD since May 22 targeting a retest of the 1.16 highs. Now that we have arrived, what’s next? Is this new 30 month high a fresh breakout or a fake out to draw the bulls in?"
  • "The model we are following shows the shorter term trend may be nearing the end of this upward trend. Multiple models are pointing to a sell off towards 1.1250-1.1400. From there, the models begin to diverge."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.02 08:34

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-08-01 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 1.1%
  • forecast data is 0.7%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "The jobless rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday."
  • "Overall employment fell 0.2 on quarter, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.7 percent following the 1.1 percent increase in the three months prior."
  • "In the June 2017 quarter, 3,000 fewer people were unemployed," labor market and households senior manager Diane Ramsay said. "The unemployment rate for women fell to 4.9 percent, with 10,000 fewer women unemployed - the lowest it's been since March 2009."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.08 08:16

NZD/USD - daily correction; 0.7346 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price was bounced from 0.7557 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. For now, the price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below together with 0.7346 support level for the correction to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar broke below trend line support guiding the move higher against its US cousin since mid-May, hinting a significant reversal is in the works. The move lower may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy announcement."
  • "The next layer of significant support comes in at 0.7276, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below that opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.7188. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7384 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% retracement at 0.7450."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.08 17:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

2017-08-06 15:00 GMT | [USD - JOLTS Job Openings]

  • past data is 5.70M
  • forecast data is 5.74M
  • actual data is 6.16M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - JOLTS Job Openings] = Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "The number of job openings increased to 6.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.4 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four  geographic regions."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.11 12:27

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

An uptick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may stoke a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as signs of rising inflation puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2017.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Fed Fund Futures largely price a 50% probability for a move in December, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may stay on course to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017 as central bank officials expect to achieve the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon. In turn, the FOMC may endorse a more aggressive approach at the next interest rate decision on September 20 especially as the FOMC ‘expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon.’ 

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Headline and Core Inflation Picks Up in July

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If the market reaction favors a bullish dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: CPI Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • Need a green, five-minute EUR/USD candle to consider a short dollar trade.
  • Implement the same approach as the bullish dollar position, just in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD Daily


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.15 08:10

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board have noted the continued improvement of global economic conditions, minutes from the bank's August 1 meeting revealed on Tuesday. At the meeting, the central bank decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged at a record low 1.50 percent for the eleventh consecutive meeting."
  • "Taking account of the available information and the need to balance the risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, the board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 


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