Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 216

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.23 15:27

AUD/USD - rally within the bearish; 0.7488 and 0.7610 are the key resistance levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart for the secondary rally to be started by 0.7488 resistance level to be broken to above with 0.7610 bullish reversal level as the next daily bullish target.


  • "The Australian Dollar may be poised to continue higher after breaking the top of a falling channel that had contained gains against its US counterpart for two months. It remains to be seen whether the move will amount to a correction or if prices are laying the foundation for a longer-term advance."
  • "Near-term resistance is now at 0.7554, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close above opening the door for a test of the 0.7609-24 area (chart inflection point, 50% level). Alternatively, a reversal back below 0.7461 (channel top resistance-turned-support) targets the 14.6% Fib at 0.7415."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 08:19

S&P 500 and Dow Jones: traders remain short (based on the article)

S&P 500 daily price was on the secondary correction and it was bounced from 2354 support level to below for 2418 resistance level to be tested. Anyway, the bearish divergence is appear on the daily price, while the ascending triangle pattern was formed for the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. Strategy: stay neutral.


Dow Jones price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following s/r levels:

  • 21070 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, and
  • 20379 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

  • "Our data shows a massive 83% of traders with open positions in the US 500 remain short, while positions on the Dow Jones-tracking ‘Wall Street’ contract stand at 85% short and FTSE 100 at a near-record 90% short."
  • "The major caveat is nonetheless simple: price and sentiment extremes are, by definition, only clear in hindsight. If we look at past incidences of such one-sided positioning it seems clear they precede key turning points: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reversed lower through early March when sentiment hit over 80% short (below 20% long). Of course sentiment remained at least 80% short for over a month as both indices continued onto fresh record highs. It remains impossible to identify the true sentiment extreme, and caution is advised against joining ‘the crowd’ as they sell into equity market gains."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q2'17 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.31 12:11

Crude Oil Medium-Term Technical Analysis: Daily Bearish Reversal; 50.69 support is the key

Daily price is below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) on 200 SMA crossing to below to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the premium bearish market condition. The price is within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 54.64 resistance level located above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 50.69 support level located below100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the daily bearish trend to be started.


  • If the daily price breaks 54.64 resistance level to above on close bar so the price will be reversed back to the primary bullish market condition.
  • If daily price breaks 50.69 support to below on close bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for the strong bearish/bullish direction.
Resistance
 Support
54.6450.69
56.6246.62
The Medium-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 50.69 support level on close daily candle for possible sell trade.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.01 10:39

Brent Crude Oil and WTI - bullish ranging near above Ichimoku cloud; 43.55 for Brent Crude Oil and 42.18 for WTI are the keys (based on the article)

Weekly price for Crude Oil is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is ranging within 58.35 resistance level and 46.62 support level with the descending pattern tpo be formed for the price to be crossed 46.62 and with 43.55 bearish reversal support level.


  • "For the past couple years, crude oil has been chopping around in the $30 to $60 trading range as traders parse conflicting factors such as the persistent oil glut, OPEC production cuts, rebounding U.S. shale oil production, and the vagaries of the U.S. dollar. This phenomenon of low volatility is not isolated to crude oil - it's the same story throughout the global financial markets."
  • "Like WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil is trading in a range between $30 and $60 per barrel, with $40 being another important long-term support level to be mindful of. A decisive breakout from this range is necessary to confirm the next major crude oil trend."

==========

WTI weekly price is near and above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within 55.21 bullish continuation resistance and 43.73 support level. Bearish descending pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for 42.18 bearish reversal support level as a target.


  • "West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been trading in a clear range between $30 and $60 per barrel, with $40/barrel being an important support level as well. WTI crude oil needs to break out of this range (in one direction or another) in a convincing manner in order to signal the start of the next major trend. Until then, expect volatility to continue falling as long as WTI crude is stuck in this range."
  • "The monthly WTI crude oil chart shows the importance of the $40 support level that I've been discussing for a while. Commercial crude oil hedgers or the "smart money" have maintained a short position in crude oil over the past several years, but have recently been paring back as crude fell. It's hard to get excited about a bottom in crude oil until the "smart money" cover most of their short position (get back to neutral)."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

And this is the idea for the coders who want to create the system/EA trading in particular market condition:

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Gold is Reaching at 1270

Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.01 21:04

How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?

well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.

bullish (Bull market) :

bearish (Bear market) :

ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :


flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :

correction :

correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

For example:

  • Trend following EA is trading in Bearish and bullish market condition
  • Bear Market Rally and correction is for counter-trend EAs
  • Ranging condition is for martingale EAs, and
  • flat condition may eb good for the scalping.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

This is the bullish market condition example:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

I just want to say that many trend-following traders (who are using trend following EA) do not like GBPUSD, and many scalpers and martingale guys like this pair.

Why?
You can see the situation with this pair (M15 t8imeframe) within 5 and half hour only to understand about how many market condition for this time:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

Next pair is USDCHF.
Why USDCHF?
Because many newbies like this pair (and many trend following traders too).
This pair is providing the very clear trend:




Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117635
Sergey Golubev  

Next pair is EURGBP.

I think we all knows that many traders are using this pair with scalping and martingale especially on lower timeframes (M1/M5/M15/M30)/
Why?
Because this pair is slowly going with ranging all the time.
Very slowly ranging which is very good for scalping and especially for martingale EAs: