Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 3

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 17:02

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "Gauges that can influence China’s monetary policy are worth to watch as well. China’s Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 1.6% in June from 1.5% in the month prior, though both figures are still distant from the target 3%. With a relatively low inflation, the PBOC is less likely to increase benchmark rates. On the other hand, the regulator is neither likely to cut rates despite of the economic slowdown. In the 2017 China Financial Stability Report released by the PBOC this week, the regulator said that the risk of housing price bubbles remained elevated in some regions and the home loans’ proportion of total new yuan loans was still high. In May, home loans have taken up over 50% of the total loans. Before the ratio drops to a desired level, the PBOC will mostly likely keep monetary policy neutral, which is tighter than last year."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.14 14:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): Retail Sales

2017-07-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From CNBC article :

  • "The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales fell 0.2 percent last month, weighed down by declines in receipts at service stations, clothing stores and supermarkets. Americans also cut back on spending at restaurants and bars, as well as on hobbies."
  • "May's retail sales were revised to show a 0.1 percent dip instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent drop. Retail sales rose 2.8 percent year-on-year in June."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events

Retail Sales news event

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All the charts were made using Metatrader 5 with Brainwashing trading system:

Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.17 11:10

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China GDP and range price movement 

2017-07-17 03:00 GMT | [CNY- GDP]

  • past data is 6.9%
  • forecast data is 6.8%
  • actual data is 6.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY- GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent year-on-year, the same pace of expansion as seen in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. The annual growth was forecast to slow to 6.8 percent."
  • "On a sequential basis, economic growth improved to 1.7 percent from 1.3 percent."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:21

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "At the same time, the risk of trade disputes with major counterparts remains elevated for China. The U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue to take place on July 19th aims to avoid such conflicts and to develop a bilateral economic plan for the coming year. U.S.’s trade deficit with China is one of the issues that Trump administration focuses on. After the Trump-Xi summit in April, the two largest economies reached a 100-day trade deal, which was seen as the first step to resolve disagreements on trade. As China is still in the transition period from export-driven to domestic-consumption-driven, it will have to continue to rely on the global demand for a considerable amount of time. As a result, reaching an agreement yet not compromising too much will be a delicate dance for China to play in the meeting next week."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 12:09

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Chinese Yuan (based on the article)


Chinese Yuan - "A rising Yuan could also help to slow capital outflows from China. The spokeswoman commented on Fed’s monetary policy: Fed has increased interest rates for four times since 2015; however, the support that these hikes bring to the Dollar has been diminishing. She continued to say that amid eased external pressure, the risk of large amounts of capital flowing out of China has been largely reduced. China’s foreign reserves, highly affected by cross-border capital flows, dropped below $3 trillionin January, a psychological-important level, after the Yuan set a record-low against the Dollar in last December."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.28 14:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-07-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.4%
  • forecast data is 2.5%
  • actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised)."
  • "The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the first quarter (revised) (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A)."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.29 08:31

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNY (based on the article)


USD/CNY - "China announced the strategy for the economic work in the second half of 2017, after top leaders met at the Political Bureau meeting of the Communist Part of China on Monday: The country will stick to the goal of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”. In terms of policies, China will continue to implement “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy”. This indicates that the PBOC is neither likely to raise benchmark interest rate nor cut it in the following two quarters."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.08 17:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

2017-08-06 15:00 GMT | [USD - JOLTS Job Openings]

  • past data is 5.70M
  • forecast data is 5.74M
  • actual data is 6.16M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - JOLTS Job Openings] = Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "The number of job openings increased to 6.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.4 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four  geographic regions."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.09 07:44

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-08-09 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 1.4 percent on year in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday."
  • "The bureau also said that producer prices advanced an annual 5.5 percent, missing forecasts for 5.6 percent which also would have been unchanged."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNY (based on the article)


USD/CNY - "Chinese equities have already taken the hit, with Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component dropping -1.64% and -0.67% respectively on a weekly basis; Hong Kong stocks lost more, by -2.46% over the same of span of time. These shares could sink further if Washington and Pyongyang continue to exchange belligerent statements next week."


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