Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.18 21:23

Dollar Index - long term breakdown to correction (based on the article)

The price on monthly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend by breaking monthly support level at 95.22 to below together with descending triangle pattern and with the bearish reversal support level at 91.87 as the next monthly target.

Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price to below for the breakdown to be continuing.


  • "From July 2014 to early 2017, the DXY rose ~30% in anticipation of the great divide in monetary policy. However, we now see that economic strength and data surprises are not ‘Made in the USA,' but rather in other economies like the Eurozone, Canada, and China. The lack of US growth could mean that the Fed will no longer be the leading central bank in terms of normalization, but possible honing a mea culpa of normalizing too much too soon."
  • "When looking at the chart, you can see that the Dollar is traveling comfortable in a bearish channel and is working to test an internal Trendline drawn from the 2012 peak and the 2016 low. A break below the internal Trendline on a weekly basis would open up the increasing probability of a move to the 38.2% retracement (labeled long-term support) that aligns with the 2016 low at 92.13. Only a daily close above 95.50 would neutralize the current bearish positioning. However, as the blows to hope keep coming for US inflation (despite base metals rallying), I won’t hold my breath in anticipation that the weak USD finds life."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.19 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Residential Building Permits

2017-07-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.17M
  • forecast data is 1.20M
  • actual data is 1.25M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From economiccalendar article :

  • "US building permits increased 7.4% for June to an annualised rate of 1.254mn from 1.17mn in May. This was above consensus forecasts of a figure close to 1.20mn to give an annual increase of 5.1%."
  • "Housing starts rose 8.3% on the month to an annual rate of 1.215mn from 1.12mn in May. This was also above market expectations of 1.16mn with an annual gain of 2.1%."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 15:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Dollar Index and Bitcoin/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-07-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report :

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 27.6 in June to 19.5 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, but July’s reading is the lowest since November. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in July, down from 42 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 16 points, while the new orders index fell 24 points. Nearly 31 percent of the respondents reported a rise in new orders this month, down from 45 percent in June. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the ninth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders."
  • "Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 5 points. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 17 percent, while 6 percent reported a decrease. The average workweek index has been positive for nine consecutive months but decreased 17 points."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 09:17

Dollar Index - daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is on promary bearish breakdown by the descending triangle pattern to be broken to below together with 93.88 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "2017 is a great year for risk as it seems equity traders see no need for a sell button, but the same can’t be said for the USD. Developed market FX has been having a field day with USD over the session and today’s drop brings the total loss for 2017 for the DXY to 10%. The key technical support many are now watching is the 2016 low near 92. Much of the weakness due to the 57.6% weighting of the EUR in the DXY is the impressive EUR strength. Whatever the reason, the pressure is likely to remain. Per the CFTC, institutional speculators (hedge funds) are holding their largest net short position in the Dollar Index since 2013 before the Taper Tantrum erupted and Bernanke put the pacifier back in the market’s mouth."
  • "One way that many traders were playing USD weakness was via the AUD, which was trading at 2-year highs earlier in the week. On Friday morning, RBA’s Guy Debelle took some enthusiasm out of the trade by saying the revelation in the RBA minutes this week that the neutral rate has shifted higher is not predictive of a future rate increase. On that announcement, AU sovereign bonds went bid falling ~4%, and the AUD was sold across the board. However, looking at the macro picture, risk-on currencies like the commodity bloc and EMFX still appear a favorable way to play USD weakness."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.27 14:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Durable Goods Orders

2017-07-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.8%
  • forecast data is 3.5%
  • actual data is 6.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = hange in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article :

  • "US durable goods orders climbed 6.5 percent in June, most in nearly three years, on surging demand for civilian aircraft."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.29 08:24

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "The big driver for this week seemed to emanate from the Federal Reserve’s statement accompanying the rate decision. There was no press conference, and no updated forecasts; but in the Fed’s statement the bank mentioned that balance sheet reduction may begin ‘relatively soon’. This was largely inferred to mean their next meeting on September 20-21, and while the Fed has said previously that they anticipate invoking balance sheet reduction while also continuing to normalize rates, markets don’t appear to be buying that thesis just yet. U.S. data remains rather soft, and the Fed even voiced concern about lackluster inflation in that statement on Wednesday; and this makes for a difficult environment for tighter operating conditions, much less tightening on dual fronts with both higher rates and balance sheet reduction"


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.05 09:51

Weekly Outlook: 2017, August 06 - August 13 (based on the article)

The US dollar remained on the back foot throughout most of the week, with the jobs report allowing for a comeback. Is this a temporary correction or the start of a dollar rally? The upcoming week features US inflation figures, the JOLTs data, a rate decision in New Zealand and more.


    1. Neel Kashkari talks: Monday 15:25 and also Friday at 15:30. The President of the Minnesota Fed is an outspoken dove that dissented from the previous rate hikes.
    2. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. A small gain is on the cards now. A similar level of 566K is expected now
    3. Chinese inflation figures: Wednesday, 2:00. The recent rises imply higher inflation in other countries, especially in the US.
    4. US Unit Labor Costs: Wednesday, 12:30. 
    5. Crude Oil Inventories:  Wednesday, 14:30.
    6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00.
    7. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Small gains are expected now as well1% on the headline and 0.2% on the core.
    8. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. A small rise f240K to 244K is estimated.
    9. Bill Dudley talks: Thursday, 14:00. The President of the New York Fed is considered No.3 at the powerful institution. He is relatively close to the views of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and his response to the jobs report, including wages, will be of importance.
    10. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. For the month of July, both measures are expected to rise by 0.2%.
    11. Robert Kaplan talks: The President of the Dallas Fed has previously expressed worries about inflation. In his public appearance, he will have the chance to respond the latest inflation report and perhaps provide hints about the next moves by the Fed.

     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.10 19:32

    Dollar Index - monthly correction; 91.93 is the key (based on the article)

    The price on the monthly chart was bounced from 103.82 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. Price is trying to test 91.93 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the correction to be continuing with 88,26 long-term bearish reversal target.


    • "The downward momentum for the US Dollar has wobbled but overall remains on a course that anticipates further weakness. From a fundamental perspective, we heard recently from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley who said that it would take some time for US inflation to rise to 2%, especially on a year-on-year basis. While he blamed the effect on one-offs from months that will take a while to fall out of the year-on-year readings, there appears to be little reason to anticipate the Fed would turn to a surprisingly hawkish stance that would lift the USD out of its 2017 downtrend."
    • "Last month, the key focus of USD weakness was EUR and commodity currency strength, which took EUR/USD above 1.19 and USD/CAD below 1.25. In August, so far, it appears that the Japanese Yen is the focal currency, which has recently traded toward 109 and is close to the lowest level since mid-June of 109.27. A break below 108.13, YTD low of USD/JPY, would argue that the common denominator of larger moves in FX this year has been a rather weak USD, which show few credible signs of turning."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:01

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


    Dollar Index - "The US Dollar finds itself torn between the influence of speculation about Federal Reserve monetary policy and swelling geopolitical risk. This ought to make for a volatile week ahead critical economic news-flow comes across the wires against a backdrop of simmering tension between the US and North Korea. Sizing up scheduled event risk, minutes from July’s FOMC meeting take top billing. As ever, traders will be keen to gauge the level of confidence in policymakers’ standing projection – last updated in June – for three interest rate hikes in 2017 (of which two are already in the history books)."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.15 16:14

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Advance Retail Sales

    2017-08-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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    From marketwatch article :

    • "Sales at U.S. retailers surged in July to the highest level of 2017, aided by strong demand for new autos and Amazon’s Prime Day shopping specials.""Sales at retailers nationwide jumped 0.6% last month, the government said Tuesday. A mysterious decline in spending at the end of the second quarter, meanwhile, vanished after fresh government revisions based on newly incorporated sales data."

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    EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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    XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events



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