Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 213

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.09 10:20

GOLD (XAU/USD) - ranging correction with descending triangle pattern to be formed with 1,206 support level (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud and below 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart with the secondary ranging condition.

If the price breaks 200-day SMA value at 1,263.79 to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If daily price breaks 1,206.59 support level to below so the bearish reversal may be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for the direction of the trend.


  • "Gold prices have gotten crushed; moving from a swing-high above $1,250 just a week ago to below $1,210 as of this writing to tally a total move of -3.3% in a single week. To be sure, there is prime motivation for such a theme which is likely why we’ve seen such little respect of support as Gold prices have been on the way down. With a key Fed meeting next week in which the world may get just the 3rd rate hike from the bank in the past 10 years, the table is set for a continuation of USD-strength and few traders have wanted to stand in the way of the move-lower in Gold prices."
  • "So there is legitimate continuation potential here for further bearish momentum. For traders looking to gain such exposure, resistance at the $1,215.17 area could be extremely attractive for such a scenario. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 major move in Gold prices, but perhaps more importantly this level has come as pertinent to price action over the past few months."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.13 15:22

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 11 pips range price movement 

2017-03-13 13:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at a joint conference organized by the European Central Bank and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in Frankfurt.

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From official report:

  • "There are many reasons why it is a priority today in the euro area to address weak productivity growth. But while some progress can be made in innovation, it is not in my view the sole issue. Equally important for the euro area is to facilitate and encourage the spread of new technology from the frontier to the laggard firms."
  • "Of course, creating the right regulatory framework and market conditions to nurture innovation and promote its transformation into new products and processes is complex, and there is no particular established winning formula. But there are a number of countries in the euro area that have proven relatively more successful at putting in place an effective “innovation ecosystem”."
  • "Simply by diffusing better the technology we already have in the euro area, we could make sizeable gains in productivity. In other words, there is much we can still do to reverse the aggregate productivity slowdown and dispel pessimism about our future."

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 19:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and EUR/USD: Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2017-03-15 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is 1.00%
  • actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report:

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
  • "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.00 percent, effective March 16, 2017."

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GBP/USD M5: 85 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events


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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.17 14:40

S&P 500: End Of Week Technicals - bullish ranging within 2390-2348 levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price broke 2373/2380 resistance levels to above for the 2390 bnearest bullish target.

If the price breaks 2390 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 2348 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement to the ranging bearish market condition will be started: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
if not so the price will be ranging within 2390-2348 levels for direction.


  • "The market may not rip to new highs in the same fashion it did in February, and in fact it may meander side-ways for a period of time (a process which could serve the market well given how far it has come in such a short period of time). As long as those trend-lines hold and we don’t see a sharp break through them develop, we look for short-term weakness to find buyers. A close below the confluence of trend-lines and then ultimately a lower low below 2353 would be required to tilt the picture downward."
  • "Looking higher, the next true level of resistance doesn’t arrive until the previous record high of 2401.
    Next week is light in terms of scheduled economic events, so the market will likely be driven on good old fashioned supply and demand – markets don’t need a big reason to move."

 
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.22 10:32

Dollar Index: support levels at 99.46/99.18 to be broken for the correction to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and above 200-day SMA in the ranging bullish area of the chart. Price is testing descending triangle pattern together with support level at 99.46 and 99.18 to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.


  • "DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). The yearly opening price is 102.38 and could influence for a reaction. I’d also pay attention to 100.39 (March 2015 high…here we are 2 years later by the way…basically unchanged!) for support. A break through one of these levels ideally offers something to work with from a trend perspective."
  • "DXY has broken 100.39 so focus is on the trendline (originates at May 2016 low) and 200 day average just below 99.00. If that breaks, then DXY is a full-fledged bear."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.23 09:10

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 42 pips range price movement 

2017-03-22 20:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report:

  • "The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent.""Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly."

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NZD/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event



 

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Forecast for Q2'17 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.28 07:36

GOLD (XAU/USD) April-June 2017 Forecast: ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for the bullish trend to be resumed or to bearish reversal to be started

W1 price located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1,263.79 resistance level located near and below Senkou Span A line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1,194.91 support level located near and below Senkou Span A line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started. 

Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the possible bullish breakdown by direction, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a bullish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a secondary ranging. By the way, ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish, and Tenkan-sen line is going to be crossed with Kijun-sen signal to above for the bullish trend to be resumed in the near future.


  • If the price breaks 1,263.79 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 1,194.91 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be started with 1,188.20 nearest bearish target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1,263.791,194.91
1,337.161,188.20

Trend:

W1 - ranging

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.30 09:45

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3534 resistance located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.3263 support located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "As of Wednesday, March 29, 2017, Crude Oil has a 20-day rolling inverse relationship with USD/CAD and USD/MXN of -0.557 and -0.579 respectively. The inverse correlation shows us as Oil moves higher, USD/CAD and USD/MXN move lower, albeit not perfectly. Therefore, we should watch Oil to get a sense of what may happen next with USD/CAD."
  • "Currently, USOIL is trading near the 200-DMA, and a failure to break back above on a sustainable basis may lead to further upside in USD/CAD, which the current channel seems to favor."
  • "The spot price of 1.3330 sits above the March 22 low support at 1.32635. Just below the March 22 low is the 50% retracement of the late January to March Range at 1.32517 followed by the 61.8% retracement at 1.31846. Such levels should be watched if Oil gains compound. The resistance in focus in the current move lower is the March 28 high of 1.3414. A reversal below the proven support of 1.3050/150 would need to break to turn the technical view from neutral to bearish."


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