Press review - page 566

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Week Ahead (based on the article)

Daily price is above 55 SMA/200 SMA revcersal levels in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing Fibo resistance level at 23,316 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing

• "The Dow Industrials led the market higher last week as it was up 2% compared to a 0.86% gain in the S&P 500 and only a 0.35% gain in the Nasdaq Composite.  The small cap Russell 2000 was up 0.44%. The weekly NYSE A/D numbers were positive with 1623 stocks advancing with 1433 stocks declining. Surprisingly they were not as strong as the previous week. The monthly chart of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial (DIA) closed at $233.13 which was well above the monthly starc+ band for October at $228.57 (point 1). Based on current data the monthly starc+ band for November is at $233.02. The monthly starc- bands have been tested or exceeded several times in the past ten years but moves above the monthly starc+ bands are more rare. In reviewing the long term chart DIA closed the month of May 2007 at $106.02, point 1, which was above the monthly starc+ band at $104.58. The monthly starc+ band was also exceeded in July 2007 before the market corrected sharply into August."
• "What about the week ahead?  The sentiment of the financial media is too bullish for my liking as one floor trader commented that the stock market was different this time. Believe me in over 35 years this is never the case and while that does not mean the market cannot still go higher the market is likely to eventually disappoint the majority. The newsletter sentiment data from Investors Intelligence indicates there are almost four times more bulls than bears which is a historically high level. To break this down 60% are bullish with just 15.2% bearish. In 2014 when the Bull/Bear ratio was also above 4.0 the market paused for a month before it again moved higher."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicator (free to download):

• Auto Fibonacci Indicator (Auto Fibos) - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 22 - October 29 (based on the article)

The US dollar advanced against most currencies, but the moves were limited.The upcoming week is quite busy, featuring initial GDP reads from the US and the UK, rate decisions from the BOC and the ECB, and more. 

1. Japanese elections: Sunday, results expected before markets open.
2. Australian CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.8% and core CPI by 0.5%.
3. UK GDP (first release): Wednesday, 8:30. Has the economy picked up in Q3? Expectations are for 0.3% q/q once again.
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Headline orders are predicted to advance by 1.1% while core orders carry expectations for 0.5%.
5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00, press conference at 15:15. 
6. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00.
7. ECB Rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. This time, no new forecasts are planned, so Draghi’s words carry more weight.
8. US GDP (first release): Friday, 12:30. An annualized growth rate of 2.7%is on the cards. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, October 22 - October 29 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was under some pressure on the ongoing crisis in Catalonia. The upcoming week is dominated by the all-important ECB decision. What will be the new size of the QE program? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. German Buba Monthly Report: Monday, 10:00.
2. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 14:00. The official measure of inflation by Eurostat got very close to reaching a balanced level of 0, but remains in negative numbers. At -1 seen in September, consumer confidence appears to be mildly pessimistic. A similar level is on the cards now.
3. Flash PMIs: Tuesday morning: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the whole euro-zone.
4. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. IFO is Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank.
5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00.
6. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 7:00. The fourth-largest economy suffered from the crisis in Catalonia, but this will not appear in the quarterly unemployment rate for Q3. In Q2, it stood at a whopping level of 17.2%, yet this is much lower than the peak of above 27% seen in the worst years.
7. Monetary data: Thursday, 8:00.
8. Rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, press conference at 12:30.

[Sergey Golubev]

Google - daily bullish ranging with narrow levels for direction; 997/978 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily share price is far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the narrow s/r level for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed (997 resistance level) or for the secoindary correction to be started (978 support level). 

• "The Financial Times first reported Sunday that the cornerstone company of tech giant Alphabet is developing a new system that would help drive potential subscribers toward news publishers as part of a revenue-split agreement. According to the Times, Google has been negotiating with big names in news on such an arrangement for a while now, and specifically on using its signature ad-targeting tricks to help discover fresh subscribers for news sites."
• "In an interview with the Times, Google's news chief Richard Gringas said that any such arrangement would offer news publishers a better deal than the company gives on its advertising model, which directs 70% of revenue to visited websites."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - intra-day bearish below ranging reversal levels (based on the article)

H4 intra-day price is located below 200 SMA/55 SMA levels in the primary bearish area of the chart: the price is testing the last MA channel level at 1.1714 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. 

• "Though we cannot say for sure which of the patterns we are in, I am leaning towards a continuation of a fourth wave triangle. The triangle pattern implies EUR/USD remains supported above 1.1662 and moves into the 1.19 handle, possibly as high as 1.20."
• "If the fourth wave was a flat pattern and if the flat has previously ended then it implies we are travelling higher in the fifth and final wave. Under this scenario, EUR/USD likely breaks above 1.20 and may move as high as 1.22."

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The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - strong intra-day bearish; 0.6885 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area: the price is testing 0.6885 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "NZD/USD has fallen hard in the past five trading days down nearly 400 pips. A strong move of this nature suggests NZD/USD may be in an impulsive wave lower."
• "The move lower appears incomplete and the next cluster of wave relationships shows up near .65-.66. The Elliott Wave model we are following suggests we are in a wave (iii) lower. Third waves tend to be the longest and strongest of the Elliott Wave sequence. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise to see an 800 pip sell off in the past month when it is delivered through a third wave."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• Daily Box - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• Percentage - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-10-25 01:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.8%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

• "rose 0.6% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.2% in the June quarter 2017."
• "rose 1.8% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2017, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian CPI news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-10-25 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 2.0%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is 2.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From cnbc article :

• "Overall orders for durable goods shot up 2.2 percent last month amid a 5.1 percent rise in demand for transportation equipment."
• "Durable goods orders, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, increased 2.0 percent in August."
• "New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in September and shipments rose for an eighth straight month."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events

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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Chart #2 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOC Monetary Policy Report and range price movement 

2017-10-25 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

• past data is 1.00%
• forecast data is 1.00%
• actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. 

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From official report :

• "The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent."
• "Based on this outlook and the risks and uncertainties identified in today’s MPR, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. While less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. In particular, the Bank will be guided by incoming data to assess the sensitivity of the economy to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by BOC Monetary Policy Report news event 

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Chart.
The chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD - daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish breakdown: price was bounced from Senkou Span line to below for the bearish trend toi be resumed and with 0.7690 support level to be broken for the breakdown to be continuing.

• "AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 53.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.16 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.7% lower than yesterday and 4.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.0% lower than yesterday and 13.0% lower from last week. "
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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Chart.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5