After a Losing Month in 7 EA Backtests, the Next Month Lost Less Often in 4, More in 3; GOLD TRIPWIRE 25.0% vs 13.0%

When a month closes in the red, it is tempting to read it as a sign: either "the EA has stopped working, switch it off" or "a good month is due". We checked what actually followed a losing month inside the published MT5 backtests of 7 of our EAs. For each EA we compared two rates: how often the month after a losing month also lost, and how often the month after a winning month lost. This article uses backtests only. It contains no forward-account figures. Figures are as of 2026-11-09.

- In 4 of the 7 EAs a losing month was followed by another losing month less often than a winning month was. In the other 3 it was more often. There is no common direction.

- The largest gap is GOLD TRIPWIRE: after a losing month the next month lost 25.0% of the time (3 of 12), after a winning month 13.0% (9 of 69). That is 12.0 points, but it rests on 12 losing months; one month more or less moves the 25.0% by about 8 points.

- In the other direction, DONCHIAN ENGINE (free): 41.2% after a losing month (21 of 51) against 49.2% after a winning month (30 of 61), 8.0 points lower.

- The other 5 gaps are between 2.8 and 5.7 points. In this data, a losing month did not tell you much about the next one.

- Each closed trade is assigned to the calendar month in which it closed. Commission and swap are included. Open positions are not valued. A losing month is a month whose net result is below zero; no month in these tests closed at exactly zero.

- A pair is two calendar months in a row that both have at least one trade. A month with no trade breaks the chain, so it is not paired with the month before or after. ETHEREUM TREND has 70 pairs from 78 months with trades; the others lose only the last month of the test.

- "After a losing month" is the number of pairs where both months lost, divided by all pairs that start with a losing month. "After a winning month" is the same for pairs that start with a winning month. The gap is the first minus the second, in percentage points.

- The last column is the maximum relative equity drawdown of the whole test (site settings): the largest fall as a percent of the equity peak. It is not a monthly figure and is shown for scale.

- Not in the table: GOLD KING has no losing month in 89 months, so it has no month after a loss to count; its maximum relative equity drawdown in the same test is 91.3%. GOLD NEURON is left out today because its trade list did not add up to the report total when we rebuilt the monthly breakdown. TRINITY and AIFW are left out because the original report files behind their published backtests are not in our breakdown.

EA | Test period and data | Losing months / months with trades | Next month lost, after a losing month | Next month lost, after a winning month | Gap (points) | Max relative equity DD (whole test)

GOLD TRIPWIRE | M15, 2020.01.01-2026.10.14, 11% real ticks | 12/82 (14.6%) | 25.0% (3/12) | 13.0% (9/69) | +12.0 | 19.0%

ETHEREUM TREND | H4, 2019.01.01-2026.06.28, 100% real ticks | 38/78 (48.7%) | 48.6% (17/35) | 42.9% (15/35) | +5.7 | 17.1%

GOLD VIPER | M30, 2019.01.01-2026.09.01, 8% real ticks | 24/92 (26.1%) | 29.2% (7/24) | 25.4% (17/67) | +3.8 | 30.3%

BITCOIN COMET | H4, 2018.01.01-2025.12.31, 98% | 41/94 (43.6%) | 42.5% (17/40) | 45.3% (24/53) | −2.8 | 31.2%

ATLAS PORTFOLIO | H4, 2019.01.01-2026.06.28, 100% | 36/90 (40.0%) | 37.1% (13/35) | 40.7% (22/54) | −3.6 | 26.3%

MEGAMAX DONCHIAN (USDJPY) | H1, 2017.01.01-2026.06.01, 100% | 51/113 (45.1%) | 42.0% (21/50) | 46.8% (29/62) | −4.8 | 58.6%

DONCHIAN ENGINE (free) | H1, 2017.01.01-2026.06.01, 100% real ticks | 52/113 (46.0%) | 41.2% (21/51) | 49.2% (30/61) | −8.0 | 10.8%

- GOLD TRIPWIRE has the fewest losing months in the table (12 of 82) and the largest positive gap. Losing months were rare, but 3 of the 12 came in pairs. With a sample this small we do not read the 12.0 points as a pattern.

- MEGAMAX DONCHIAN and DONCHIAN ENGINE, the free engine behind it, both lost fewer next months after a losing month (−4.8 and −8.0 points). Both lose in close to half of all months, so a red month was ordinary for them, not a warning.

- Pooled together, the 7 EAs show the opposite of most single rows: 40.1% after a losing month (99 of 247) against 36.4% after a winning month (146 of 401). The reason is the mix. EAs that lose in close to half of all months supply most of the losing months, so they pull the pooled "after a losing month" rate up. Compare rates inside one EA, not a pooled figure.

- The size of the gap has no clear link to the drawdown column. The two largest drawdowns, MEGAMAX DONCHIAN at 58.6% and BITCOIN COMET at 31.2%, both sit in the negative-gap group with small gaps.

- One red month is weak evidence either way. Before you switch an EA off or add to it after a loss, compare the month with the losing-month rate of its own backtest. For an EA that loses in 4 or 5 months of 10, a red month is the normal case.

- A good month is not "due" after a bad one. In 3 of these 7 tests a second losing month was more likely after a first one, not less.

- Size your risk for two or three losing months in a row, and check the maximum relative drawdown of the same test, not only the monthly record.

- This article is about past tests. It does not promise any future result.

- All forward accounts we publish are demo accounts, and none is used in this article.

The two EAs discussed most in this article: GOLD TRIPWIRE https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/202581 · MEGAMAX DONCHIAN https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/181838