Overview
Today’s key themes are aligned bullish signals in the pound and Canadian dollar, weakness in US equities and the Nikkei, and diverging trends across European equity indices.
In FX, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and CAD/JPY are strongly bullish across all timeframes. GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY stand out, with both moving averages and indicators strongly bullish throughout.
By contrast, EUR/GBP and USD/CAD are strongly bearish across all timeframes. Sterling is showing relative strength against the euro, and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. However, GBP/CHF is strongly bearish on the hourly and daily charts, so the pound is not strong against every currency.
In commodities, gold, silver, and copper are showing 5-minute rebounds, but remain strongly bearish from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart. BTC has also improved in the short term, but its daily chart remains in a downtrend.
Among equity indices, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Nikkei are strongly bearish across all timeframes. The DAX and UK 100 have also weakened from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The CAC 40, on the other hand, remains bullish across all timeframes.
Main Changes from the Previous Report
GBP/USD has cleared the 5-minute strong-selling signal and 15-minute neutrality, becoming strongly bullish across all timeframes. GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY are also strongly bullish across all timeframes.
USD/JPY remains strongly bullish across all timeframes. CHF/JPY continues to show strong buying from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart.
EUR/GBP has lost its strong buying from the short-term charts through the hourly chart, returning to strong selling in line with its daily trend. USD/CAD has also shed its short-term buying and neutral signals, becoming strongly bearish across all timeframes.
AUD/USD has deteriorated from neutral to strongly bearish on the daily chart. AUD/NZD has weakened from strongly bullish to neutral on the daily chart, while the short-term and hourly charts are strongly bearish.
EUR/CHF has shifted from strong buying to strong selling on the hourly chart. GBP/CHF has also turned strongly bearish on the daily chart, leaving a short-term rebound in conflict with the higher-timeframe downtrend.
The short-term rebounds in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have faded, leaving both strongly bearish across all timeframes. The Nikkei also remains strongly bearish throughout.
The DAX has reversed from short-term and hourly buying to selling. The UK 100 has deteriorated from strong buying across all timeframes to strong selling from the short-term charts through the hourly chart, with the daily chart now neutral.
Silver and copper have lost their bullish hourly indicators, bringing moving averages and indicators into alignment to the downside. US wheat has also shifted from strong buying to strong selling on the hourly chart.
FX
EUR/USD — 1.1188
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is bearish.
The strong buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts seen previously has broken down. On the hourly chart, moving averages are neutral and indicators are bearish, reducing support for a move higher.
This is a potential selling-rallies setup. The next point to watch is whether the hourly chart also turns bearish.
GBP/USD — 1.3419
All timeframes are strongly bullish.
Both moving averages and indicators point higher across all timeframes. The short-term weakness seen in the previous report has cleared, aligning the pair with the bullish signals on the hourly and daily charts.
This is a candidate to prioritize for buying pullbacks. Watch whether strong buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts holds through any correction.
USD/JPY — 158.14
All timeframes are strongly bullish.
Moving averages and indicators point higher from the short-term charts through the daily chart. The bullish signals have continued since the previous report.
The setup favors buying pullbacks. Rather than chasing the short-term rise, watch whether buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts holds after a correction.
USD/CHF — 0.8178
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the 15-minute chart is bullish, and the hourly and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The 15-minute chart has improved, but moving averages and indicators remain aligned to the downside on the hourly and daily charts. The short-term rebound conflicts with the higher-timeframe downtrend.
This is a potential selling-rallies setup. Watch for the short-term buying to weaken.
AUD/USD — 0.6975
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bearish.
Indicators on the 5-minute chart are strongly bullish, but its moving averages are neutral. From the 15-minute chart upward, both moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside.
The move remains a short-term rebound, and the broader setup favors selling rallies.
NZD/USD — 0.5622
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the 15-minute chart is bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
On the hourly chart, moving averages are strongly bearish while indicators are bullish. The 5-minute chart is rebounding, but buying is not aligned across the 15-minute chart and higher timeframes.
Keep the daily downtrend in view and wait for the conflict on the hourly chart to resolve.
USD/CAD — 1.3964
All timeframes are strongly bearish.
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bearish throughout. The short-term buying and conflicting hourly signals seen previously have cleared, leaving the downtrend more clearly aligned.
Among the major currency pairs, USD/CAD stands out as a clear candidate for selling rallies.
Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 176.93
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bullish; the daily chart is neutral.
Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the upside from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The daily moving averages remain neutral, however, so the uptrend is not confirmed on the higher timeframe.
This is a potential short-term pullback-buying setup. The next point to watch is whether the daily chart improves to bullish.
GBP/JPY — 212.20
All timeframes are strongly bullish.
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bullish across all timeframes. The 5-minute selling seen in the previous report has cleared, bringing the short-term charts into alignment with the daily trend.
GBP/JPY is one of the clearest pullback-buying candidates among the yen crosses.
CHF/JPY — 193.35
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bullish.
The higher-timeframe strength remains intact. On the 5-minute chart, moving averages are neutral and indicators are bearish, pointing to a short-term correction.
Use the buying signal from the 15-minute chart upward as the broader guide, and watch whether the 5-minute chart turns bullish again.
AUD/JPY — 110.30
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the 15-minute chart is bullish, and the hourly and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The pair is rebounding in the short term, but moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside on the hourly and daily charts. The daily chart has also deteriorated from neutral to strongly bearish.
The broader setup favors selling rallies. Watch whether short-term buying extends to the hourly chart or gives way to selling in line with the higher-timeframe trend.
NZD/JPY — 88.89
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bullish; the daily chart is strongly bearish.
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bullish from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. On the daily chart, moving averages are bearish and indicators are strongly bearish.
Short-term buying is clear, but treat it as a rebound against the daily downtrend.
CAD/JPY — 113.25
All timeframes are strongly bullish.
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bullish throughout. Alongside strong selling across all timeframes in USD/CAD, this points to relative strength in the Canadian dollar.
The setup favors buying pullbacks. Like GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY has a clear alignment across timeframes.
EUR/GBP — 0.8339
All timeframes are strongly bearish.
Both moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside across all timeframes. The short-term and hourly rebound seen previously has broken down, bringing the pair back in line with its daily downtrend.
Sterling’s strength against the euro is clear. The broader setup favors selling rallies.
AUD/NZD — 1.2409
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish; the daily chart is neutral.
Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The previous 5-minute buying signal has disappeared, and the daily chart has weakened from strongly bullish to neutral.
In the short term, the signals indicate Australian dollar underperformance against the New Zealand dollar. This is a potential selling-rallies setup, though the daily chart has not joined the downtrend.
EUR/CHF — 0.9150
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The hourly strong-buy signal seen previously has broken down, bringing the pair back in line with the daily trend. The 5-minute rebound remains, but the 15-minute moving averages are neutral and its indicators are bearish.
The broader setup favors selling rallies. Watch for the short-term rebound to fade and the 15-minute chart to align to the downside.
GBP/CHF — 1.0974
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, while the hourly and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The short-term charts have improved, but moving averages and indicators remain aligned to the downside on the hourly and daily charts.
Unlike GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF remains weak on the higher timeframes. Assess the short-term buying separately from the daily selling trend.
Commodities
Gold — 3,908.83
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The 5-minute indicators have improved to strongly bullish, but moving averages remain neutral. From the 15-minute chart upward, moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside.
A short-term rebound is underway, but the broader setup favors selling rallies.
Gold Futures — 3,917.10
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The 5-minute indicators are strongly bullish, but moving averages are neutral. The hourly and daily downtrends remain intact.
As with spot gold, the key question is whether the short-term rebound extends to the 15-minute chart. There is not yet an aligned signal indicating a broader reversal.
Silver — 48.8765
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bearish.
On the hourly chart, indicators were strongly bullish in the previous report. They are now strongly bearish, in line with the moving averages.
The bullish 5-minute indicators alone have not offset the weakness on the higher timeframes. Selling rallies remains the main setup to watch.
Silver Futures — 48.880
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bearish.
On the 5-minute chart, moving averages are neutral and indicators are strongly bullish. From the 15-minute chart upward, moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside.
The short-term rebound conflicts with the higher-timeframe downtrend. Watch whether the improvement extends beyond the 5-minute chart.
WTI Crude Oil — 97.80
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are bearish; the hourly and daily charts are neutral.
On the hourly chart, moving averages are bearish while indicators are strongly bullish. On the daily chart, moving averages are neutral and indicators are bearish, weakening the bullish signal from the previous report.
The short-term charts favor selling, but the hourly chart has not aligned with them. Wait for clearer agreement on direction.
Natural Gas — 2.891
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is bearish.
The strong buying from the short-term charts through the hourly chart seen previously has weakened. On the hourly chart, indicators remain strongly bullish, but moving averages are neutral. Both moving averages and indicators are bearish on the daily chart.
With an hourly buying signal still in place, do not base a bearish view on the short-term and daily charts alone. Watch for the hourly signals to align.
Copper — 6.3605
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The hourly chart has deteriorated from neutral to strongly bearish. On both the hourly and daily charts, moving averages and indicators are strongly bearish.
A 5-minute rebound is underway, but the broader setup favors selling rallies.
US Wheat — 605.13
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The hourly strong-buy signal seen previously has broken down, bringing the market back in line with the daily trend. On the 15-minute chart, moving averages are bullish while indicators are bearish.
The rebound conflicts with clear weakness on the higher timeframes. Watch for the rebound to fade and the 15-minute chart to turn bearish.
BTC/USD — 77,061.0
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish; the hourly and daily charts are strongly bearish.
The market has shifted from strong selling across all timeframes to a short-term rebound. However, both moving averages and indicators remain bearish on the hourly chart and strongly bearish on the daily chart.
The short-term signals have improved, but the higher-timeframe downtrend remains intact. If considering a sell, wait for the short-term buying to weaken.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones — 51,983.98
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish; the daily chart is neutral.
The short-term rebound seen previously has broken down. The daily chart has improved from strong selling to neutral, but its moving averages remain bearish and its indicators are neutral.
Selling is favored in the short term. Do not treat daily neutrality alone as a reversal; wait for the hourly chart to improve.
S&P 500 — 7,541.40
All timeframes are strongly bearish.
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bearish across all timeframes. The 5-minute buying and 15-minute neutrality seen previously have disappeared, bringing the market into alignment with the hourly and daily downtrends.
The setup favors selling rallies. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly charts remain bearish during any rebound.
Nasdaq 100 — 27,989.82
All timeframes are strongly bearish.
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bearish throughout. The short-term rebound seen previously has faded, making the downward signals even clearer.
As with the S&P 500, selling rallies is the preferred setup to watch.
Germany 40 (DAX) — 25,791.88
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
Buying from the short-term charts through the hourly chart has broken down. On the daily chart, however, moving averages and indicators remain aligned to the upside.
This is a correction against the daily uptrend. For a potential pullback-buying setup, wait for selling on the 15-minute and hourly charts to clear.
UK 100 — 10,699.15
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish; the daily chart is neutral.
The market has deteriorated significantly from strong buying across all timeframes in the previous report. From the short-term charts through the hourly chart, all moving-average and indicator signals point lower.
The daily chart has not fully joined the downtrend: its moving averages are neutral and its indicators are bullish. Assess the short-term selling separately from the daily neutrality.
France 40 (CAC 40) — 8,025.50
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bullish; the daily chart is bullish.
Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the upside from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The CAC 40 continues to point higher while the DAX and UK 100 have weakened.
The setup favors buying pullbacks, although the daily moving averages remain neutral and are not fully aligned.
Nikkei 225 — 63,081.86
All timeframes are strongly bearish.
Both moving averages and indicators point lower across all timeframes. The downtrend from the short-term charts through the daily chart continues.
Selling rallies is favored. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly charts remain weak during any rebound.
Strength Rankings
Strongly bullish on all timeframes
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GBP/JPY
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CAD/JPY
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
Both moving averages and indicators are strongly bullish across all timeframes for GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY.
Strongly bullish from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart
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CHF/JPY
The 5-minute chart is neutral, so watch for it to improve after the short-term correction.
Bullish across all timeframes
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France 40 (CAC 40)
The daily moving averages remain neutral, leaving room for stronger alignment on the higher timeframe.
Clearly bullish from the short-term charts through the hourly chart
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NZD/JPY
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EUR/JPY
The daily chart is strongly bearish for NZD/JPY and neutral for EUR/JPY. Assess the short-term strength separately from the daily trend.
Weakness Rankings
Strongly bearish on all timeframes
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EUR/GBP
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USD/CAD
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S&P 500
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Nasdaq 100
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Nikkei 225
Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside across all timeframes.
Strongly bearish from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart
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AUD/USD
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Gold
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Gold futures
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Silver
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Silver futures
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Copper
Even where a 5-minute rebound is present, selling continues from the 15-minute chart upward.
Clear selling signals on the hourly and daily charts
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USD/CHF
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AUD/JPY
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EUR/CHF
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GBP/CHF
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US wheat
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BTC/USD
Short-term buying remains in some of these markets, so watch for the rebound to fade.
Trading Strategy
Prioritize pullback-buying setups
GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are strongly bullish according to the overall signals across all timeframes.
Focus on setups where buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts holds through a short-term correction and the 5-minute chart turns bullish again.
CHF/JPY is also strongly bullish from the 15-minute chart upward. Watch whether the neutral 5-minute chart turns bullish.
Confirm that bullish trends are continuing
The CAC 40 is bullish across all timeframes, but its daily moving averages are neutral. Watch whether they improve while strong buying on the hourly chart holds.
The DAX is strongly bullish on the daily chart, but strongly bearish on the 15-minute and hourly charts. Consider buying pullbacks only after the short-term selling has cleared.
Prioritize selling-rallies setups
EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Nikkei are aligned to the downside from the short-term charts through the daily chart.
AUD/USD, gold, silver, and copper are also clearly bearish from the 15-minute chart upward. Watch for 5-minute rebounds to fade and the markets to resume their higher-timeframe downtrends.
Watch for short-term rebounds to fail
USD/CHF, AUD/JPY, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, US wheat, and BTC have bearish signals on the hourly and daily charts.
As long as short-term buying continues, there is room for a rebound. Watch whether the 15-minute chart turns lower and aligns with the hourly downtrend.
Wait for signals to align
The hourly and daily charts for WTI crude oil are neutral, with conflicting moving-average and indicator signals on the hourly chart.
Natural gas is bullish on the hourly chart but bearish on the daily chart. NZD/USD also has conflicting hourly signals. Wait for clearer alignment before taking a directional view in these markets.
Key Takeaways
GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY show particularly clear alignment to the upside. Strong buying in GBP/USD, combined with strong selling in EUR/GBP and USD/CAD, also points to relative strength in sterling and the Canadian dollar.
However, not all yen crosses are in the same position. GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY are bullish through the daily chart, while AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are strongly bearish on the daily chart.
Among equity indices, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Nikkei are aligned to the downside, while the CAC 40 remains bullish. The DAX is also strongly bullish on the daily chart. Rather than treating European equities as a single market, assess each index across the hourly and daily timeframes.
Short-term rebounds are appearing in commodities, but gold, silver, and copper remain strongly bearish from the 15-minute chart upward. Whether those rebounds extend to the 15-minute and then hourly charts will help determine if the bearish signals are beginning to change.
