Spot Rates
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EUR/USD: 1.1130
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USD/JPY: 157.79
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GBP/USD: 1.3311
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USD/CHF: 0.8285
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USD/CAD: 1.3990
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AUD/USD: 0.7043
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NZD/USD: 0.5618
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EUR/GBP: 0.8365
Today — 29 October
EUR/USD
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1.1100 — €1.9bn
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1.1125 — €625m
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1.1190 — €1.1bn
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1.1200 — €3.0bn — largest
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1.1225 — €1.1bn
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1.1275 — €578m
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1.1300 — €2.7bn
Spot is 1.1130.
The nearest level is 1.1125, around 5 pips below spot. The first point to watch today is whether price approaches this level and then settles.
If EUR/USD falls below 1.1125 and fails to recover, 1.1100, around 30 pips lower, is the next listed level. With €1.9bn in options, it is an important level if the decline continues.
To the upside, 1.1190 is around 60 pips higher and the largest position, at 1.1200, is around 70 pips higher. A total of €4.1bn is concentrated across these two levels, forming a zone to watch if the pair rebounds.
Beyond that, 1.1225 is around 95 pips higher, 1.1275 around 145 pips higher, and 1.1300, with €2.7bn in options, around 170 pips higher. For now, prioritise 1.1125 and 1.1100; if the pair rebounds, watch 1.1190–1.1200.
USD/JPY
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156.95 — $723m
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157.00 — $1.6bn — largest
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157.90 — $940m
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158.50 — $661m
Spot is 157.79.
The nearest level is 157.90, around 11 pips above spot. Watch whether USD/JPY approaches 157.90 ahead of the NY cut and trades back and forth around it.
If the pair breaks above 157.90 and holds, the next listed level is 158.50, around 71 pips higher. The two levels are 60 pips apart, so a break above 157.90 alone does not mean a rally to 158.50 should be expected.
To the downside, the largest position at 157.00 is around 79 pips lower, while 156.95 is around 84 pips lower. A total of $2.323bn is concentrated between 156.95 and 157.00, making this an important zone if the decline extends.
Although 157.00 has the largest position, 157.90 is the more immediate focus given its proximity to spot.
GBP/USD and USD/CHF
No notable options are listed for today.
USD/CAD
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1.3900 — $752m
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1.3965 — $1.1bn — largest
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1.4030 — $976m
Spot is 1.3990.
The nearest level is 1.3965, around 25 pips below spot. It is also the largest position today, making it important if the pair falls toward it.
Watch whether price settles around 1.3965 or breaks below and continues lower without recovering.
To the upside, 1.4030 is around 40 pips higher. With $976m in options, it is a level to watch on a rebound.
The 1.3900 level is around 90 pips lower. It is the next listed level if USD/CAD breaks below 1.3965 and continues down. Since the two levels are some distance apart, focus first on the reaction at 1.3965.
AUD/USD
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0.7000 — A$664m
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0.7025 — A$726m — largest
Spot is 0.7043.
The nearest level is 0.7025, around 18 pips below spot. It is also the largest listed position today, making it the first level to watch.
Watch whether AUD/USD approaches 0.7025 ahead of the NY cut and whether price settles after reaching it.
If the pair falls below 0.7025 and fails to recover, 0.7000, around 43 pips lower, is the next listed level.
Both listed levels are below spot today. However, do not assume a decline or a floor solely because options are positioned there; focus on the reaction after price approaches.
NZD/USD
No notable options are listed for today.
EUR/GBP
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0.8475 — €785m
Spot is 0.8365.
The 0.8475 level is around 110 pips above spot. It is too far away to have much direct influence on price near current levels, but is worth watching if the pair rises substantially.
The size of the position alone is not a reason to expect a move toward 0.8475.
Next Business Day — 30 October
EUR/USD
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1.1075 — €1.5bn
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1.1100 — €1.8bn
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1.1125 — €759m
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1.1150 — €5.1bn — largest
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1.1175 — €2.0bn
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1.1200 — €4.2bn
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1.1225 — €737m
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1.1250 — €762m
Based on the current spot rate, the nearest level is 1.1125, around 5 pips below. It is listed for both today and the next business day, so watch the reaction there over both sessions.
The standout level is 1.1150, with €5.1bn in options, around 20 pips above spot. It is relatively close and is the largest position for the next business day, making it important by both size and proximity.
Beyond that, 1.1175 has €2.0bn around 45 pips higher, and 1.1200 has €4.2bn around 70 pips higher. The total across 1.1150, 1.1175 and 1.1200 is €11.3bn, but watch the reaction at each level separately.
To the downside, 1.1100 is around 30 pips lower and 1.1075 around 55 pips lower. These are levels to watch if the pair breaks below 1.1125 and fails to recover.
If the advance continues, 1.1225 is around 95 pips higher and 1.1250 around 120 pips higher. For now, prioritise 1.1125 and the large position at 1.1150.
USD/JPY
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157.00 — $1.2bn
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157.50 — $571m
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157.80 — $539m
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158.00 — $1.9bn — largest
Based on the current spot rate, the nearest level is 157.80, just 1 pip above spot. It is almost at the current price, so watch whether USD/JPY continues to trade around this level into the next business day.
The largest position, at 158.00, is around 21 pips higher. With today’s 157.90 level also nearby, watch the reaction at 157.80, 157.90 and 158.00 in sequence.
To the downside, 157.50 is around 29 pips lower and 157.00 around 79 pips lower. The 157.00 level has more than $1bn in options listed for both today and the next business day, keeping it in focus if the decline extends.
GBP/USD
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1.3300 — £726m
Based on the current spot rate, 1.3300 is around 11 pips below.
It is close to spot and is a near-term level to watch for the next business day. See whether price settles after approaching 1.3300 or breaks below and moves further down.
USD/CHF
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0.8325 — $610m
Based on the current spot rate, 0.8325 is around 40 pips higher.
Watch this level if the pair rebounds. See whether the advance stalls after approaching it or breaks above and holds.
USD/CAD
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1.4025 — $791m — largest
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1.4040 — $701m
Based on the current spot rate, 1.4025 is around 35 pips higher and 1.4040 around 50 pips higher. A total of $1.492bn is concentrated across these two levels.
Today’s 1.4030 level falls within this range. If the pair rebounds, watch the reaction between 1.4025 and 1.4040.
These levels are some distance from spot, so do not assume the pair will reach them. First, check whether the rebound has momentum.
AUD/USD
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0.6925 — A$612m
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0.7000 — A$614m
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0.7025 — A$1.2bn — largest
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0.7075 — A$600m
Based on the current spot rate, the nearest level is 0.7025, around 18 pips below. It is the largest position for the next business day and is listed for both today and tomorrow.
If AUD/USD falls toward 0.7025, watch whether the move settles or breaks below and fails to recover.
The 0.7000 level is around 43 pips lower and is also listed for both days. It is the next level to watch if the pair falls below 0.7025 and the decline continues.
To the upside, 0.7075 is around 32 pips higher and is a level to watch if the pair rebounds.
The 0.6925 level is around 118 pips below spot. For now, prioritise 0.7025 and 0.7075, followed by 0.7000.
NZD/USD and EUR/GBP
No notable options are listed for the next business day.
Overall Picture
Today, EUR/USD’s 1.1125 is around 5 pips below spot, USD/JPY’s 157.90 is around 11 pips above, and AUD/USD’s 0.7025 is around 18 pips below. These are the closest listed levels.
USD/CAD’s largest position, at 1.3965, is around 25 pips below spot and is important if the pair falls toward it. To the upside, 1.4030 is around 40 pips higher.
EUR/USD’s largest position today, at 1.1200, is around 70 pips above spot. For now, prioritise the reaction at 1.1125 and 1.1100.
For the next business day, EUR/USD has large options of €5.1bn at 1.1150 and €4.2bn at 1.1200. The 1.1150 level is particularly important: it is only around 20 pips above spot and is the main level to watch tomorrow.
For USD/JPY, tomorrow’s 157.80 is almost at spot, while 158.00, around 21 pips higher, has $1.9bn in options. AUD/USD’s 0.7025 is listed for both days, with the position rising to A$1.2bn tomorrow.
Trading Strategy
For EUR/USD, watch the reaction at 1.1125. If the level holds and the pair rebounds, focus on 1.1150 for the next business day. If price breaks below and fails to recover, 1.1100 is the next level to watch. If EUR/USD clears 1.1150 and continues higher, watch 1.1175 for the next business day, followed by today’s 1.1190–1.1200 zone.
For USD/JPY, focus on the approach to 157.90 today and whether price holds there. Into the next business day, watch whether the pair continues to trade around 157.80–158.00 or breaks away from the zone and establishes a direction. On a decline, 157.50 for the next business day, followed by 156.95–157.00, are reference levels.
For USD/CAD, watch the reaction as the pair approaches 1.3965. If it rebounds, monitor the next-day 1.4025, today’s 1.4030 and the next-day 1.4040 in sequence.
For AUD/USD, the key question is whether 0.7025 holds. If the pair breaks below and fails to recover, watch 0.7000. If it rebounds, 0.7075 for the next business day is a level to monitor.
GBP/USD’s next-day 1.3300 is close to spot, so watch price action as the pair approaches it. In all cases, do not choose a trade direction based only on the options levels; focus on whether price settles after approaching a level or breaks through and holds beyond it.
