From Tokyo with Tech: AI Forecasts for Today's Economic Releases (Thu 29 Oct 2026)
Every trading day I publish AI forecasts for the day's key economic releases before they come out, and score every one of them the next day, misses included. The forecasts are made by Claude, an AI model, from the market consensus, the latest headlines (Bloomberg, central banks and other news) and how the currency pairs and gold reacted to the same releases over the last 3 years. The major currencies are covered, and also MXN, ZAR, SEK, NOK and SGD.
Today in one line: Thursday comes right after a Fed hold that softened the dollar. US core PCE and jobless claims at 12:30 carry the most risk, and the ECB is expected to hold at 2.65% after hikes in June and September.
Today's forecasts: the number
| GMT | JST | Release | Consensus / previous | AI: the number | Below / in line / above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 17:00 | SEK Inflation Expectations | 6.9%* / 6.3% | Below 48% | 48% / 12% / 40% |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% / 0.2% | In line 55% | 25% / 55% / 20% |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Unemployment Claims | 198K / 194K | Below 47% | 47% / 8% / 45% |
| 13:15 | 22:15 | EUR Main Refinancing Rate | 2.65% / 2.65% | In line 83% | 2% / 83% / 15% |
The AI's most likely outcome against the consensus, with the three probabilities. Times are GMT and Japan time (JST).
* For currencies that ForexFactory does not cover (MXN, ZAR, SEK, NOK, SGD) the number to beat is the forecast published in the MetaTrader 5 economic calendar, not a market consensus.
Today's forecasts: the market in the first 15 minutes
| GMT | Release | Pair | AI: direction after 15 min | Usual 15-min move | 1 in 4 moved more than | AI: bigger than usual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | SEK Inflation Expectations | USD/SEK | Up 54% | 53.0 pips | 93.6 pips | Smaller 55% |
| 12:30 | USD Core PCE Price Index m/m, Unemployment Claims | USD/JPY | Down 52% | 10.1 pips | 18.2 pips | Bigger 60% |
| 12:30 | USD Core PCE Price Index m/m, Unemployment Claims | Gold | Up 52% | 3.81 USD | 8.01 USD | Bigger 60% |
| 13:15 | EUR Main Refinancing Rate | EUR/USD | Down 53% | 6.4 pips | 11.4 pips | No lean |
Direction is the price 15 minutes after the release against the price at the release minute. The usual move is the median of that distance over the last 3 years; one release in four moved more than the next column. Pips for FX pairs, US dollars for gold.
Why
08:00 GMT (17:00 JST), SEK Inflation Expectations
- The MT5 forecast of 6.9% calls for a large jump from 6.3%, and calendar forecasts for this survey are often off.
- The energy shock from the Iran war argues for higher expectations, but a jump this large is less likely than a smaller rise.
- USD/SEK rose after five of the last six releases, so I lean slightly toward a higher USD/SEK.
12:30 GMT (21:30 JST), USD Core PCE Price Index m/m, Unemployment Claims
- Core PCE usually matches a consensus already mapped from CPI and PPI; a TradingKey preview flags upside risk, and the last three prints were 0.2 or lower.
- Bloomberg reports the Fed held 10-2 without a clear December signal, and FXStreet says the dollar fell during Warsh's press conference, which leaves room for a data-driven repricing.
- Claims have stayed in a tight 194-199K range. With PCE released at the same minute, the 15-minute move is more likely than usual to beat the median.
13:15 GMT (22:15 JST), EUR Main Refinancing Rate
- The ECB raised rates in June and September; a hold at 2.65% is the consensus, though an economy.ac piece on the energy price shock keeps some hike risk alive.
- EUR/USD fell 15 minutes after five of the last six decisions, because the statement alone rarely surprises hawkishly before the press conference.
- Volatility left over from US PCE at 12:30 could push the move above its small 6.4-pip median.
How the forecasts are scored
- The number: the AI's most likely outcome (below, in line with or above the ForexFactory consensus, or the MetaTrader 5 calendar forecast for currencies ForexFactory does not cover) against the actual value in the MetaTrader 5 economic calendar, compared at the consensus' decimal precision.
- Direction: the price 15 minutes after the release against the price at the release minute (M1 bars from one broker's MT5 demo feed). A zero move is not scored.
- Size: whether the absolute 15-minute move was larger than the 3-year median shown in the table.
- Only forecasts published at least 5 minutes before the release are scored. Every forecast and result is kept in a hash-chained log, so nothing can be changed after the fact.
These are AI forecasts for research and education, not trading advice. Releases can surprise either way, and the market can move against the surprise.
The usual moves come from News Impact Statistics, an indicator for MetaTrader 5 that measures them on your own broker's prices and shows the next releases on your chart.
