Last week was risk-off, but investors did not seek protection in gold. Stress around AI-infrastructure financing hit technology stocks and Treasury yields, escalation around Iran supported oil, while metals were sold off. The euro stayed in a narrow range, while Bitcoin remained under pressure from spot-ETF outflows and weaker risk appetite. The dollar held its ground, oil rose strongly, and precious metals ended notably lower.
💶 EUR/USD
Early in the week, the pair confirmed the bullish scenario from our previous forecast and then held key support. It started at 1.1193, rose to 1.1260 on Tuesday, then returned and closed near 1.1200. Risk-off sentiment and a hawkish Fed are limiting buyers. Support: 1.1180-1.1200, then 1.1160-1.1180 and 1.1110-1.1125. Resistance: 1.1260-1.1285, then 1.1380-1.1410. While above 1.1180-1.1200, the outlook is moderately bullish: a break above 1.1260-1.1285 could open the way to 1.1380-1.1410; losing 1.1180 – to 1.1110-1.1125.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin moved higher and then returned – starting at 80,900, rising to 84,860, falling to 80,830 and closing Friday near 81,300. Pressure comes from spot-ETF outflows of about $636 million for the week and broader risk-off sentiment around the AI sector. Support: 80,700-81,000, then 79,700-80,000 and 75,000-76,000. Resistance: 84,300-85,000, then 87,000-87,400 and 89,500-90,500. While BTC remains below 84,300-85,000, the outlook is moderately bearish: below 79,700-80,000 → 75,000-76,000; above 84,300-85,000 → 87,000-87,400. A 80,000-85,000 range is also possible.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent consolidated well above its previous range: a low of 103.35 followed by a surge towards 112.00. The main driver remains Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Further escalation or threats to shipping could quickly push oil back towards the highs, while de-escalation could trigger a sharp correction. Forecasting Brent is therefore especially difficult now. Support: 109.40-110.30, then 106.00-108.00, 103.50-105.50 and 101.90-102.50. Resistance: 114.00-114.50, then 117.50-118.00 and 120.00. While Brent remains above 109.40-110.30, buyers technically retain the advantage, but geopolitics can quickly change the scenario.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold completed the bearish branch of our previous forecast: starting at 4,167, failing to break 4,200, then falling through 4,100 and closing near 3,996. Safe-haven demand moved mainly into US Treasuries, while a firm dollar and renewed profit-taking added pressure. Support: 3,885-3,940, then 3,615-3,710 and 3,250-3,410. Resistance: 4,100-4,120, then 4,145-4,155 and 4,200-4,250. While below 4,100-4,120, the outlook is moderately bearish: losing 3,885-3,940 could open the way to 3,615-3,710; above 4,120 – another attempt at 4,200.
⚠️ Key Events of the Week
The main event is the Fed interest-rate decision on 28 October and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, which could set the direction for the dollar, gold and equities. The same day brings rate decisions from the central banks of New Zealand and Canada. 29 October – ECB rate decision, US GDP and PCE; 30 October – Bank of Japan rate decision, German CPI, Eurozone GDP and unemployment. US consumer confidence is due on 27 October. For oil, Iran and Hormuz geopolitics remain the key factor.
📈 Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bullish above 1.1180-1.1200; above 1.1260-1.1285 → 1.1380-1.1410. BTC/USD – moderately bearish below 84,300-85,000; below 79,700-80,000 → 75,000-76,000; a 80,000-85,000 range is possible. Brent – bullish above 109.40-110.30, but further movement depends on Iran and Hormuz. XAU/USD – moderately bearish below 4,100-4,120; below 3,885 → 3,615-3,710.
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