Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 29 – July 03, 2026

As we expected, the past week was marked by further US dollar strength. The DXY index climbed to 101.79, while strong US economic data and persistent inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer. May's PCE inflation remained well above the Fed's target, increasing pressure on assets that are sensitive to the dollar and bond yields. As a result, EUR/USD, bitcoin, oil and gold all extended their declines, while investors became more cautious toward risk assets.

💶 EUR/USD

EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1385 after falling to 1.1324 on June 25. The pair broke below the lower boundary of its medium-term range at 1.1400-1.1850, reaching its lowest level since the summer of 2025. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1390-1.1415, followed by 1.1500-1.1530 and 1.1590-1.1620. Support is located at 1.1325-1.1350, followed by 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1100 and 1.1065. As long as the pair remains below 1.1440, the scenario stays neutral-to-bearish. A move back above 1.1500-1.1530 would ease pressure on the euro.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

On Saturday, June 27, BTC/USD is trading around 60,300 after falling to 58,000 on June 25. The market remains under pressure from a stronger dollar, weaker demand for risk assets and cautious investor sentiment. The nearest resistance is located at 60,650, followed by 61,850-62,200, 64,255 and 65,570. Support is located at 58,000-59,000, followed by 56,000 and 53,000-54,000. As long as BTC/USD remains below 62,200, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.

🛢 Brent Oil

Brent ended the week at 73.49 dollars per barrel, extending its sharp decline. Since early May, oil has lost more than 35%, returning to levels last seen before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Pressure on prices has come from a stronger dollar, expectations of weaker global demand and a lower geopolitical risk premium as the situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has stabilised. However, any new supply disruption could quickly bring volatility back to the market. The nearest resistance is located at 75.00-76.40, followed by 78.50-79.50 and 80.00-82.00. Support is located at 71.90-72.60, followed by 70.30, 69.00 and 66.30-67.00. As long as Brent remains below 76.40, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold ended the week at 4,089 dollars per ounce after falling to a low of 3,958. The stronger dollar, higher US Treasury yields and lower expectations of an early Fed rate cut all weighed on the precious metal. After breaking below 4,100, the market entered a higher-risk zone. The nearest resistance is located at 4,100, followed by 4,200-4,250 and 4,350. Support is located at 4,000-4,020, followed by 3,930-3,960, 3,880 and 3,710-3,760. A recovery toward 4,200-4,250 cannot be ruled out, but as long as prices remain below this area, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

On June 30, markets will focus on UK GDP, Germany's inflation data, the US JOLTS job openings report and US Consumer Confidence. On July 01, the Eurozone CPI, the ADP employment report, Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. The main event of the week comes on July 02 with the US labour market report, including Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Weekly jobless claims will also be published. On July 03, US financial markets will be closed for the Independence Day holiday.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 1.1440. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 62,200. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 76.40. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 4,200-4,250.