Fundamental Market Analysis for 05.06.2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1615, remaining under pressure due to steady demand for the US dollar. The American currency is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and investors’ cautious attitude toward risk assets. Brent is holding above $90 per barrel, increasing concerns about inflation and supporting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
For the euro, the situation remains difficult. Rising energy prices increase costs for businesses and households in the eurozone, which worsens the outlook for industry and consumer demand. The ECB is in a difficult position: inflation risks require caution, while weak economic dynamics limit the room for more decisive action.
Today, the market’s attention is focused on the US employment report. The number of jobs is expected to have increased by 85,000 in May, while unemployment is expected to remain at 4.3%. If the data confirms the resilience of the labor market, the dollar may maintain its advantage, while EUR/USD may continue to decline.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1615, SL 1.1645, TP 1.1525
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3425, ending the week under moderate pressure. The pound is being held back from a sharper decline by expectations that the Bank of England will not rush to change its interest rate. However, the external backdrop remains unfavorable. Tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and demand for the US dollar limit interest in the British currency.
The British economy is sensitive to expensive energy resources, as higher fuel and electricity prices increase the burden on businesses and consumers. This may restrain domestic demand and worsen expectations for economic growth. At the same time, high inflation does not allow the Bank of England to act freely, so the pound does not receive a strong fundamental advantage.
The key event of the day remains US employment statistics. If the data proves resilient, the market may strengthen its view that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious policy for longer. In this scenario, the dollar may receive additional support, while GBP/USD may continue declining toward the nearest target levels.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3335
Event to watch today:
05.06 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate
USDJPY:
USD/JPY is once again testing the 160.00 area, which remains a zone of increased market attention. The dollar is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and expectations of strong US statistics. However, further upside movement is becoming risky, as Japanese authorities have already strengthened warnings about a possible response to excessive currency fluctuations.
The yen remains weak due to the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, as well as pressure from expensive oil on the Japanese economy. At the same time, real wages are rising in Japan, which may strengthen expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the June 15–16 meeting. This creates a basis for a cautious yen recovery, especially if dollar profit-taking begins.
Today, the key factor will be the US employment report. Strong data may temporarily support the dollar, but proximity to 160.00 limits the upside potential for USD/JPY. With the risk of action by Japan remaining, the base scenario suggests a corrective decline in the pair from current levels.
Trading recommendation: SELL 160.00, SL 160.30, TP 159.10
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