Fundamental Market Analysis for 03.06.2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

Events to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1630, remaining under pressure due to steady demand for the US dollar. The American currency is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and investors’ cautious attitude toward risk assets. An additional factor was the US labor market data: the number of job openings in April rose to 7.6 million, indicating continued steady demand for labor.

For the euro, the situation is complicated by accelerating inflation in the eurozone. According to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate, annual consumer price growth in May rose to 3.2% after 3.0% in April. Rising energy prices increase pressure on businesses and households, while also complicating the ECB’s task. At the same time, the eurozone economy remains sensitive to expensive resources and weak external demand.

In the US, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for April rose by 3.8% year-on-year, while the core indicator increased by 3.3% year-on-year. Such dynamics reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing of Federal Reserve policy and support the dollar. If geopolitical tensions and strong US data persist, EUR/USD may continue to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1540

Events to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3465, maintaining relative stability, but the pound’s growth potential remains limited. The British currency is supported by the high Bank of England rate, but investors continue to monitor the situation around Iran and risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Any increase in tensions may support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and increase pressure on the pair.

The domestic background in the UK is mixed. The Bank of England keeps the rate at 3.75%, but rising oil and energy prices may increase inflationary pressure. At the same time, the country’s economy remains vulnerable to higher costs for businesses and households. Political risks also remain and may limit demand for the pound in the coming days.

The dollar is supported by strong US job openings data and elevated inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index remains noticeably above the Federal Reserve’s target level, reducing expectations of an early rate cut. Under this balance of factors, GBP/USD may return to decline, especially if US statistics continue to confirm the resilience of the economy.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3465, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3375

Events to watch today:

11:50 EET. JPY - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 160.00, returning to the area of increased attention from Japanese authorities. The dollar is strengthening due to tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and strong US labor market data. However, the pair’s proximity to 160.00 makes further dollar purchases riskier, as this area was previously accompanied by Japanese intervention.

Japan’s finance minister stated readiness to respond to excessive movements in the currency market. Market participants are also waiting for signals from the Bank of Japan governor, as a possible rate hike in June could support the yen. Even if the Bank of Japan remains cautious, the threat of action by the authorities itself may limit USD/JPY growth.

The fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains strong: US inflation is holding above the Federal Reserve’s target, while the number of job openings in April rose to 7.6 million. However, a significant part of this support is already reflected in the price. With the threat of currency intervention remaining, the base scenario suggests a corrective decline in USD/JPY from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.95, SL 160.25, TP 159.05

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