The past week was influenced by inflation data, the revision of US GDP, and changes in the geopolitical backdrop. The downward revision of US GDP increased concerns about an economic slowdown, while softer monthly Core PCE data – a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve – reduced expectations that high interest rates in the United States will remain in place for an extended period. Against this backdrop, US Treasury yields moved lower, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the recovery of EUR/USD. An additional factor was the reduction of the geopolitical premium related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. This led to lower oil prices while allowing gold to recover part of its previous losses. Bitcoin, although still under pressure, also managed to improve its position slightly.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1660, recovering from the 1.1580 area but remaining within the medium-term sideways range of 1.1400-1.1850. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1670-1.1700. A breakout above this zone may open the way to 1.1755-1.1785 and then to 1.1830-1.1850. Support is located at 1.1580-1.1600, followed by 1.1500-1.1530, 1.1445, and 1.1390-1.1410. As long as the price remains above 1.1580-1.1600, the scenario remains neutral with a moderately bullish bias. However, strong US business activity and labour market data may once again increase pressure on the euro.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
BTC/USD ended the trading week at 73,590. After unsuccessful attempts to return to 80,000, the market continues to show signs of weakness, while buying momentum remains limited. The nearest resistance is located around 76,000, followed by 78,100-79,500 and 80,000. Only a move above 80,000 would allow the market to target 82,000-82,800 again. Support is located at 72,380-72,450, followed by 70,500-71,200 and 65,000-66,000. As long as BTC/USD remains below 80,000, the scenario stays neutral-to-bearish.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent closed the week at 91.30 dollars per barrel, falling sharply after moving below the psychological 100.00 level. Reduced concerns about supply disruptions lowered the geopolitical premium, although developments in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz remain a source of potential sharp price movements. At present, oil is trading near the lower boundary of the medium-term sideways channel of 90.00-113.60. The nearest resistance is located at 94.00-95.00, followed by 97.00-98.00 and 100.00. Support is located at 90.00-91.00, followed by 88.50 and 84.50-86.00. As long as the price remains below 97.00-98.00, the scenario for Brent remains neutral-to-bearish.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed the week at 4,540 dollars per ounce, partially recovering after falling toward the 4,350 support zone. The rise in gold amid a weaker dollar appears logical; however, the market has not yet managed to secure a position above key resistance levels. The nearest resistance is located at 4,580-4,600, followed by 4,650-4,660, 4,765-4,800 and 4,855-4,890. Support is located at 4,450-4,500, followed by 4,350 and 4,200-4,250. As long as prices remain below 4,600-4,650, the scenario stays neutral with a risk of renewed decline.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
During the coming week, market attention will focus on eurozone inflation as well as US business activity and labour market data. On June 01, the US Manufacturing PMI will be released. On June 02, the preliminary Eurozone CPI will be published. On June 03, the United States will release the ADP Employment Report, the Services PMI, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. On June 05, the key US labour market report will be released, including Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth data.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral with a moderately bullish bias above 1.1580-1.1600. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 80,000. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 97.00-98.00. XAU/USD – neutral below 4,600-4,650.
