Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 16 – 20, 2026
As expected, the past week was influenced by both macroeconomic statistics and geopolitical factors. The focus was on inflation data in the United States and Germany, however the main driver for commodity markets continued to be the situation in the Middle East. Against this background the dollar continued to strengthen, while oil and gold remained sensitive to news about a possible escalation of the conflict. By the end of the week the main assets once again approached important technical levels that may determine market dynamics in the coming days.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair remained under steady pressure from the dollar throughout the week and finished the week at 1.1415. Thus the market moved into the area of the important support zone at 1.1390-1.1420. If pressure on the euro continues, a breakout of this area may open the way to 1.1350, then to 1.1300, and further to 1.1230. At the same time, in case of an upward technical correction, the nearest resistance is located in the 1.1510-1.1530 area. A breakout of this level may return quotes to 1.1610 and further to 1.1700.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin fully repeated the scenario of the previous week – a rise to 73,950 followed by a return to the 70,000-71,000 area. Thus the market once again attempted to consolidate above the 74,000 zone, which remains the nearest resistance. Its confident breakout may open the way to 75,500-80,000, while the next target for bulls remains a return to the corridor of 85,000-90,000. If risk-off sentiment intensifies and the price falls below 70,000, the nearest support for BTC/USD is located around 68,000, followed by 65,000-65,600, 62,415-63,000 and 59,785-60,000.
🛢 Brent Oil
Oil remains one of the most sensitive instruments and the main barometer of geopolitical risks. At the beginning of the week the market showed a gap, rising to 119.50 dollars per barrel, however part of this movement was later corrected. By the end of the week the price stabilised around 100.80-103.15. In the short term the key resistance is the 103.50-104.00 zone. Its confident breakout may lead to a new wave of growth towards 110.00 and further to the highs near 119.50. If geopolitical tensions weaken, a correction towards the supports at 97.60, 95.20-95.60 and 94.20 is possible. If the situation stabilises, a deeper correction and a return of quotes to the 84.50-91.60 zone cannot be ruled out.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
In the previous forecast we warned about the increased probability of a downward correction. This is exactly what happened – gold finished the week at 5,021 dollars per ounce, close to the medium-term upward support. The XAU/USD pair managed to remain within the range of 5,000-5,250. Below are the levels of 4,840-4,875, 4,655 and 4,550. If demand for safe-haven assets increases, a rise towards 5,180 and 5,250 can be expected. The next targets for bulls remain the levels of 5,450 and 5,595.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
Next week the key factor for markets may be central bank decisions. On March 17 the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will take place. On March 18 decisions of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Central Bank of Brazil are expected. On March 19 markets will follow the meetings of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan. This block of decisions may significantly influence the dynamics of currency pairs and commodity assets.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 1.1510-1.1530. BTC/USD – neutral with resistance at 74,000. Brent – volatile bullish scenario while the price is above 95.20-95.60. XAU/USD – moderately bullish while prices remain above 4,985-5,000.
