Gold Analysis - XAUUSD
10:25 AM Thursday, December 4, 2025 (GMT)
Hey everyone, Aty here! Programmer by day, trader by passion – back with your daily gold breakdown. Everything you’re about to read is calculated and analyzed using the exact tools I built myself. If you’re curious about them, links are in the bio. Also feel free to join the channel – we’re growing fast and I drop extra stuff there almost every day
Now let’s get straight into the gold!
XAUUSD Analysis – Full Detailed Version
Based on the latest market data and pure price action, my current bias is: Short-term bullish pullback → followed by high-probability bearish continuation. In simple words: we might see one more push up to retest the recent highs, grab some liquidity, and then the real move down could start. Classic manipulation before the drop.
Golden Levels You Must Watch Today • 4207.50 – Fresh M5 high.
This is the line in the sand. A clean break and close above it would give the bulls real momentum. But honestly? This exact level also has heavy bearish order blocks sitting on M5 & M15, so it’s my favorite zone to look for shorts on rejection.
• 4191.75 – 4193.57 zone (with EMA100 at 4194.61 on M5) – This is where SMA100 and EMA100 are literally stacked on top of each other across M1 and M5. Institutional eyes are 100% on this area. Expect reactions – big support if we’re still bullish, strong resistance if bears take control.
Price Action Game Plan
• Bearish Order Blocks: Strong ones sitting right around the 4207.5 area on both M5 and M15. These are institutional selling zones – price loves to reject hard from here.
• Pullbacks & RSI: RSI is getting stretched (relatively high) on M1, M5, and M15 → perfect setup for pullbacks into the 4191.75-4194.61 zone. That’s where smart entries will appear depending on your bias.
• Liquidity Grab: Almost guaranteed we see a sweep above 4207.50 first. That’s where all the stop-losses of late longs and breakout buyers are hiding. Institutions love to hunt that liquidity before reversing.
• Pivot Behavior: No static pivot data right now, so we treat recent swing highs and swing lows as dynamic pivots. Long-term major swing low still sits at ~3998 on H4 – that’s the “doomsday” level if bears really want to get aggressive. ICT / Smart Money Perspective
• Fair Value Gaps (FVG): No specific FVG flagged in the current dataset, but go check your charts manually – look for those 3-candle imbalances where price ran hard and left a gap between bodies. Those gaps act like magnets.
• Market Structure Shift (MSS): Watch lower timeframes closely. A clear break and close below the most recent swing low on M1/M5 would be my confirmation for bearish reversal.
• Breaker Blocks: If price sweeps 4207.50+, fails to continue up, and then drops back below, we’re very likely forming a breaker block right there – textbook future resistance. Last Visible Patterns Not enough candles yet for a solid pattern confirmation today. Better to zoom out and keep it clean – we trade levels and structure, not hope.
Key Levels Summary (Don’t Skip These!) Resistance Zone
4207.50 (M5 High) → 4212.80 → 4216.75 → 4241.66 (bigger M15/H1 highs)
Support Zone 4183.53 (M1 & M5 lows) → 4175.07 → 4155.82 (H1 low)
These levels decide entries, stops, and targets for thousands of traders today. Watch the reaction – that’s where the money is made.
How I See the Start of This Week We’re kissing major resistance + RSI is moderately overbought on lower timeframes. My expectation: cautious open, one short-term bullish push (maybe even a liquidity sweep), then rejection and the real bearish move begins.
Buy or Sell Right Now? I’m personally waiting to short around 4207.50 (or on clear rejection after a sweep). First targets: 4190 – 4183 zone. If we lose 4183 cleanly, next stop could be 4175 and lower. Be patient, trade only the A+ setups, and let the market come to you!
Final reminder: Every trade you take is 100% your own responsibility.
See you in the charts!
Aty
