GOLD - (XAUUSD) - DAILY FORECAST — Feb 23, 2026

📈 XAUUSD DAILY FORECAST — Feb 23, 2026

Fundamental Drivers Today

Major Market Drivers

• U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling & renewed Trump tariff push triggered fresh trade and geopolitical uncertainty, boosting safe-haven demand for gold. Gold prices climbed to multi-week highs near $5,136 – $5,180 early today as the U.S. Dollar weakened and volatility increased.

• Tariff uncertainty fuels risk aversion — investors rotated into bullion, expecting central banks and global buyers to maintain physical demand amid macro ambiguity.

• Weak USD environment today supports gold strength and sets the tone for broader upside potential.

What to Watch Today

• Fed policy expectations remain in focus even though no new key U.S. macro prints are due today — markets are positioning around ongoing tariff implications and risk appetite.

• Volatility could spike on unexpected geopolitical headlines.

Market theme today: Safe haven demand driving bullish sentiment; watch price reactions at key resistance levels.

📊 Technical Analysis — Current Price Structure

Current Spot Price Range: ~$5,130–$5,180+ in early trading today.

🔑 Key Daily Support & Resistance

Price reclaiming above $5,100 suggests buyers are back in control intraday.

🕒 4-Hour Chart — Trend & EMA Structure

 20 EMA & 50 EMA Behavior

• 20 EMA on 4H has recently acted as dynamic support, confirming buyers on dips and holding structure during pullbacks.

• 50 EMA on 4H continues to provide strong support underneath price, keeping the medium-term trend bullish.

• Fast EMAs (5 & 9) on 4H are either completing or close to a bullish crossover, adding upward momentum bias today.

Interpretation: Price holding above both EMAs with potential 5/9 EMA bullish crossover reinforces a bullish bias intraday and intramedium term, as long as support levels hold.

📉 Indicator Signals & Momentum

📌 4H RSI (14)

• RSI is in bullish territory but not yet extreme, indicating momentum remains positive with room to extend higher.

• Rising RSI supports the continuation theme after reclaiming the $5,100 zone.

📌 Stochastic (4H)

• Stochastic remains elevated but has not reached extreme overbought, suggesting bullish momentum still active.

• Use Stochastic on 15M & 1H to time entries within the prevailing bullish trend: oversold crosses in those lower timeframes in the direction of the trend offer ideal execution points.

📌 Parabolic SAR (15M / 1H)

• 15-minute Parabolic SAR flips confirm the immediate intraday trend: SAR dots below price indicate bullish intraday momentum currently.

• Use SAR to refine entries/exits: a flip above price signals intraday corrections.

📌 Overbought / Oversold Oscillator (Multi-Timeframe)

1H Oscillator

• Neutral-to-bullish; signals support continuation on strength.

5M / 15M Oscillator

• Oscillator transitions from oversold to neutral offer precise timing for intraday buy entries.

• Overbought oscillator at resistance favors intraday profit taking or scalp shorts.

Rule: Combine oscillator extremes with structure (supports/resistances) before acting.

Actionable Setups for Today

🔹 Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)

Conditions:
✔ Price sustaining above $5,100
✔ EMAs (20/50 on 4H) holding support
✔ Stochastic continuing above mid zone
✔ Parabolic SAR (15M) confirms positive trend

Entry Zone:
• Buy on dips into $5,080 – $5,100 with confirmation on 15M or 1H oversold oscillator cross + SAR flip.
Targets:
• $5,200 – $5,220, then $5,300+
Stop:
• Below $5,050

Bearish / Pullback Scenario

Conditions:
✘ Failure to break/hold above $5,200
✘ Parabolic SAR flips above price (15M/1H)
✘ Stoch overbought on 15M/1H

Entry Zone:
• Scalp sell near resistance $5,200 – $5,220
Targets:
• $5,100 – $5,050
Stop:
• Above $5,230

Intraday Transition Logic

• Use Stochastic on 15M/1H for execution signals aligned with the trend.

• Parabolic SAR (15M) for entry/exit confirmation.

• EMA 20/50 on 4H for trend bias.

Price above both EMAs with momentum indicators supportive = trend-aligned intraday buy bias.

🤖 Trade Execution and Bring in... EAs

Handling multi-timeframe signals and combining indicator triggers manually can be challenging and prone to hesitation.

🔹 Emerge EA (Flagship)

Designed to:

• Detect trend direction using 20/50 EMA structure

• Filter bias with RSI/Stochastic

• Execute trend continuation and breakout entries

• Manage positions based on evolving price structure

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/161719

Perfect for days like today with trending conditions.

🔹 Minting EA

Focuses on:

• Precision intraday entries

• Machine-timed execution using oscillator extremes

• Short-term support/resistance trades

• Tight stops with Parabolic SAR cues

Ideal for scalps and fast moves within trend or correction.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/163355

Both EAs remove emotional timing errors and maintain discipline in execution — especially important on high-volatility fundamental days like today.

Summary – Today’s Bias

• Primary Bias: Bullish continuation as price holds above key pivot $5,100 and EMAs

• Support: $5,050 – $5,080

• Resistance: $5,200 – $5,220

• Trend Drivers: Tariff uncertainty, weak USD, safe-haven rotations