Brent: the positive dynamics will be preserved, despite the current correction

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude oil inventories in the US for the week of +4.854 million barrels. Nevertheless, this information almost did not affect the quotations of oil, futures for which increased by 35 cents, to 71.31 dollars per barrel following the results of trades on Nymex.

The spot price for Brent crude at the end of the trading day on Tuesday was near the mark of 77.90, after rising to new annual highs near the 79.25 dollars per barrel in the middle of the trading day.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, oil reserves in advanced economies fell to a three-year low.

In its monthly report, which closely follows the markets, the IEA reported a reduction in oil reserves in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in March compared to the previous month by 26.8 million barrels, to 62.819 billion barrels. This level is 1 million barrels below the 5-year average, which is used by participants to assess the process of market rebalancing. The efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to level the world's excess supply, which has put pressure on the oil market since the end of 2014, is bearing fruit.

Since the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, oil reserves in the OECD countries have fallen by 233 million barrels. As you know, OPEC and 10 oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, from the beginning of last year reduce the total oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day.

The market is also supported by geopolitical risks. Iran is the third largest OPEC oil producer, and in the past sanctions limited Iranian oil exports by about 1 million barrels a day. If the US now restores sanctions against the Islamic Republic (currently Iran exports about 2.4 million barrels a day), it will reduce OPEC's total production and further reduce the global supply.

At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.

Nevertheless, oil prices have so far suspended growth and declined from the highs for three and a half years on signs that the oil rally is beginning to weaken the growth in demand.

In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the forecast for growth in oil demand in 2018 was reduced to 1.4 million barrels per day against the previous estimate of 1.5 million barrels per day, including because of a significant price increase.

In the current year, Brent oil prices have increased by about 17%, and since 2016 prices have increased by approximately 2.6 times.

On Wednesday (at 14:30 GMT), the Ministry of Energy will provide official data on oil and petroleum products in the US. The stock is expected to decline by -0.763 million barrels, which will positively affect oil prices while confirming the forecast.

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Support levels: 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40, 72.00, 70.40, 70.00, 66.90, 64.80, 63.30, 58.00

Resistance levels: 78.50, 79.30, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 76.80. Stop-Loss 78.60. Take-Profit 76.00, 75.60, 75.00, 74.40, 73.40

Or Buy Limit 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40. Stop-Loss 72.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

Buy Stop 78.60. Stop-Loss 76.80. Take-Profit 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

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