The bears appear to have loosened their grip slightly, prompting a brief consolidative mode in EUR/USD, as focus shifts towards the US durable goods release for the next push lower.
EUR/USD: Eyes on Aug lows of 1.1662
The EUR/USD pair is headed for the first negative monthly close in seven weeks, as the outlook for the US interest rates look brighter, following the Fed’s hawkish Sept policy outcome, which was reinforced by hawkish comments delivered by the Fed Chairwoman Yellen in the US last session.
Yellen noted, ‘the Fed should be wary of moving too gradually ‘, suggesting that the pace of rate increases might potentially be faster than anticipated.
The sentiment around the greenback also remains lifted on the back of the latest news that Trump is likely to announce a cut in corporate tax to 20%. Meanwhile, positive European equities also weigh negatively on the funding currency Euro.
However, over the last hour, the spot is seen making minor-recovery attempts, in the wake of renewed buying seen around the EUR/JPY cross, which underpins the core pairs. Meanwhile, the US dollar stalled its upmove against its main competitors, further offering some respite to the bulls.
Markets now eagerly await the releases of the US durable goods and pending home sales data, which could bolster the recent USD strength. More so, speeches by the FOMC members Bullard and Brainard are also likely to offer fresh impetus to the USD bulls.
EUR/USD Technical Set-up
Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, noted: “EUR/USD has recently eroded the 5 month uptrend and the 1.1836/23 September lows and in doing so has negated the up move. We have minor Fibo support at 1.1736, but rallies from here are indicated to terminate circa 1.1850 and below here should trigger losses initially to the 1.1662 August low and then the mid-June high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low. Intraday rallies should fail ahead of 1.1919, the 20 day ma.”