The past week was dominated by strong US labour market data. The Nonfarm Payrolls report came in above market expectations, the unemployment rate remained at low levels, and wage growth confirmed the resilience of the US economy. As a result, market participants further reduced expectations of an early Federal Reserve rate cut. US Treasury yields moved higher, the dollar strengthened across the board, and the DXY index rose above the 100.00 level for the first time since April. Against this backdrop, the euro, gold, and cryptocurrencies came under significant pressure, while oil reacted relatively calmly.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1522, moving toward the lower part of the medium-term sideways range of 1.1400-1.1850. The stronger dollar following the US labour market data increased pressure on the European currency. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1580-1.1600, followed by 1.1670-1.1700. Support is located at 1.1500-1.1530, followed by 1.1445 and 1.1390-1.1410. As long as the price remains below 1.1600, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish. However, the 1.1400-1.1450 area continues to act as strong support within the medium-term range. In addition, after the sharp decline on Friday, June 05, a modest bullish correction cannot be ruled out.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
On Saturday, BTC/USD is trading around 60,800, marking its sharpest decline in recent weeks. A stronger dollar and reduced appetite for risk assets triggered large-scale profit-taking across the crypto market. The nearest resistance is now located at 65,000-66,000, followed by 69,300-71,000, 74,000-76,000 and 78,100-79,500. Support is located at 59,000-60,000. More distant targets are a move above 80,000 for the bulls and 54,000 and 49,000 for the bears. As long as BTC/USD remains below 65,000-66,000, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent closed the week slightly above 92.00 dollars per barrel. Despite the stronger dollar, oil prices received support from ongoing risks in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz. At present, oil continues to trade in the lower part of the medium-term range of 90.00-113.60. The nearest resistance is located at 94.00-95.00, followed by 97.00-98.00 and 100.00. Support is located at 90.00-91.00, followed by 88.50 and 84.50-86.00. As long as the price remains below 97.00-98.00, the scenario for Brent remains neutral.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed the week at 4,330 dollars per ounce, breaking below the 4,350 support level and coming under strong pressure following the release of US economic data. Rising yields and a stronger dollar significantly reduced the appeal of the precious metal. In our view, a temporary recovery toward the 4,450-4,500 area cannot be ruled out. The next resistance zones are 4,580-4,600 and 4,650-4,660. Support is located at 4,250-4,300, followed by 4,200 and 4,100. As long as prices remain below 4,450-4,500, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
During the coming week, market attention will focus on inflation data from the United States and Germany, the ECB interest rate decision, and UK GDP. On June 10, the US CPI and Core CPI reports will be released. On June 11, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference. On the same day, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data will also be published. On June 12, the market will receive Germany’s inflation data and UK GDP figures.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 1.1600. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 65,000-66,000. Brent – neutral below 97.00-98.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 4,450-4,500.
