Ahead we have UK CPI from which could be a major mover with US CPI later in the NY session. EURGBP long was stopped out on pound strength along with the recent Brexit poll that showed 55% to stay versus 40% to leave.
The minutes from the recent RBA meeting were released during the Asia-Pacific session. The release saw upside of 85 pips in Aussie given lack of commentary about further easing and the key sentence that “Members discussed the merits of adjusting policy at this meeting or awaiting further information before acting.” The realisation that the rate cut was a close call slightly reduces the expectation of further cuts and suggests the RBA are in wait and see mode for now. Nevertheless, persistently low inflation will force the hand of the Bank, regardless of their forward guidance. The key to remember is that inflation forecasts have been substantially downgraded and the RBA is not obliged to signal a future rate cut in their commentary.
New Zealand Inflation Expectations for 2 years out remained similar to the prior reading at 1.64% versus 1.63%. Chances of a June cut remain around 60% but we believe this is over-stated given the RBNZ’s concerns over stimulating the property market.