The past week showed a mixed performance across key markets. Thanks to a weaker dollar, the euro recovered part of its earlier losses, while bitcoin bounced from its August 3 lows. Oil prices, following “Trump’s command,” continued to fall, and gold strengthened amid strong safe-haven demand.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair ended last week near 1.1642, holding above key support despite a weakening bullish momentum. Moving averages remain in favour of the euro, but resistance around 1.1700 is capping gains. A test of this area is expected in the coming days, and a breakout higher would open the way toward 1.1760. Failure to hold above 1.1700 may trigger a pullback to 1.1550-1.1600, while a break below 1.1550 would reinforce downward pressure, targeting support in the 1.1390-1.1400 zone.
💹 BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed the week just above 116,900 after sellers capped the rally. Short-term pressure could lead to a move down toward 114,200-115,000, from where buyers may attempt to resume the uptrend. A successful rebound would target the 119,500-120,300 area. On the other hand, a break below 114,200 would pave the way for a deeper correction toward 111,000 and possibly lower.
🛢 Brent
Brent finished trading in a strong support/resistance zone at $65.78 per barrel, continuing its downward trend. Early in the week, a corrective move toward 68.00-69.00 is possible, but sellers may re-enter at those levels. A continuation of the bearish trend would open the way to 64.00-65.00, and then to 62.65–63.10. A break above 69.00 would shift the focus to further growth toward 70.00-70.75.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold ended last week around 3,399, supported by strong safe-haven flows. However, the pair remains within a sideways range of 3,255-3,440 and inside a medium-term triangle narrowing toward the 3,350 apex. In the coming days, the metal may test the upper boundary of this range. A confident close above 3,440 would signal a move toward new highs, while failure to break resistance could see a retreat toward 3,350 and, if the dollar strengthens, 3,255-3,290.
📈 Conclusion
This week, traders’ attention will focus on whether EUR/USD can stay above 1.1600, bitcoin can extend its bullish trend, Brent can defend the mid-$66 area, and gold can secure a close above 3,440. Moves beyond these levels could set the tone for the rest of August.
Among key macroeconomic releases, Tuesday, August 12 will bring US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI data – crucial for assessing interest-rate prospects. On Wednesday, Germany’s CPI figures are due, followed on Thursday, August 14 by US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Friday will feature US retail sales reports and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Also in focus is the potential extension of the US-China trade truce, which is set to expire on August 12.
