Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD - UBS
The following are UBS' latest short-term trading strategies for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD.
EUR/USD: The move higher last week didn't seem to be as painful as might have been expected, and we think the 450-pip move was due in part to a lack of liquidity. We prefer getting back into shorts at some point and see no reason to play the other side, even though we are sure there will be plenty of buyers lined up above 1.0750.
USD/JPY: After a strong US payrolls report on Friday the overall picture has not changed and there seems to be little reason for the Fed not to hike next week. Look to buy USDJPY on dips to 122.70/80, with a stop below 122.20.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: Interest has been low recently and the pair has been dragged around by EURGBP and EURUSD moves. Despite the disappointment from the ECB, we still think short EURGBP is in play and there are now better levels to go short the cross. Sell at 0.7200/10, with a stop above Friday's high of 0.7250. Sell GBPUSD at 1.5120/30, with a stop above 1.5170.
AUD/USD: is right in the middle of Friday's range. The rally on Friday didn't make too much sense to us and seemed to be driven by a general elimination of USD longs. We prefer playing the pair out of the short side in the run up to next week's Fed decision. Look to add on rallies towards 0.7400, with a stop through 0.7470. Support at 0.7310, 0.7280 and 0.7190. Employment data is due on Thursday.
