AUD/USD: long-term forecasts and trading ideas - bearish breakdown in 2015 and bearish ranging in 2016

AUD/USD: long-term forecasts and trading ideas - bearish breakdown in 2015 and bearish ranging in 2016

5 November 2015, 18:11
Sergey Golubev
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Goldman Sachs made long-term forecast for AUD/USD for 2016 stated that the price will be continuing with the bearish trend up to 0.69 at year-end: 

Instrument
Q1
Jan'16
Q2
Apr'16
Q4
Oct'16
AUD/USD
0.690
0.6700.670

As we see from the charts above (W1 timeframe and MN1 timeframe for AUD/USD) - 0.6916 is the key support level for this pair for both timeframes:

  • on W1 timeframe - symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction with 0.6916 as the key resistance level;
  • monthly chart - the price is on bearish with 0.6907 nearest bearish target.

Chinkou Span line is located below the price for the bearish trend to be continuing with the secondary ranging, and Ichimoku cloud together Senkou Span lines are far above the price which makes the bullish reversal to be impossible in this and next year for example.

Thus, the most likely scenario for this pair in the long-term situation is to break 0.690 support level from above to below up to 0.670 as the next bearish target.

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