The dollar remained weak last week after US CPI inflation slowed to 3.4%. EUR/USD tested the key 1.1580-1.1600 resistance zone on Friday, reached 1.1585 and closed near 1.1570. Gold hit a two-month high of 4,450 before correcting to 4,376. bitcoin fell from 65,100 to 62,830 amid ETF outflows. Brent stayed above 87 after jumping to 89.02 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets ended the week waiting for the Fed minutes.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair started at 1.1562, fell to 1.1511, then rose to 1.1585 on Friday and closed near 1.1570. On D1, it has been recovering from the June low of 1.1324, with the trend moderately bullish above 1.1500. Support: 1.1480-1.1520, then 1.1450 and 1.1325-1.1350. Resistance: 1.1580-1.1620, then 1.1660-1.1700 and 1.1800-1.1850. A sustained break above 1.1600 could open the way to 1.1660-1.1700; rejection could return the pair to 1.1480-1.1520.
🟠 bitcoin (BTC/USD)
bitcoin had its worst week of the month, falling from 65,100 to 62,830, with the price near 62,970 on Saturday. Support at 63,700 was lost, while spot ETF outflows continued for a third day, totalling around $57.6 million. BTC has traded within 62,000-67,000 since late July. Support: 62,000-62,500, then 57,700-60,000 near the June-July base and yearly low. Resistance: 65,000-65,500, then 66,900-67,300 and 70,000. A break below 62,000-62,500 could open the way to 57,700-60,000; a return above 65,000-65,500 could lead to 66,900-67,300.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent rose from 82.40 to 89.02 on geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz and closed near 88.5. The early-August low of 77.70 marked a reversal, while the break above 84.00-85.00 restored the bullish scenario. Support: 84.00-85.00, then 80.00 and 77.70-78.00. Resistance: 89.50-90.00, then 93.00, 96.00 and 100.00. Above 84.00, the outlook remains bullish, with targets at 89.50-90.00 and 93.00-94.00. De-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a correction to 84.00-85.00.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains supported by softer Fed expectations, although the week ended with a correction. Starting from 4,340, XAU/USD reached a two-month high of 4,450 on Thursday, then fell to 4,310 on Friday and closed near 4,376. After the June low of 3,942, gold formed a base at 4,000-4,200 and broke towards 4,450 in August. Support: 4,300-4,350, then 4,200-4,250 and 3,960-4,015. Resistance: 4,400-4,450, then 4,500-4,550. Above 4,300, the outlook remains bullish. Consolidation near 4,400-4,450 could strengthen momentum, while a sustained break above 4,450-4,500 could open the way to 4,550.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends for the Week
The focus will be the Fed minutes on Wednesday, 19 August, together with CPI inflation from the Eurozone and the UK. US jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index follow on Thursday, 20 August. Preliminary PMI business activity data from the Eurozone, the UK and the US will be released on Friday. For oil, geopolitics remains key, as Strait of Hormuz developments may outweigh macroeconomic data.
Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bullish above 1.1500: above 1.1600, the target is 1.1660-1.1700; rejection could return it to 1.1480-1.1520. BTC/USD – bearish: below 62,000-62,500, the target is 57,700-60,000; above 65,000-65,500 – 66,900-67,300. Brent – bullish: targets at 89.50-90.00 and 93.00-94.00, with a correction possible if Strait of Hormuz tensions ease. XAU/USD – bullish above 4,300: a break above 4,450-4,500 could open the way to 4,550.
